Tailgate: Ohio State-Michigan news, odds, analytics, predictions

Before every Ohio State football game, Matt Tamanini will get you ready with all of the information that you need for that day’s game on the “Land-Grant Tailgate” podcast.

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No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes (-10.4) vs. Michigan | over/under 43.5

Game Date/Time: Saturday, Nov. 29 at 12 noon. ETLocation: Columbus, OhioTV: FoxRadio: 97.1 FM/1460 AM

Like last season, this year’s Ohio State Buckeyes are demonstrably better than their rivals heading into Rivalry Week. In fairness, I think both teams are actually better than their 2024 versions, and the Corn and Blue especially so.

But the biggest difference that will impact the outcome of this game is not one found in the Xs and Os, nor in the on-field execution; instead, it is what is between the ears of Ohio State head coach Ryan Day, and how that has trickled down to his team.

For four years, Day’s pride or ego or something else completely unrelated to the actual game of football has been a glaring and painful impediment to his teams reaching their potential, especially (and sometimes exclusively) in the regular season finale. However, following a player-led meeting after last year’s devastating loss to That Team Up North, Day has seemingly turned into a new version of himself.

He hasn’t lost his game-planning prowess, nor his motivational ability, but what has changed is his belief in his team and himself. No longer are we seeing him self-sabotage highly skilled teams by trying to prove their toughness. Instead, he has leaned into what his players do best and focused on putting them in the best positions to succeed.

Since that meeting just about one year ago, the Buckeyes are outscoring opponents by an average score of 37.5 to 10.6 in the past 15 games, and I see no reason why that will change today.

Ohio State’s defense is one of the most remarkable units in recent college football memory. They are giving up just 7.6 points per game, and only roughly half of their points allowed have come against their first-team defense. The Skunk Bears’ offense is led by a true freshman who has thrown one interception for every 1.8 touchdowns on the season. Their top running back is a sophomore coming off a shoulder injury, and their best wide receiver is another true freshman who has only had more than 80 yards in a game twice in his career.

I will take Matt Patricia’s defense against that lot every time. I expect Arvell Reese to wreak havoc for Bryce Underwood, applying pressure at times and spying at others. Caleb Downs will be all over the field, and all levels of the defense will be blitzing to take him off of whatever rhythm he might be able to find.

On the other side of the ball, I am operating under the assumption that both Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate will not only play but will be essentially as healthy as you can hope to be this far into a season. Ryan Day has been playing the long game all season, minimizing the number of snaps that he puts his team through, knowing that his players’ health and availability are the most important things to repeating as national champions.

So, with both future first-rounders back in the mix offensively, Julian Sayin will reestablish himself as a Heisman Trophy frontrunner. The game plan will look very similar to OSU’s postseason run last year; I think they will push the tempo when they have matchup advantages, they will look to get the ball in their playmakers’ hands, and I think we will see some wrinkles that we haven’t seen yet this season.

Despite the cold and potentially inclement weather, the California kid, Julian Sayin will have a day that etches his name in Ohio State lore forever, completing 85.2% of his passes for 335 yards and four touchdowns.

Matt’s Predictions: Ohio State 38, Michigan 9

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