The Result of Nebraska Football’s Black Friday Game Against Iowa is Not a Referendum on Progress

Today Steven Sipple of Husker Online wrote about the importance of this upcoming game against Iowa for Nebraska football. He makes some good points about the recent dominance of Iowa over Nebraska including six straight losses in Lincoln.

However, we act like it is only Iowa that has had Nebraska’s number over the past decade. Some of us have forgotten that just about everybody in the Big Ten has had Nebraska’s number over that same time span. It wasn’t until last year that Nebraska finally beat Wisconsin. Prior to last year’s win over Wisconsin, the Badgers had won 11 of the prior 12 meetings.

So now, with Iowa lurking this coming Friday, we are going to apparently use one game against a rival as a referendum on the progress of a football program. This is something I cannot get behind and I probably never will.

Last season, Nebraska controlled the game in Iowa City. But Iowa did what Iowa does and they just hang around. Then with 14:44 left in the game Iowa threw a swing pass to Kaleb Johnson and then Johnson broke at least five tackles and took it to the house. It was a 72 yard touchdown pass. If you take away that touchdown pass, then Iowa’s quarterback Jackson Stratton finishes with 43 yards passing.

If you take away that 72 yard touchdown pass then Iowa finishes with 92 yards of total offense. But Iowa won on a walk-off field goal and they moved to 8-4 on the 2025 season and Nebraska went 6-6.

If one of those tacklers gets Kaleb Johnson to the ground then Nebraska likely wins that game. Then all the sudden we “feel” better about the progress of the program even though everything else and everybody else remains the same.

A question I have for anybody reading this is the following: This coming Friday the game could come down to the last couple of possessions. Let’s say it is a tied game and Nebraska forces a punt. Jacory Barney catches it at the Nebraska 20 yard line and returns it for a touchdown. The play is an all-timer and superhero effort from Barney. It ends up winning Nebraska the game.

Now, lets flip the coin. Nebraska punts it to Iowa’s Kaden Wetjen (who is excellent) and he returns it for a game winning touchdown.

Outside of either of those plays, everything else remains the same. It is just that in one universe it is Jacory Barney who made the play and in the other universe it is Kaden Wetjen. And in both universes, everything else is the same as far as player development, coaching development, strategy, strength and conditioning and recruiting. Everything else is the same except for one play.

Now, we use the result of the game (or the result of one play) to be act as a conclusive indicator of progress or the lack thereof? I simply cannot get behind that line of thinking.

So how do we judge the progress of a football program? Well I think you have to take everything into account. That includes every game, every position group and the overall composition of the football team. This is a discussion that can go on for an entire off-season.

With that said, if Iowa comes into Lincoln and does what Penn State did last Saturday then the tone of the discussion changes. This is also true if Nebraska finds a way to win this game walking away by double digits. If there are multiple freak plays which result in a lopsided score, then you put it aside if you are able.

That is for another article but I do want to say the following: It appears to me that the lack of size and strength on the defensive line is going to make or break this program. Last Saturday against Penn State it looked like it was a bunch of experienced seniors on Penn State’s offensive line going against a bunch of freshmen and sophomores on Nebraska’s defensive line.

This is not an excuse. This is simply a fact. The concern for me is that I am not convinced the solution is on the current roster. I hope I am wrong. I hope these young Nebraska defensive linemen continue to put on weight and strength and learn a lot from this 2025 season.

Rhule and his staff may have made a ton of progress throughout his program but it apparently does not matter if you get gashed on the ground. That is unless you’re able to put up 40 points a game which currently is not in the cards.

Sipple made the point that I have heard a few times regarding Nebraska’s best win this season. Here is what he says:

We can break down Nebraska’s season statistically when all the hay is in the barn. For now, allow me to point out that the Huskers have benefited this season from an eminently manageable schedule. Their best win came in the opener, a 20-17 decision against Cincinnati — which has now dropped three straight games to fall to 7-4 (5-3 Big 12).

If Nebraska’s best win isn’t against Cincinnati, it’s against Northwestern (6-5, 4-4). That’s where we’re at, Husker fans.

With the exception of Minnesota, which game that Nebraska lost did you expect they would win? In fact, right now the win-loss record is exactly as I predicted prior to this season. I picked losses against Michigan, Minnesota, USC and Penn State. For what is is worth, I did pick Nebraska to beat Iowa in that article. Have I changed my mind? Probably.

That Minnesota game, in my view, is closer to a referendum on the program than this Iowa game. That was a bad one.

Still, I think Rhule has moved this program several steps in the right direction. Beating Iowa might allow that train to move a little faster.

“If we win this football game Friday, it would be a heck of a step for us,” Rhule said Monday. “But no matter what, we know where we’re headed and what direction we’re going.”

I think he’s right.