Why latest CFP rankings prove OU football is guaranteed a spot | Mussatto

On Tuesday night, the College Football Playoff selection committee confirmed what became apparent Saturday in Norman: The Sooners are in.

In holding firm at No. 8 in the CFP rankings, there is no scenario heading into conference championship weekend in which the Sooners will be left out of the 12-team playoff field.

The only question now is whether the Sooners will wind up at No. 8 or No. 9 — No. 10 at worst — come Selection Sunday. And that’s a huge deal, of course, as the No. 8 spot would mean hosting a first-round game as opposed to going on the road as a No. 9 or No. 10 seed.

Let’s run through the scenarios.

More: Where OU football ranks in latest CFP rankings, see full College Football Playoff list

OU could finish no higher than sixth

Regardless of what happens in the Big Ten title game, No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana will remain ahead of OU.

No. 5 Oregon, No. 6 Ole Miss and No. 7 Texas A&M are all watching from home this weekend like OU. There’s no reason to rearrange the order of those teams come Sunday.

Which brings us to No. 3 Georgia and No. 4 Texas Tech. I suppose there’s a chance either or both of the Bulldogs and Red Raiders could slip behind the Sooners with a loss in their respective conference championship games, but it seems highly unlikely. There’s also a chance of BYU leaping Texas Tech if the Cougars win the Big 12.

If Georgia and Texas Tech both win, go ahead and lock in OU at No. 8. Notre Dame would then probably pass a three-loss Alabama for the No. 9 slot.

That means OU hosting Notre Dame in the first round with the winner facing No. 1 Ohio State/Indiana in the quarterfinals. This is the scenario I would bet on.

What if Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC Championship Game?

Then the Sooners better pack their bags.

No. 9 Alabama is only one spot behind OU. The Sooners beat the Crimson Tide, but if Alabama beats Georgia (again) in the SEC Championship Game, Alabama will almost certainly leapfrog the Sooners.

So unless Georgia or Texas Tech — assuming a loss to BYU in the Big 12 title game — tanks in the rankings (I can’t imagine they will), a ‘Bama win likely ensures a road game for the Sooners in Round 1.

Against who? My guess is at Texas A&M in the No. 8/No. 9 game. This is a way for the committee to avoid an OU-Alabama rematch. Bump Alabama to No. 7 and drop Texas A&M to No. 8. The Sooners and Aggies haven’t played. What a circus that would be in College Station.

What if BYU beats Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship Game?

Would the No. 11 Cougars pass the No. 8 Sooners?

Maybe.

So even if Georgia takes care of business, OU could still fall to No. 9? Certainly possible.

If you’re an OU fan, cheer for Georgia and Texas Tech.

Is there any chance OU gets snubbed?

Zero percent.

Even if both Alabama and BYU jump OU, and Georgia and Texas Tech remain ahead of OU, the furthest the Sooners could fall is No. 10.

If Virginia beats Duke in the ACC Championship Game, lock in UVA at No. 11. Which leaves the North Texas-Tulane winner in the American at No. 12.

And if Duke upsets Virginia? The ACC likely gets left out completely, assuming a James Madison win over Troy in the Sun Belt Championship.

The team in real danger of getting left out is No. 10 Notre Dame. OU being ranked ahead of Notre Dame on Tuesday guarantees that the Sooners are playoff-bound.

Joe Mussatto is a sports columnist for The Oklahoman. Have a story idea for Joe? Email him at [email protected]. Support Joe's work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today at subscribe.oklahoman.com.

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