ESPN predicts the winner of Alabama football vs Auburn at Jordan-Hare

The Alabama Crimson Tide head into the 90th edition of the Iron Bowl rivalry needing a win over the Auburn Tigers in Week 14 of the 2025 college football season Saturday to send coach Kalen DeBoer's team to Atlanta for the SEC championship game.

A loss and Alabama is likely heading to the Citrus Bowl, or another second-tier postseason contest.

Alabama (9-2 overall, 6-1 SEC) and Auburn (5-6, 1-6) both picked up wins over opponents from the Football Championship Subdivision last Saturday. The Crimson Tide defeated Eastern Illinois, 56-0, to close the home portion of their regular season schedule.

Auburn defeated Mercer, 62-17, behind a freshman quarterback in former five-star recruit Deuce Knight (four rushing touchdowns, two passing).

Alabama is No. 10 in both the US LBM Coaches Poll and the latest College Football Playoff rankings, unveiled on Tuesday; Auburn is unranked.

Will Alabama beat Auburn? ESPN's prediction

Oddsmakers have Alabama as a 5 1/2 point favorite over Auburn, but as always, ESPN analytics has its own odds for Saturday's game.

ESPN's matchup predictor, which offers a prediction model based on its college football power index and other variables, gives Alabama a 73.5% chance to win and Auburn a 26.5% chance.

The Crimson Tide are fifth in ESPN's latest FPI, up one spot from last week. Alabama has a 21.8 overall rating, which is up from the 21.6 before its win over Eastern Illinois. Auburn has an 11.6 rating that's 24th in ESPN's metrics.

Alabama football odds of reaching 2025 CFP with win over Auburn

According to ESPN's Allstate Playoff Predictor, Alabama would have an 82% chance to reach the College Football Playoff with a win over Auburn at Jordan-Hare Stadium. That's even if the Crimson Tide were to lose a hypothetical SEC championship game contest.

In ESPN's FPI ratings entering Week 14, Alabama's chances of reaching the 12-team College Football Playoff sit at 68%. That's up from 62% after the Crimson Tide's loss to Oklahoma.

Alabama is currently given a 38.8% chance of winning the SEC title (up from 35.5% last week), an 8.2% chance to reach the national championship game on Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami (up from 7.4% last week), and a 4.1% shot of winning the national title (up from 3.6% last week).

Alabama trails the Ohio State Buckeyes (28.1), Indiana Hoosiers (26.6), Notre Dame Fighting Irish (24.9), and Oregon Ducks (24.4) in the latest FPI ratings. The Crimson Tide jumped one spot ahead of the Georgia Bulldogs (21.7) from last week.

SEC football teams ranked by ESPN FPI entering Week 14

After Week 13, Alabama (narrowly) returned to the top spot among SEC teams in ESPN's FPI ratings. Here's a look at where the Crimson Tide and other conference teams now sit in the FPI entering the final weekend of the regular season.

• 16. Mississippi State Bulldogs (5.7 FPI)

• 15. Florida Gators (7.3 FPI)

• 14. Kentucky Wildcats (7.7 FPI)

• 13. Arkansas Razorbacks (7.8 FPI)

• 12. South Carolina Gamecocks (10.8 FPI)

• 11. LSU Tigers (11.3 FPI)

• 10. Auburn Tigers (11.6 FPI)

• 9. Missouri Tigers (14.0 FPI)

• 8. Vanderbilt Commodores (16.5 FPI)

• 7. Tennessee Volunteers (17.0 FPI)

• 6. Oklahoma Sooners (17.3 FPI)

• 5. Ole Miss Rebels (18.0 FPI)

• 4. Texas Longhorns (18.2 FPI)

• 3. Texas A&M Aggies (19.6 FPI)

• 2. Georgia Bulldogs (21.7 FPI)

• 1. Alabama Crimson Tide (21.8 FPI)

What is ESPN College Football Power Index (FPI)?

ESPN explains:

"The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete."

Alabama football vs. Auburn start time, TV information for Iron Bowl

Kickoff for Alabama-Auburn in Week 14 of the 2025 college football season is 6:30 p.m. CT Saturday at Jordan-Hare Stadium. The game can be seen on ABC. Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit will call the game for ABC. Holly Rowe will report from the sidelines.

Alabama football schedule 2025

All start times Central.

• Aug. 30: at Florida State (L, 31-17)

• Sept. 6: vs. UL Monroe (W, 73-0)

• Sept. 13: vs. Wisconsin (W, 38-14)

• Sept. 27: at Georgia (W, 24-21)

• Oct. 4: vs. Vanderbilt (W, 30-14)

• Oct. 11: at Missouri (W, 27-24)

• Oct. 18: vs. Tennessee (W, 37-20)

• Oct. 25: at South Carolina (W, 29-22)

• Nov. 8: vs. LSU (W, 20-9)

• Nov. 15: vs. Oklahoma (L, 23-21)

• Nov. 22 vs. Eastern Illinois (W, 56-0)

• Nov. 29: at Auburn, 6:30 p.m., ABC

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This article originally appeared on Roll Tide Wire: Alabama football odds of beating Auburn in Week 14 Iron Bowl, per ESPN