We’ve reached the NBA season’s one-quarter mark, where every team will have played 20 games by week’s end. What conclusions can we make about the East and West standings at this point? Who are the top title contenders? And can the Thunder really break the NBA record for most wins in a season? Let’s break it all down.
What's one big takeaway from the East standings?
Ben Rohrbach: The Pistons are legit. The Knicks have a middling defense, though they have been better, and the Cavaliers own a middling record, sitting in seventh place, which opens the door to Detroit. The Pistons are the class of the conference, both by record and eye test, and while we now accept them as possible NBA finalists, they also may be one piece (Lauri Markkanen?) away from more serious title contention against the West winner. The iron is hot. Time to strike.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementKelly Iko: The fifth-place Hawks survived November without Trae Young. Atlanta won 10 of its 15 games with a top-10 defense — and fifth-year forward Jalen Johnson has been flat-out awesome as a playmaker and distributor. Combine that with his elite rebounding, floor spacing (45.9% from 3 on over four attempts) and aggressive three-level scoring and you could make the argument that Johnson should be the focal point in Atlanta moving forward, even when Young returns.
Nekias Duncan: I’ll put on my Propaganda Pants: the Southeast Division is the most fascinating group in the East. The Heat’s new-but-not-really-new-but-certainly-different offense has made headlines and they’re now looking to fully implement Tyler Herro into the fold. The Magic are rounding into form defensively and scoring all of the buckets since Paolo Banchero has been out. The Hawks have ramped up their activity defensively, and their everyone-eats offensive style without Young has kept them afloat. Only a game sets them apart, and they’re all playoff teams right now. It’s been a blast.
Steve Jones: It’s a land of opportunity in the East this year, so the overall competition stands out. As I write this, nine teams have records of .500 or above and seven have won 7 of their last 10 games. Detroit has earned its way to the top, but the Knicks are knocking on the door. If you look at the standings, every single one of these teams believes they can beat each other. Makes for some fun basketball every night.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementDan Devine: The East feels like it’s going to be a game of rock-paper-scissors. How the teams up top navigate their respective top-line injury absences and reintegrations — Jaden Ivey in Detroit, OG Anunoby in New York, Tyler Herro in Miami, Trae Young in Atlanta, Paolo Banchero in Orlando, et al. — figures to go a long way toward determining seeding, which in turn will determine matchups, which in turn will determine which styles wind up making which kind of fights. Damn near everybody has at least some reason to believe they can win a playoff series, given health and the right opponent. But that also means everybody can get got.
What's one big takeaway from the West standings?
Iko: The Lakers, Nuggets and Rockets are staying within closing distance of the Thunder. All three are in the top 10 in net rating against the league’s elite, all three possess top-five offenses and all three have the depth that necessitates a seven-game slugfest with the reigning champs. I’m not exactly betting against a team that has won 20 of its 21 games, but don’t be so quick to crown Oklahoma City.
Rohrbach: The Clippers stink. The last-place Pelicans, who owe their first-round draft pick to the Hawks, are about as bad as anyone could have anticipated, but the Clips, whose first-rounder belongs to the West-leading Thunder, are almost as bad. There was a time not long ago, at the start of last year’s playoffs, when we figured them for the conference’s second-best team. That now feels quaint. How does their deep-pocketed owner, Steve Ballmer, respond? As a buyer?
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementDevine: Zach Edey: small sample size MVP?
The sophomore center is averaging 13.6 points on 67.2% shooting to go with 11.1 rebounds and 2.3 blocks in just 25.4 minutes per game since returning from offseason surgery on his troublesome left ankle. Memphis has gone 5-2 in the seven games Edey has finished thus far and has walloped opponents by 103 points in his 203 minutes. As loudly bad as the vibes in Memphis were amid a 4-9, Ja Morant saga-inflected start, they’ve quietly and dramatically improved as the Grizz have climbed back into the play-in mix and within hailing distance of .500, thanks in large part to the return of one very, very large man.
Jones: The Thunder have not stopped rolling, but the current battle between the Lakers, Rockets and Nuggets has been fun to watch. It’s not just that all three are stacking up early wins, it’s that they’re getting it done on the road (a combined 8-2 on the road as of this writing). The Western Conference is a gauntlet, and a tough week can send you sliding down the standings, but establishing yourself early can open up a pathway for a run.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementDuncan: [Looks around] Well, I’ll talk about the Thunder! With all due respect to the fun jockeying below them, and the sadness I will personally ignore as it pertains to the Clippers, it’s hard to overstate how ridiculous the Thunder have been. They’re a top-five offense despite an early shooting slump. They’ve flat-out been the best defense of the modern era. They’re on pace for an easy 70-win season. It’s hard to have a bigger takeaway than that.
Power rank your top-5 title contenders.
Devine: 1. Thunder; 2. Rockets; 3. Nuggets; 4. Lakers; 5. Knicks
Oklahoma City, a runaway war rig that’s only now getting whole, remains the rabbit everyone’s chasing. Houston — the only other team besides OKC to rank in the top five in offensive and defensive efficiency — has looked since opening night like the league’s best rabbit hunter. What Nikola Jokić (and Jamal Murray) and Luka Dončić (and Austin Reaves, and now LeBron James) are capable of doing offensively at the controls of top-four seeds merits respect. And amid a mish-mash of imperfect options atop the East, I still think I buy New York — now 5-2 since losing Anunoby, their best defender and a viable All-Star candidate before his injury — more than Detroit, Toronto, Miami or Orlando.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementRohrbach: 1. Thunder; 2. Nuggets; 3. Rockets; 4. Pistons; 5. Knicks
I don’t think anyone could argue against the Thunder (20-1) as clear-cut favorites to repeat as champions. The Nuggets and Rockets, probably in that order, have been the league’s next two best teams. The Pistons, firmly in first place in the East, belong in any conversation of serious title contenders, as do the Knicks, who have as good a chance as anyone to emerge from the weaker conference, as their record is now commensurate with their potential.
Jones: 1. Thunder; 2. Nuggets; 3. Rockets; 4. Lakers; 5. Pistons
OKC has lost one game since winning a championship. The Nuggets have shown a high ceiling on both ends when at full strength. The Rockets, whose defense is their identity, now have offensive punch with the two-man game of Kevin Durant and Alperen Şengün and the growth of Amen Thompson/Reed Sheppard/Jabari Smith Jr. In L.A., Luka Dončić is playing at an unreal level, Austin Reaves has grown and LeBron James has returned to elevate this team on both ends. And the Pistons have showcased a belief in who they are: a physical defense that gets after you and a two-man game between Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren that keeps pressure on you.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementDuncan: 1. Thunder; 2. Nuggets; 3. Rockets; 4. Knicks; 5. Wolves
The real answer here is probably the full-strength Thunder, then four different variations of the Thunder missing a role player. They’ve been that good. The Jokić-Murray-Gordon trio with more defensive answers is a formula that speaks to me. Houston’s collective size paired with the Şengün-Durant duo has been a force to be reckoned with. The Knicks are finding the right balance between general flow, off-ball movement, and KAT-centric possessions offensively; I also trust that their defense will return to a more passable form once OG Anunoby returns. I lean Wolves here, very slightly ahead of the Pistons and Lakers. Anthony Edwards has gotten better, Julius Randle is having one heck of a year. The defense, while shakier than we’re accustomed to, has worked its way back to top-10 levels. The Edwards-Randle-McDaniels-Gobert quartet is blowing teams out of the building, and this is a group that’s fresh off back-to-back conference finals appearances.
Iko: 1. Thunder; 2. (fully healthy) Nuggets; 3. Lakers; 4. Rockets; 5. Knicks
Denver’s defense was allowing a stingy 109.4 points per 100 possessions with both Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun on the floor. The reshuffling of the Lakers’ hierarchy — moving Austin Reaves ahead of LeBron — was necessary and gives them an edge no other team has (James as the third option). The Durant/Şengün two-man game has given Houston a deeper X’s and O’s look. Once Anunuoby returns, New York’s eight-man playoff rotation looks exquisite — and I’m taking the All-NBA-esque defender shooting 40% from 3, with that depth, over Detroit’s fantastic story.
Name a contender that concerns you.
Duncan: Well, I thought the [redacted non-Lakers team in Los Angeles] would be a contender, but that seems firmly out. I’ll roll with the Cavs, who are firmly good but haven’t hit the high notes on either end of the floor that I’ve expected them to. Injuries have derailed the chemistry-building process; Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley are seeing multiple bodies virtually every time they try to attack, which has put a damper on some of the Beautiful Game flow we saw last year. There’s still plenty of time for them to round into elite form, but I’d like to see that soon.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementRohrbach: Cavaliers. Darius Garland cannot stay healthy. Mobley has not taken the leap necessary to vault Cleveland into another stratosphere. Mitchell has to do too much. The problems that have plagued them in the playoffs are starting to impact their success in the regular season, and we have to wonder whether the awkward fits between Garland and Mitchell in the backcourt and Mobley and Jarrett Allen in the frontcourt are their Achilles heels.
Jones: Nuggets. Yes, I have them at No. 2, but they need to navigate this stretch without Aaron Gordon and keep their defense at a high level. The concern is less with the whole and more if a losing streak could bump them down the standings. The Spurs have not gone away without Wemby and the Wolves always make a run.
Devine: Cavaliers. They entered the season with the best championship odds of any team in the East. They’re now 4-9 against teams over .500, and their offense has generally been a disaster whenever Mitchell’s been off the floor. Meanwhile, their core four has played a grand total of 57 minutes together due to injuries. Viewed through one lens, that’s cause for optimism: Get the main guys healthy, and maybe Cleveland starts looking more like last year’s No. 1 seed. The longer the Cavs go without clicking into gear, though, the further away last year looks … and the further away they seem from being the contender they were purported to be.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementIko: 76ers. I was alive when they were propped up by some to be the most dangerous team in the East in a year where the Celtics, Bucks and Pacers were decimated by injuries or lack of depth. Philadelphia today is 10-9, sitting in ninth place and struggling against good teams. Paul George’s reincorporation has been rough. You could debate some of Nick Nurse’s rotations — Jared McCain is averaging just 17 minutes per night a season — but the vibes just don’t look great, Joel Embiid looks different and something is off in the city of brotherly love.
Fill in the blank: The Thunder will win _____ games.
Jones: 69. The Thunder have been outstanding on both ends, and Jalen Williams’ return only makes them tougher, but they are going to keep getting everyone’s best shot.
Rohrbach: 70. At the quarter mark, the Thunder are operating at a 78-win pace, largely without Williams, who only recently returned from wrist surgery. Another injury, especially one to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, could send them “spiraling” toward 60-something wins, as could the relentlessness of another 82-game campaign in the wake of a championship run, but at worst they have a shot to be the third team ever to eclipse 70 wins.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementIko: 72. I can’t really see this team losing more than nine more times the rest of the season, barring any major injuries. SGA looks better than last season, Williams is back and they’re brilliantly coached on both sides of the ball. After winning a title and starting this year at this blistering rate, why not go for 70+?
Duncan: 71. I’m already on record with that prediction so I don’t think I can change it in good faith. Just know that I am very, very prepared to be wrong. It feels closer to 74 or 75 at this rate.
Devine: 75. Unlikely? Of course. But if these Thunder are historically good — and considering they’re the fourth team ever to win 20 of their first 21 games, that they currently boast the best defense since the ABA-NBA merger, and that they’re on pace for the largest average margin of victory ever — then why not have a little fun and project a little bit of history?
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