Nick BrombergSenior writerMon, December 1, 2025 at 3:24 PM UTC·6 min readWell, the ACC’s chaos scenario got a lot more real on Saturday.
As Cal thwarted SMU’s late comeback and Duke took down Wake Forest, the 7-5 Blue Devils made the ACC title game against Virginia. Duke is just a three-point underdog to the Cavaliers and +115 to win the game outright. A Blue Devils win wouldn’t be all that surprising to oddsmakers.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementWould that also set off a chain reaction that gets James Madison in the playoff? Maybe.
As a reminder, the top five conference champions in the CFP rankings make the playoff. The Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions are guaranteed to be in that group. The American probably is too.
The fifth spot could be up for grabs if Duke wins. James Madison would move to 12-1 with a win over Troy in the Sun Belt title game. The Dukes’ only loss this season came in Week 2 when they lost 28-14 to Louisville — a Louisville team that also beat No. 12 Miami.
The committee couldn’t leave a 12-1 team out of the playoff in favor of an 8-5 team, right? Right? Yes, the ACC is a power conference and has more prestige than the Sun Belt. But it’s been a down year for the league and the conference’s best team — the Hurricanes — didn’t make the conference title game largely due to that Louisville loss.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementWe’re not predicting that the ACC will be on the brink of missing the playoff this week. But it’s a scenario that we wrongfully dismissed a week ago. We’ll take ownership of that. Here’s our latest playoff projection as nine conference title games loom.
The ACC needs Daniel Kaelin and the Virginia Cavaliers to win Saturday to ensure a College Football Playoff berth. (AP Photo/Robert Simmons) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)1. Ohio State (12-0, projected Big Ten champion)
The Buckeyes were a class above Michigan on Saturday as they beat the Wolverines for the first time in six years. Having WRs Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate back on the field was massive — as you’d expect — but the emergence of freshman running back Bo Jackson really makes the Ohio State offense dangerous. We can’t wait for the Big Ten title game on Saturday.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement2. Indiana (12-0, at-large)
The Hoosiers didn’t mess around against Purdue as they capped an undefeated regular season with another win over their in-state rivals. QB Fernando Mendoza is the slight Heisman favorite over Julian Sayin and whoever plays the best on Saturday night is likely to be the Heisman winner. It’s not fair to boil a whole season down to one game for the biggest individual award in the sport, but the race seems like a genuine toss-up at the moment.
3. Georgia (11-1, projected SEC champion)
If Georgia beats Alabama, this is an easy decision. The Bulldogs may even be the No. 2 seed ahead of the Big Ten title game loser. We have a feeling the committee wouldn’t drop the Big Ten loser any further than third unless the game was an absolute blowout.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe Bulldogs are slight favorites over Alabama entering Saturday’s SEC title game despite the Crimson Tide’s win earlier this season. Georgia’s defense just smothered Georgia Tech on Friday as the Yellow Jackets ended the season on a two-game losing streak.
4. Texas Tech (11-1, projected Big 12 champion)
Welcome to a first-round bye, Texas Tech. The Red Raiders still needed to win at West Virginia to clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game and they made sure that game was over quickly. DE David Bailey was held out of the second half as a precaution and is “banged up,” but coach Joey McGuire said he’d be surprised if his star defensive lineman wasn’t able to play in the title game. Tech overwhelmed BYU in Lubbock earlier in the season and with the title game in Dallas, it’s going to be a de facto home game for the Red Raiders again.
No. 12 Tulane (10-2, projected American champion) at No. 5 Oregon (11-1, at-large)
Tulane’s actually a slight underdog to North Texas despite hosting the American title game. We’re sticking with the Green Wave here in the battle of coaches leaving for power conference jobs at the end of the season.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementCould Oregon steal a first-round bye if Alabama takes down Georgia? Maybe. Though we wouldn’t be surprised if the Crimson Tide moved all the way up to the top four spots with a win. The Ducks held Washington QB Demond Williams Jr. to just 129 passing yards on 30 attempts in a 26-14 Week 14 win.
No. 11 Virginia (10-2, projected ACC champion) at No. 6 Texas A&M (11-1, at-large)
As we said in the intro, we’re sticking with Virginia as the winner of the ACC. But if the Cavaliers lose to Duke, James Madison should be in. Virginia beat Virginia Tech on Saturday night to win 10 games for the first time since 1989. One more win sets the school record for victories in a single season.
A&M is now relegated to hosting a first-round game after losing to Texas on Friday night. We think the Aggies will stay above Ole Miss in the rankings thanks to Lane Kiffin’s departure from Oxford.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementNo. 10 Alabama (10-2, at-large) at No. 7 Ole Miss (11-1, at-large)
Yes, this projection would have a 10-3 Alabama team getting the final at-large spot in the College Football Playoff. Could Miami sneak into the playoff in place of Alabama if the Crimson Tide get blown out by Georgia? Absolutely. But if it’s a close game, we’re not sure how the committee penalizes Alabama for losing to a top-three team in a 13th game. A win for Alabama has it hosting a first-round game at the very least and renders this argument moot as Georgia will still be safely in the playoff with a loss.
Will Ole Miss drop past No. 7 with Kiffin’s departure? We’re not sure and the committee may not be either. Whatever adjustments the committee does make to Ole Miss’ playoff status should be done this week and not next week, however. It’s unnecessary to keep the status quo for the Rebels and then move them down in the final rankings.
No. 9 Oklahoma (10-2, at-large) at No. 8 Notre Dame (10-2, at-large)
Oklahoma needed two big plays from the offense in the second half to escape Ole Miss on Saturday. The Sooners are a playoff-caliber team and their resume backs that up. They’re just not good enough to be a title contender. And that could ultimately lead to a flip between Oklahoma and Notre Dame.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe Irish beat Stanford 49-20 and look playoff-worthy, no matter what Miami fans say about that Week 1 win. It counts, but moving Miami ahead of Notre Dame now would make little sense. If the head-to-head victory wasn’t the deciding factor when the teams had the same record three weeks ago, it shouldn’t be the deciding factor now. And if Notre Dame is going to swap spots with Oklahoma, that swap should happen Tuesday night too since both teams’ regular seasons are over.
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