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Lane Kiffin leaves Ole Miss: How do Vegas oddsmakers think it impacts the Rebels' power rating?

2025-12-01 16:20
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We asked oddsmakers what Lane Kiffin's departure to LSU means for Ole Miss' power rating and CFP hopes.

Lane Kiffin leaves Ole Miss: How do Vegas oddsmakers think it impacts the Rebels' power rating?Ole Miss went from 20-1 to 30-1 to win the College Football Playoff at BetMGMStory byVideo Player CoverBen FawkesSenior sports betting analystMon, December 1, 2025 at 4:20 PM UTC·3 min read

In a move that had been rumored for weeks, Ole Miss head coach officially left the team on Sunday to become the new head coach at LSU. Kiffin coached Ole Miss to a 38-19 win in the Egg Bowl over Mississippi State on Friday, before leaving on Sunday. Kiffin reportedly wanted to coach the team in the College Football Playoff, but was denied by Ole Miss athletic director Keith Carter.

"While I am looking forward to a new start with a unique opportunity at LSU, I will forever cherish the incredible six years I spent at Ole Miss and will be rooting hard for the team to complete their mission and bring a championship to Oxford," Kiffin wrote in statement.

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While fans gave Kiffin quite the a send-off on his plane to LSU, filled with anger and middle fingers, for the sports betting world the question is pretty simple: How does Kiffin's departure affect Ole Miss, both in the futures market and from a power rating perspective?

Defensive coordinator Pete Golding will be team's new coach, but whether or not other coaches leave to follow Kiffin to Baton Rouge — along with players — remains to be seen. Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. was seen getting onto the plane with Kiffin.

The Rebels had 20-1 odds to win the CFP at BetMGM after the Egg Bowl win, and fell to 30-1 odds after the announcement. Ole Miss currently has the ninth-best title odds at the sportsbook. The move was similar, but even more drastic at some Vegas books, with one oddsmaker telling Yahoo Sports he moved the Rebels from 15-1 to 40-1.

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In terms of Ole Miss' power rating, every oddsmaker Yahoo Sports reached out to over the weekend said they would lower it — it was just a matter of how much. And every one also mentioned the big factor was if other players and coordinators were going to follow Kiffin.

[Check out all of Yahoo's sports betting content here in our new betting hub]

"Dropping them three points and waiting to see how many players leave," Ed Salmons, vice president of risk at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, said. "It can only get worse."

Other oddsmakers thought the drop may be slightly less, but it was also hard to quantify the emotional impact that Kiffin's departure could have on the team.

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"To announce that before the CFP would be wild," Joey Feazel, head college football oddsmaker at Caesars Sportsbook, told Yahoo Sports last week. "If that did happen, it would be a minimum 2.5-point move for their power rating, with the demoralization of the team. And if players leave, it would be a bigger impact. Kiffin would be a villain overnight."

While it seems a lock that Ole Miss will still make the CFP, it remains to be seen how much the committee will consider "other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team's performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance" — and potentially move the Rebels down a spot or two.

And more importantly, which players and coaches will be available for that first-round matchup. It's certainly a unique situation in the college football — and betting — world, and one everyone will be monitoring this month.

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