Fantasy Football Week 13 Target Trends: Does Terry McLaurin's electric return signal he'll be a playoff difference maker?

Once a week during the NFL season, I dig into the pass-game data and try to figure out what trends matter at wide receiver, tight end and running back. Let’s open up the spreadsheets and see what we find.

Cardinals passing game

I’m going to be sad when this Arizona season is over. Mind you, the team isn’t going anywhere — they’re 3-9, one of the punching bags of the year. But the Cardinals have also been a full-fledged carnival since Jacoby Brissett took over, and it’s been glorious.

To put a frame on it, let’s take Brissett’s seven starts and apply them to a full season. Here’s what you'll get:

• 495 completions (NFL record)

• 731 pass attempts (two off NFL record)

• 5,313 passing yards (fourth all-time)

Sure, an extra game helps. But even the 312.6 yards per game would rank 18th all-time. Volume for the win. And it should be noted, Kyler Murray averaged just 192.4 yards passing for his five starts.

Trey McBride has obviously benefited from Brissett’s game. McBride is not only the runaway TE1 over the Brissett sample (ranking 6.5 points better per week than Travis Kelce), but he would be the WR2 in this period if you lumped all the wideouts and tight ends together. Only Jaxon Smith-Njigba runs ahead of McBride.

In other words, Trey McBride, league-winner.

Marvin Harrison Jr. hasn’t been as fun with Brissett, in part due to availability. Harrison did look solid last week (6-69-0) before suffering a late heel injury. The quirky thing is, Michael Wilson’s ceiling without Harrison in the lineup is probably higher than Harrison’s ceiling when everyone plays. Wilson was the WR2 and WR10 right before Harrison returned; he fell to 3-36-0 (seven targets) last week.

Wilson regains Circle of Trust privileges if Harrison can't go in Week 14. Greg Dortch would also regain some sleeper juice.

Arizona’s finishing fantasy schedule is a mixed bag: the Rams aren’t ideal for this week, and the Texans are a nightmare for next week. If you can survive that, Atlanta and Cincinnati are holiday presents for the end of the month. But even in the harder part of that schedule, I’m projecting a respectable floor with Brissett & Co. They haven’t let us down for seven weeks, and sometimes you simply stick with what’s working.

Terry McLaurin’s return

As a football fan, it was nice just to see McLaurin back on a football field last week. He’s had a lost season due to injury. The Commanders lived a charmed year last season, winning so many coin-flip games. This year, they’ve hit all the red lights.

But I’m not sure exactly how to process McLaurin’s production out of the box. For sure, the surface stats look amazing. He absorbed 14 targets, he posted a 7-96-1 line, he charted as the WR9. Those are all wins.

But that bottom line was extremely fortuitous. With Washington and Denver needing overtime, the Commanders ran 90 offensive plays. In an average week, an NFL team gets about 60-63 plays. And McLaurin’s 14 targets were a borderline miracle given that he played on a modest 46 snaps (basically half) and ran a route on 33 of 55 dropbacks. If those usage rates don’t rise, McLaurin’s going to pay some regression tax in Week 14.

On Thursday I’ll be writing up the passing-game schedules for the fantasy playoffs. McLaurin has a lot to look forward to. The Giants (fourth-most WR points allowed) call in Week 15 and the Cowboys (first in WR points allowed) wait in Week 17. The Eagles are a neutral draw in the middle of that (and Minnesota is not ideal this week). Mix it all together and a healthy McLaurin can be a right answer. Heck, maybe we’ll see Jayden Daniels return, too.

Ashton Jeanty’s safety net

The Raiders are another team going nowhere. It’s possible they’ll completely reboot the franchise after the year, changing the coaching staff and the quarterback. It’s hard to believe the Raiders somehow beat New England in Week 1. Las Vegas is 1-10 since, the only victory against the horrible Titans.

But at least Jeanty has kept some consistent value. And lately, it’s tied to his receiving work.

Jeanty checked in as the RB17 through his first seven games. Jeanty’s early value was mostly tied to weekly rushing volume and some touchdown deodorant (five scores). The Raiders ignored him as a receiver through this period — 86 piddly receiving yards.

The Raiders took their bye in Week 8, and then reevaluated the offense. Mind you, they didn’t fix it, not even close. But they’ve gotten Jeanty working as a receiver. Over the last five weeks, he’s first in running-back targets (34) and second in running-back catches (28), just one behind Christian McCaffrey.

Jeanty’s post-bye ranking is merely RB15 because the Las Vegas running game has completely collapsed. He’s averaging just 2.7 YPC over this period, and doesn’t have a rushing score (he does have two receiving touchdowns). But given that the Raiders are going to be underdogs almost every week, I feel more comfortable seeing Jeanty’s role boosted by a drumbeat in the passing game. It’s essential that they’ve unlocked this.

Top-5 target earners at each position from Week 13

Wide Receiver

Player

Targets

Receptions

Target Share

Ja'Marr Chase, Bengals

14

7

31.8%

Terry McLaurin, Commanders

14

7

31.1%

George Pickens, Cowboys

13

6

35.1%

Adonai Mitchell, Jets

12

8

38.7%

A.J. Brown, Eagles

12

10

40%

Running back

Player

Targets

Receptions

Target Share

Ashton Jeanty, Raiders

8

6

36.4%

Chase Brown, Bengals

7

7

15.9%

Bijan Robinson, Falcons

7

5

22.6%

Michael Carter, Cardinals

6

5

16.2%

Tyjae Spears, Titans

6

6

17.1%

Tight end

Player

Targets

Receptions

Target Share

Zach Ertz, Commanders

13

10

28.9%

Trey McBride, Cardinals

9

8

24.3%

Juwan Johnson, Saints

9

5

26.5%

Evan Engram, Broncos

9

6

20.9%

Dalton Schultz, Texans

8

7

25%