Previewing UVA Football’s primetime showdown vs. Virginia Tech

Well, here we are. Week 14 of the college football season means its rivalry week for the Virginia Cavaliers. Sitting at 9-2 and in full control of their own destiny to get to next week’s ACC title game with a win, the ‘Hoos welcome a struggling Virginia Tech (3-8, 2-5) squad that is days away from seismic turnover with the recent hiring of James Franklin as the program’s next head coach.

UVA enters Saturday coming off a much-needed bye week after stringing together its best game of the season in the 34-17 win over Duke. The win didn’t come without a cost, though, as starting linebacker Kam Robinson left the game with what was announced Tuesday as a torn ACL and is out for the rest of the season. Juniors Landon Danley and Maddox Marcellus will see more time as a result, now slotting in as huge pieces to the run defense.

The Hokies made national headlines the first month of the season with an 0-3 start, including a blowout loss to Old Dominion that led to the firing of Brent Pry, with coordinator Philip Montgomery serving as the interim since then. Despite losing five of the last six games, the Hokies have continued to compete, including their last three against Louisville, FSU, and Miami, where the Cardinals and Seminoles each needed strong second halves to pull away for good.

Saturday night owns stakes not seen in Scott Stadium since six years ago when the ‘Hoos last knocked off the Hokies and advanced in what was a pseudo ACC semifinal game back in 2019. Things are different this time around. A UVA team playing for a spot in the ACC title game versus a Hokie team that won’t see a bowl game and has fallen short of expectations once again. Saturday marks unfamiliar territory no doubt, with the ‘Hoos and Hokies set to collide on a cold night in Charlottesville.

A look a three players, three keys to the game, and one prediction for one of UVA’s biggest games in program history:

Time: Saturday, November 29th at 7:00 PM ET

Watch: ESPN

Commentators: Mike Monaco, Kirk Morrison, Dawn Davenport

Three Players

LB Kaleb Spencer

Spencer leads the Hokies in tackles with 60, clearing the next best tackler by 10 total stops. The junior registered six tackles against the Hurricanes and has remained one of Tech’s best options against the run, owning a team-best run defense grade of 83, per Pro Football Focus. Stopping the run has been difficult throughout this season for the Hokies as a unit, and will be tested early on by the likes of J’Mari Taylor and Harrison Waylee.

Whoever’s playing quarterback

For the second year in a row, Tech’s quarterback play has been questionable heading into Thanksgiving. Longtime starter Kyron Drones has taken the majority of the snaps, but hasn’t been able to get things humming through the air; a struggling offensive line deserves some blame for that as well.

The Hokies are last in the league in passing yards per game, relying heavily on Drones’ running ability. He’s averaged just under 17 carries a game the past five contests and has gone for 75 yards or more in three of those five. The ‘Hoos will need to rally to the ball to bring him down at 6-foot-2, 235 pounds and force him into obvious passing spots, an area that hasn’t been his strongest to say the least.

Pop Watson III has served as QB2, completing just 2-of-4 passes on the season, both coming in relief against Miami. Drones left the game with an injury after a third-down hit with four minutes to go, prompting Watson III to make some nice plays, despite limited reps, including a three-yard touchdown run.

Watson III looked like the second-coming of Lamar Jackson against the ‘Hoos last year, totaling 302 yards of offense as a legitimate duel-threat. So, in a nothing-to-lose game, would it really be so crazy if we saw the sophomore get significant reps Saturday night? I think it’s still Drones’ game, but I won’t be completely shocked if that doesn’t turn out to be true.

WR Ayden Greene

The Hokies remain dead last in the ACC in passing yards per game, but when they’ve been able to throw the ball around, it’s been Greene making the biggest impact. At 6-foot-2, 190 pounds, he’s turned in a handful of circus catches throughout what’s been a solid year of 31 catches for 516 yards and three touchdowns. Greene reeled in five catches last week in the loss to Miami and four in an October loss to Georgia Tech. Of all the guys on Tech’s roster, Greene will be at the top of the list of players this program hopes to keep around in its new era.

Greene was listed as questionable on the initial ACC injury report on Thursday as a result of an injury suffered after a late fourth-quarter catch. A second report is scheduled for release on Friday. He could very well be a game-time decision for this game; there’s also a chance the report is some early gamesmanship to try and throw UVA off.

Three Keys

Land the first punch

The Hokies are losers of their last three games, falling behind to start in each. While yes, the rivalry aspect of Saturday will have them as ready to go as ever, there’s still a ‘here we go again’ mentality ready to be injected into this game against an eight-loss squad. The ‘Hoos need to take advantage of that and harness the juice of a Scott Stadium crowd that projects to be in the upper 50,000s.

The longer Tech can hang around and stay a punch or two from flipping the game on its head, the higher the anxiety level climbs. J’Mari Taylor spearheaded a surgical 14-play opening drive against Duke to set a dominant tone two weeks ago; a repeat performance would go a long way Saturday night.

Eliminate Tech’s running game

I thought it to be true even before the news was announced, but with Kam Robinson now out of the lineup, UVA’s defensive line unit steps into the forefront as the most important position group in this game for the ‘Hoos. The Duke game was the unit’s best showing of the year, routinely getting into the backfield and ultimately holding the Blue Devils to 42 rushing yards.

The Hokies live and die by running the ball. They average 188 yards per game, the third-best in the league. Despite going up against the vaunted Miami defensive line a week ago, the efforts of Drones, Marcellous Hawkins, and Jeffrey Overton Jr. helped the Hokies put up 194 ground yards and two touchdowns. If not taken seriously, the Hokies have the ability and the willingness to wear the ‘Hoos down on the ground. But if UVA can find a way to lock things down there, it could seriously swing this game in its favor with how inconsistent the Hokie passing game has been.

Win the all-around special teams battle

No, this has nothing to do with the tired, as untrue as its ever been ‘Beamer Ball’ slogan you’ll likely hear at some point during the broadcast Saturday night. In a rivalry game against a team that’s struggled offensively throughout the year, allowing VT to hang around with big plays to shorten the field in the return game is a nightmare scenario.

While UVA ranks among the nation’s worst when it comes to yards allowed on punts, with a punt return touchdown swinging the Wake Forest game out of UVA’s favor, things looked much better against Duke; the ‘Hoos allowed just 46 total yards on punts and kickoffs combined.

Bottom line, the ‘Hoos need to make Drones and the Hokie offense earn every inch against a defense that’s been flying around confidently as of late. Serving up prime field position or worse, points, simply can’t happen on a cold night where offense may be more at a premium.

At the same time, UVA has the opportunity to open this game up for itself from a return perspective. The Hokies have been dreadful on punt and kick coverage all year, ranking dead last in the country in yards allowed per punt return (24) and ninth-worst in kickoff coverage, giving up 26 yards per return. Cam Ross was game-changing early in the season in both of those areas. Perhaps a few more big plays loom in his first action in this rivalry.

One Prediction

If you’re reading this, I assume you’re plenty aware of the recent history of this game, but it’s almost comedic and downright confusing at this point. The Hokies own 23 of the last 25 in this rivalry, despite both teams reeking of mediocrity in numerous matchups. For whatever reason, the ‘Hoos have failed to get the job done in this rivalry.

But, in the few times where we have mentioned this game in various power rankings and record projections throughout this season, there’s been a common theme that should strongly aid the ‘Hoos — the makeup of the roster.

Transfers like Chandler Morris, Mitchell Melton, Ja’Son Prevard, J’Mari Taylor, and others haven’t played in this rivalry yet; there aren’t the scars from multiple beatings by the Hokies woven into this roster like UVA teams of the past. Mix in veterans like Jahmeer Carter, Antonio Clary, James Jackson, and Noah Josey, who were all around for 55-17 in 2023 and last season’s 20-point loss to help set the tone of how important this game is, and I think that plays a huge part in UVA’s swagger to play loose and get over the hump.

As previously mentioned, whether or not UVA can withstand Tech’s ground game for four quarters is the key of the game. Not having Kam Robinson is going to hurt, there’s no doubt. But UVA’s shortcomings in this game, at least, as of late, stem largely from the majority of its roster being gutted with injuries by the time this matchup rolls around.

The ‘Hoos have the bodies this time around to hold up in the trenches, and behind to contain the volume of runs Tech is going to hit them with. Combine that with the intersection of Tech’s passing struggles and UVA’s secondary playing as well as it has all season, and there’s reason to trust John Rudzinski will have the defense ready to fly around with an extra week of prep.

The ‘Hoos have repeatedly punched through the ceiling of expectations all year long, and despite the weather being forecasted in the 30s Saturday night, I still think Chandler Morris finds a way to sling the ball around on VT’s secondary. Tech allowed Miami to feast over the middle in the passing game; Trell Harris and Cam Ross are plenty equipped to hurt the Hokies there for a second-straight week.

Any logical UVA fan who has watched this rivalry should feel nervous, given the history. Frankly, you’d be a little crazy not to be worried at this point, but UVA has the deeper, more talented team to go around a winning quarterback in Morris, and I think this weekend serves as yet another step forward for this team. Bye-week Tony Elliott strikes again for his regime’s first win over the Hokies, and the ‘Hoos punch their ticket to Charlotte in what ends up being another four-quarter game.

Prediction: UVA 27, VT 20