14 things to watch as Colts try to hold off Texans in AFC South race

INDIANAPOLIS — The Colts find themselves facing the first real adversity of a surprising season.

Indianapolis has lost two of its last three games, falling back to the pack in an AFC South that features two challengers, Jacksonville and Houston, gaining ground.

The Colts have a chance to take matters into their own hands this Sunday. Indianapolis takes on the Texans for the first time this season in a 1 p.m. Sunday kickoff at Lucas Oil Stadium (WTTV-4), a chance to both stem Houston’s momentum and right the ship after a disheartening loss in Kansas City.

Indianapolis (8-3) will pit an excellent offense coming off its worst performance of the season against Houston (6-5), a team that has ridden the NFL’s best defense back into the playoff race.

Can Daniel Jones handle the Texans' pressure?

1. Colts quarterback Daniel Jones has struggled under pressure for three weeks, and few teams consistently put as much pressure on the quarterback as the Texans. Houston is tied with Indianapolis for the sixth-most sacks in the NFL — both have 33 — but the Texans have gotten there by relying on the sublime edge-rushing tandem of Danielle Hunter (11 sacks) and Will Anderson (10.5), putting this game squarely on the back of Indianapolis tackles Bernhard Raimann and Braden Smith.

2. Jones has struggled with the blitz the last three weeks, but Houston does not blitz often. The Texans have sent five or more rushers on 23.7% of snaps this season, a number that ranks 22nd in the NFL, largely because Houston’s edge rushers are so good. Expect the Texans to dial up some pressures on third down, though, this week. Once a team starts to struggle with something, the rest of the league usually follows suit. Weak-side linebacker Henry To’oto’o, in particular, has 2.5 sacks this season.

3. Houston sacked Bills quarterback Josh Allen eight times last week, in part, because Buffalo’s wide receivers couldn’t get any separation from an excellent Texans secondary. Derek Stingley, Houston’s No. 1 cornerback, is allowing a quarterback rating of just 53.7 on throws where he’s the nearest defender in coverage, limiting opponents to 44.9% completions. On the other side, Kamari Lassiter has been almost as good, holding quarterbacks to an 81.0 rating.

Can Alec Pierce get deep against the Texans?

4. Kansas City held Colts deep threat Alec Pierce in check last week, limiting him to one catch for 26 yards while staying over the top, and Houston has the safeties to make it difficult for Pierce to get deep again. Texans free safety Jaylen Reed has rarely been the nearest defender in coverage this season because Houston is good at putting up a shell.

5. Rookie tight end Tyler Warren has been a critical piece of the passing game the last two weeks, leading the Colts in catches in both games, but it will be tough against a Texans team that has Jalen Pitre at nickel and Calen Bullock at strong safety. Houston ranks sixth in the NFL in catches and yards allowed to tight ends this season.

6. Put simply, this is going to be another difficult week for Jones. Houston ranks first in the NFL in yards per dropback (5.4), second on third down (34.0%), third in passing yards (172.1), fourth in sacks per pass attempt (9.5%) and second in interception rate (3.5%). Bullock (4), Stingley (3) and Lassiter (3) all have more than three picks already.

7. Maybe that means this is a game to lean on Jonathan Taylor. Taylor struggled against the Chiefs, in large part because the Colts offensive line did a bad job of getting blockers on Kansas City’s linebackers, but Houston’s defense has allowed 4.1 yards per carry, ranking 13th in the NFL. That number isn’t bad on the surface, and the Texans are fifth in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (92.2), but Indianapolis has to find an advantage somewhere against a defense this good. Expect Houston to load the box to stop Taylor, intent on putting the ball in Jones’ hands as much as possible.

8. The Indianapolis special teams are going to be hurt by the loss of Ashton Dulin, but there may be chances to flip field position in the return game. Houston is 21st in the NFL against opposing punt returners and 23rd against kick returners, and even without Dulin, the Colts kick returners rank first in the NFL, averaging 29 yards per return. With Anthony Gould back on punts, Indianapolis was dangerous in the punt return game against Kansas City, and Gould is averaging a solid 11.7 yards per return this season.

Texans QB C.J. Stroud expected to return vs Colts

9. Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has missed the last three games due to a concussion suffered against Denver, and backup quarterback Davis Mills has won all three. Stroud opened the week in the protocol, but if he’s back, it’s a boost to the Texans, regardless of win-loss record. Stroud has completed 66.5% of his passes to 58.7% for Mills, averaged 7.0 yards per attempt to the backup’s 5.9 and taken sacks at roughly the same rate, although he has thrown five interceptions to one for Mills. At any rate, it’s a little odd that Houston head coach DeMeco Ryans had to say earlier this week that Stroud would be the starter when he returns from the protocol.

10. Houston’s offense has struggled all season. The Texans rank 19th in yards per game (323.4), 21st in scoring (22.1 points) and 23rd in yards per play (5.1). Overall, the Indianapolis yardage numbers aren’t impressive, but on a per-play basis, the Colts are somewhere between 10th and 14th in yards, yards per carry, yards per dropback and the red zone. The one place the Indianapolis defense must be better is third down; the Colts rank 28th in the NFL, allowing conversions on 42.9% of chances.

11. Texans wide receiver Nico Collins has always been a Colts killer. Collins leads Houston with 52 catches, 697 yards and four touchdowns this season, but he’s never faced a Colts secondary quite like this one. Indianapolis added cornerback Sauce Gardner in a trade at the deadline, and Gardner is an excellent matchup for Collins, long and rangy. Fellow starting cornerback Charvarius Ward had a few rough moments late against Kansas City, likely because he was left on the field far too long in his first game back in five weeks, but he still allowed only two completions in six attempts when he was the nearest defender in coverage, giving up 50 yards in his return.

12. Expect Houston to focus on the middle of the field, the same way Kansas City attacked the Colts last week. Indianapolis linebackers Germaine Pratt (115.2 rating) and Zaire Franklin (107.3) have struggled when they’ve been isolated in coverage, and Houston will likely try to get tight end Dalton Schultz (52 catches, 497 yards) and slot receiver Christian Kirk (21 catches, 198 yards) in matchups against the linebackers with Indianapolis playing a lot more man-to-man coverage.

13. The Indianapolis pass rush used a “muddle rush” against Patrick Mahomes last week, trying to keep the Chiefs quarterback from escaping the pocket instead of pinning its ears back to get to the quarterback. No matter who’s under center for Houston, the Colts should be free to attack this week, even though Stroud has good mobility. Indianapolis defensive end Laiatu Latu now has six sacks and three interceptions in his second season, but with DeForest Buckner sidelined with a neck injury, the Colts need Latu to take over Sunday’s game, especially on third down.

14. Houston’s running game has been pedestrian this season, ranking 21st in the NFL in yards per carry (4.2) and 23rd in yards per game (107.6) behind a tandem of Nick Chubb (435 yards, 4.1 per carry) and Woody Marks (422 yards, 3.7 per carry). An Indianapolis run defense led by nose tackle Grover Stewart should be able to win that matchup, but the Colts can’t face the same volume of plays they did in Kansas City. Indianapolis held the Chiefs to an ugly 3.5 yards per carry, but Kansas City had 91 plays and ran it a whopping 41 times, allowing the Chiefs to get 148 rushing yards.

Joel A. Erickson and Nathan Brown cover the Colts all season. Get more coverage on IndyStarTV and with the Colts Insider newsletter.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Colts vs Texans what to watch as Colts try to hold off Texans in AFC South