Are the Bears really worthy of the No. 1 seed in the NFC?

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Ben Johnson’s impact on the Bears offense has already been profound, that much is abundantly clear. Chicago has moved from 28th in the NFL in scoring, to 8th — lifted their passing offense from 31st to 16th, and rushing from 25th to 2nd. The first year head coach has been every bit the offensive genius we knew him as while in Detroit, while also instilling the confidence required to turn good performances into wins.

Chicago’s improvement took on a new light this week after defeating the reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles on the road on Friday, and then vaulting into the No. 1 seed in the NFC when the Carolina Panthers upset the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday. The lingering question is: Do they deserve this lofty ranking, or stumble into it by default?

It’s a tricky question to answer. On the one hand the Bears beat the Eagles to earn this spot, giving their resume the signature win it was desperately missing. However, there’s still this pervasive feeling that Chicago have been huge benefactors of a comically easy schedule which has allowed them to face the softest competition in the NFC up to this point — with the biggest tests of the season still before them. Does that mean the Bears are really the best team in the NFC, or simply temporary caretakers of the position?

Theres no dancing around how easy the 2025 season has been for the Bears when it comes to their opponents. It’s certainly fair to appreciate a team can only play the games on its calendar, and it takes skill to win in the NFL regardless of your opponent — but Chicago has a -3.0 strength of schedule rating this season, over a point weaker than the next easiest schedule in the conference, and second weakest in the entire NFL after the New England Patriots.

Teams the Bears have beaten in 2025 have a combined record of 37-70-1, an average opponent record of 4-8. There are only three wins on their schedule which have come against a team with a .500 record or better. Two of those wins have crucially come in back-to-back weeks with the Steelers and Eagles, showing progress — but it’s very difficult to take a 9-3 record seriously when a bulk of those wins have come against the likes of the Raiders, Saints, Giants, Commanders, and Bengals.

Not only has the schedule broken easy for Chicago, but they’ve faced some of their most difficult opponents at a time where injury has forced out quarterbacks or other key players that would have made the game tougher.

The Bears defense is extremely mediocre. While offensively the team has soared, defensively they’ve allowed a horrific number of explosive plays. Chicago ranks 25th in points allowed this season, they’re 22nd against the pass, 28th against the run, and rank 26th in the NFL with a paltry 23.0 sacks on the season.

These numbers are all really, really bad — and they’re accentuated by the horrible schedule the Bears have faced. It would be one thing to be a bottom-third defensive team while facing some of the league’s best teams, but to put out this kind of defense while facing juggernauts like Tyler Shough, J.J. McCarthy, and Geno Smith just isn’t indicative of a high-level conference team, let alone 1st in the NFC.

Right now the Bears live an die on defense by turnovers. They lead the NFL with a +17 differential, which is astoundingly good — but also largely a product of playing so many bad teams. That will condense and become much more difficult against better teams in the league.

The raw rankings aren’t kind, but neither are a majority of advanced metrics when we stack the Bears up against other teams in the NFL right now.

• 14th in Dropback EPA
• 3rd in Rush EPA
• 9th in total offensive EPA
• 18th in Dropback EPA allowed
• 21st in Rush EPA allowed
• 19th in total defensive EPA
• Caleb Williams is 27th in QB EPA+CPOE composite

This looks really bleak, and in a lot of ways it is. However, when it comes to EPA metrics it’s important to note that very few teams really excel in every area, with the majority of NFL teams being really great in one area, and poor in another. So when we take this in totality the Bears are well above the average line offensively, very below average defensively — but the offense is good enough to put Chicago in as a tier four team.

Yes, “tier four” sounds bad as well, but this puts them in the same range as the Eagles, 49ers, Broncos, and Cowboys — but below the likes of the Lions, Bills, Packers, and Rams.

There’s a middle ground where we can have real discourse about the state of the Bears. This is a team that has drastically outperformed expectations this season when it comes to wins and losses, but they are absolutely not an elite team across the NFL. This should be absolutely acceptable.

2025 was supposed to be a building year for the Bears, a pivot to the Ben Johnson era, and establishing the foundation for the future. It wasn’t supposed to be about Chicago becoming one of the best teams in the NFL overnight. Their record has them in that position, but beating up a lot of mediocre teams can get you to the playoffs — but set up a rude awakening.

There’s still a glimmer of hope for this season, but that’s on the Bears. The next five weeks have Chicago facing the Packers twice, the Lions, and the 49ers — with another easy contest against the Browns. If he Bears can at least win two of those difficult four contests it will show they have the ability to hang with legitimate playoff teams, rather than a one-off win. It will also establish Chicagos future in the playoffs.

Make no mistake: There is a nightmare scenario here too. Despite being 1st in the NFC right now, the Bears have a 76% chance of making the playoffs, the worst of any team inside the bubble. If Chicago loses all four of those tough games, then the win over the Browns won’t be enough to push them to the postseason. There would be a very real chance that the Lions would jump inside the bubble and push them out.

Time will tell, but right now it’s difficult to see the Bears are a true, No. 1 worthy team in the NFC right now. They’ve reached this point due to circumstance, and deserve flowers for the progression they’ve made — but we can stop short of completely drinking the burnt orange and navy blue KoolAid without being a hater.

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