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The fact Republicans have to work so hard in a district Trump won by double digits does not portend well for the GOP, Eric Garcia writes
Monday 01 December 2025 17:46 GMTComments
CloseGOP House majority would shrink further with upset loss in Tennessee election
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A congressional race in Tennessee has become surprisingly competitive, and tomorrow’s election could be a big sign of where President Donald Trump stands with the country - and the battle his party could face in 2026.
The Tennessee 7th district is one the president won by 22 points in 2024, but just a year later, a Democrat is putting up a serious bid to wrestle control of the seat from Republicans. It would not only be an embarrassing defeat for the president, but would move the U.S. House of Representatives closer to a Democratic majority.
Over the weekend, Trump gave an additional boost to Matt Van Epps, the Republican, hoping to keep the district in the party’s hands. He also spoke at a tele-rally hosted by Speaker Mike Johnson on Monday.
“To the Great People of Tennessee’s 7th District, who gave me Record Setting Wins in each of three Elections, I am asking you to get out and VOTE FOR MATT VAN EPPS. HE WILL BE A GREAT CONGRESSMAN and, unlike his Opponent, he cherishes Christianity and Country Music — She hates them both! This is a very pivotal Election. The whole World is watching. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”
The endorsement would be totally normal in a highly contested race between Van Epss and Democrat Aftyn Behn. But the 7th district, which includes parts of Nashville and a sizable rural population and heavily backed Trump in the presidential election, it was never supposed to be competitive.
Trump’s endorsement is a sign that the momentum that propelled Democrats to massive victories in New Jersey, Virginia, Georgia and California last month shows no signs of slowing down. And there are signs of how much Trump is checked out in terms of helping the GOP bench - case in point, on Monday, he literally phoned in an appearance in Franklin, Tennessee, to drum up support for Van Epps.
open image in galleryRepublican Matt Van Epps hopes to hold a district that voted for Trump by 22 points. He is facing Democrat Aftyn Behn who has made the race surprisingly competitive. (Club For Growth)"She said two things above all else that bothered me. No 1: She hates Christianity. No 2: She hates country music,” Trump told the crowd. “How the hell can you elect a person like that? I just want to give my total support — and he's had it right from the beginning — to Matt Van Epps."
The Democrats are bringing out the big guns too. Behn will hold a rally with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.). Democrats ranging from Jamie Raskin to Stacey Abrams have sent money from their political action committees Behn’s way. Former vice president Al Gore, who once served as a senator from Tennessee, will also join in the rally with Behn.
As of right now, Republicans have only 219 votes in the U.S. House. That number will go down to 218 when Marjorie Taylor Greene resigns from Congress next month. It could also drop by one more if Behn wins this week. Democrats will almost inevitably add two seats to their 213-seat caucus after special elections next year in Texas and New Jersey to fill vacancies.
A 218-216 split would essentially grind the House of Representatives to a halt even more than Johnson already has.
Regardless of how this race turns out, the fact Republicans have to work this hard in a district they held by double digits just 13 months ago is bad news for them ahead of 2026 midterm elections.
open image in galleryDemocratic congressional candidate and State Rep. Aftyn Behn, attends a campaign event with her supporters in Nashville, Tennessee on Saturday. (AP)Take the generic ballot, which measures whether voters would prefer to vote for a generic Democrat or Republican for Congress in an election.
Last month, a survey from Marist College, NPR and PBS found that Democrats had a 14-point lead in the generic, which would almost certainly give them a decent majority in the House of Representatives.
That might be on the generous side. But an Economist/YouGov survey found that Democrats have a five-point lead. Only 38 percent of voters approve of the president, an eight-point drop since February when a plurality of Americans approved of him.
Another reason for Republicans to be alarmed? The same survey showed 51 percent of men disapprove of Trump. In February, 53 percent of men approved of him. His disapproval among Hispanics went down from 50 percent to 62 percent. And his approval among young people between the ages of 18 and 29 went down from 42 percent to 29 percent.
Regardless of how many times Republicans say it, midterms are and always have been referendums on the president in power.
The upcoming 2026 midterm is not just a normal six-year itch midterm where a president’s party gets blown out; because Trump has been on the national stage for a decade, next year’s midterm could be a ten-year itch where voters are finally just exhausted with Trump.
All of this portends for a rough 11 months ahead of the 2026 midterms. It does not guarantee that Democrats will win back the majority. But they could take one step closer to gaining control with a win in Tennessee that ten months ago, nobody thought was possible.
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