Value of Things: By the Numbers

Another week and another improbable Texans victory. If you had told the fan base that the Texans would be 7-5 at this point in the season at the beginning of the year, it would have made a ton of sense. This has been a 10-7 football team two years in a row and 7-5 points to 10-7 when you look at the remaining schedule. Obviously, there is an outside chance of 9-8 or 11-6 but I think everyone knows the score at this point.

When you look at how the Texans have done it then it doesn’t make a ton of sense. Sure, they win playing strong defense and opportunistic football. That has been the Texans modus operandi for over a decade. Specifically, it was the 0-3 start and 3-5 low point that makes it improbable. Naturally, no one predicted that the Colts, Broncos, Seahawks, and Rams would be THAT good. It is all part of the fun of playing in the NFL. The five teams beating the Texans have averaged nearly nine wins so far on the season. Maybe that number means more than any other.

The Numbers

• Total Yards: Texans 71/364, Colts 51/281

• Rushing Yards: Texans 34/108, Colts 23/86

• Passing Yards: Texans 37/256, Colts 28/195

• Third Down Efficiency: Texans 6/13, Colts 3/10

• Fourth Down Efficiency: Texans 0/2, Colts 0/2

• Sacks: Texans 1, Colts 2

• Turnovers: Texans 1, Colts 0

• Penalties: Texans 9/85, Colts 5/33

• Time of Possession: Texans 34:58, Colts 25:02

It is difficult to win when you don’t possess the football. The DeMeco Ryans blueprint for victory has been pretty clear all season. You possess the ball longer than your opponents by getting off the field and not allowing them to run plays. I’m sure if someone were so inclined, they could do an over/under on plays run in Texans victories and see a stark difference.

When you are a combined 3 for 12 on third and fourth down you are not going to have a good day. The Colts did not have a good day offensively. It wasn’t a terrible day offensively. Taylor had over 100 yards from scrimmage because he usually will. Daniel Jones threw a couple of touchdown passes because he has become a better than average quarterback. Competent NFL offenses make plays every Sunday. You limit the plays and you limit the number of chunk plays they will make.

The Great

By virtue of the Rams giving up 31 points, the Texans regain their lead on points given up per game. It’s another week and another game where the defense gives up less than 20 points. When you do that consistently you end up winning more games than you lose. Even the Texans offense (which we will get to shortly) can’t foul that up often enough to make you a losing football team. Erase the first half interception and they may very well have shut the Colts out in the first half.

Some weeks you sack the quarterback eight times. Some weeks you turn the other team over three or four times. Some weeks you just quietly limit the most dynamic back in football. Jonathan Taylor should get MVP votes this year. He won’t, but he should. Bill Belicheck made his bones by figuring out a way to take away a team’s top threat. DeMeco Ryans and Matt Burke are quickly setting up a similar resume. They will have a tough one next week in Patrick Mahomes, but we have seen this team do it too many times not to believe they can do it again.

The Good

This Sunday was quite the day to shake off rust, but C.J. Stroud played a solid B to B- game on Sunday. Obviously, the defense gets the kudos for making that enough to win the game. Before the Davis Mills truthers get going, we can dispense with the nonsense that Mills would have performed better in this football game. Yes, Stroud had the pick and it is a throw he would gladly take back, but he completed nearly two thirds of his passes and got better as the game went along.

I’ll get to some other things here in a minute, but he and his receivers did good enough to win the football game. In particular, Nico Collins has reclaimed his rightful place as a number one target. If he finishes the season as he has done for the last month he will end up with nearly 1200 yards receiving and seven total touchdowns. Jayden Higgins is on pace to eclipse 50 catches and five touchdowns. Nobody should be working on a bust for Canton based on those numbers alone, but plenty of rookie receivers have put up lukewarm numbers only to explode after year one. Dalton Schultz is having his best season as a pro. Those combination of pass catchers make this a pretty darn good passing offense.

The Bad

My feeble math skills tell me that 108 yards in 34 carries equals less than 3.2 yards per carry. Sure, you did three tush pushes with Cade Stover. That can account for some of the issues. Fine, we will take those three carries away and given you 106 yards on 31 carries. That’s a robust 3.4 yards per carry. Let’s get ESPN and all of the other national networks on the phone to tell them about the great running attack in Houston.

Now, to be perfectly fair, Woody Marks had some gutsy runs and no more gutsy in the last drive of the game when they needed a first down. This is not an indictment on Marks, Chubb, or any running back from the ghosts of Texans team’s past. We have spent much of the season blaming Nick Caley and I suppose that will continue, but maybe it is DeMeco. Maybe he wants to be a smashmouth football team and he simply doesn’t have the horses to get it done.

As noted above, you have a good, young quarterback, two good wide receivers, a pass catching tight end, and a dynamic back out of the backfield. You also have a veteran wide receiver that has hardly been involved in the offense and another rookie that seems to make electric plays the few times he gets his hand on the ball. The Texans are fighting their identity. I get what DeMeco wants. I get why he wants it. I don’t think they are THAT far away from making it happen. You get one or two more linemen (or different linemen) and an additional dynamic back and you can become THAT team. You aren’t getting those players in December. You aren’t becoming THAT team now. You might as well run the offense around what you do have. You have the makings of a good passing attack. You might as well steer into it.