Utah State vs Boise State Preview

Utah State (6-5) (4-3) faces off against Boise State (7-4) (5-2) on Black Friday in a big-time Mountain West matchup. As of right now, there is a three-way tie for second place in the Mountain West. With a win over UNLV, the Aggies would have been in a good position, but as of right now, the Aggies are tied with Hawaii and Fresno State in the Mountain West standings. The Broncos are tied with New Mexico and UNLV, but the Broncos own tie-breakers over both the Lobos and the Rebels.

In their last game against Colorado State, Boise State had 533 total yards of offense. The Broncos allowed 332 total yards and 293 yards passing. Colorado State had 39 yards rushing, but did average 6.4 yards per pass. Colorado State had four turnovers with three interceptions and a fumble. The Broncos also committed quite a few penalties on defense, nine penalties in total for 95 yards. Boise State was able to get its running game going again with 279 rushing yards, and the Broncos also had 32 first downs and controlled the time of possession 36:55 to 23:05.

Utah State, in a 28-17 win over Fresno State, had 403 total yards of offense and 227 rushing yards. The Aggies allowed 365 yards, with 187 passing yards and 178 rushing yards. Utah State committed 7 penalties for 40 yards and controlled the clock 33:04 to 26:56, even while committing two turnovers. Utah State averaged 5.5 yards per pass and 4.8 yards per rush. The Aggies went 8-16 (50%) on 3rd Down and held Fresno State to 3-14 (21%).

This is the first time that Utah State and Boise State are meeting on Black Friday since the 2022 season, when the Broncos walked out of Logan with a 42-23 win.

Game Information

Date: Friday, November 28th

Time: 2:00 P.M. MST

TV Channel: CBS

Line (Provided by Draftkings Sportsbook): Boise State (-3)

Series history: Boise State leads the overall series 24-5 in a mostly dominant fashion. The longest losing streak in the series for the Aggies was 12 games from 1998 to 2014. The Broncos are currently on a nine-game win streak, and none of those games have been truly close. The largest win for the Aggies in the series came in 2015, when the Broncos committed an alarming eight turnovers. Utah State is 2-11 at home and 3-13 on the road with a conference record of 3-20. Utah State has won on the blue turf just once, and without the 2015 win, Utah State would be on a 22-game losing streak to the Broncos. The last time Boise State played Utah State, the Broncos won 62-30 in Boise, and Ashton Jeanty ran all over the Aggies. In 2023, Utah State lost to Boise State 45-10 in a game that turned the entire season around for the Broncos, as after this win, the Broncos would beat New Mexico and earn a Mountain West championship over UNLV. This will be the 30th overall game in the series between the Aggies and Broncos.

Three Keys to the Game

1. Stop the Boise State run game

Boise State has a very productive run game, and the Broncos lean heavily on it. They have been trying to use Dylan Riely more as the explosive back, but they do add in Sire Gaines and Malik Sherrod to change up the running style. Utah State’s run defense has struggled this season. If the Aggies begin to struggle with bringing down Dylan Riley, specifically with the explosive speed, they are going to find themselves in trouble quickly. Utah State needs to come up with a plan to stop the Boise State run, or at least slow it down enough to get the Broncos off the field on 3rd Down.

2. Make Max Cutforth uncomfortable

Making Max Cutforth uncomfortable is going to be very important to winning this football game. Cutforth had a very shaky game against Fresno State as he was thrown in after Maddux Madsen was injured. Against San Diego State, Max Cutforth did not get much of a shot. When he was given his chance at the end of the game, Cutforth played decently. Against Colorado State, Max Cutforth passed for 239 yards on 22 completions and 34 attempts. The key thing to do is to make Max Cutforth uncomfortable. Against Fresno State, Cutforth was uncomfortable and threw for just 106 yards and 14 completions, throwing a touchdown and two interceptions. If Boise State struggles in the run game and Max Cutforth looks uncomfortable, this will turn into a very long night for the Boise State offense.

3. Use Bryson Barnes and the big play connection

One of the areas in which Utah State has really succeeded this year is creating explosive plays. Utah State has done a really strong job of making connections between Bryson Barnes and the rest of the receivers. This is something that Utah State needs to be able to use to its advantage. While the Boise State defense has become a little better at limiting explosive plays, they are still susceptible. This would be a quick way to put pressure onto Boise State and their offense, which seems to struggle under pressure. It would also help to take the pressure off the Utah State defense, too. If Boise State is able to get their run game going and is consistently moving down the field, then Utah State is going to need to find ways on offense to keep up with the Broncos.

Final Thoughts and Score Prediction

Utah State is in a similar position to the 2023 season, where they don’t really have a shot for the conference championship, but they have an opportunity to play spoiler. The last time Utah State tried to play spoiler, the Broncos came to Logan and won in a blowout. This Utah State team is a lot different than that 2023 team, they are much more disciplined and experienced. This is also not the same Boise State team from the 2023 season.

The Broncos have struggled similar to the way that they did during the 2023 season, but the 2025 version of Boise State seems to be in better position than the 2023 team. The Broncos seem like they turned a corner last week against Colorado State, and while the Rams are nto a good football team this year, there were clear adjustments being made to find success moving forward. The Broncos are still without key players such as Maddux Madsen, Jake Steele, Hall Schmidt, Chase Martin, Ben Ford, and A’Marion McCoy, the Broncos do have key players also returning. Chris Marshall will be back, which could prove to be big problems for Utah State. Boise State also keeps Latrell Caples for this week and the running back room is in a healthy position. With Max Cutforth getting more experience under his belt he is poised to continue to build confidence and execute even better than he was already doing.

Utah State should be able to hang around in this game, but Boise State finds enough consistency on offense to pull away from the Aggies late into the second half.

Score Prediction: Boise State: 42; Utah State: 28