Fun With Numbers: t.u.

Howdy and welcome back to Fun With Numbers. It’s a big week, the kind of week we dream about in June. The kind that cannot be quantified or calculated or summed up by a few charts. It’s Rivalry Week. Hate Week. The Lone Star Showdown. Trips to Atlanta, playoff rankings, every nauseating narrative you can think of, all on the line once again. Like I said, it’s too big for numbers, but that’s what we do here.

And we will do our job. Because that’s what Coach would want us to do.

What Do We Know?

The Aggies are on the road again for their final matchup of the regular season, facing a Top 20 ranked Longhorn squad who haven’t quite lived up to their preseason expectations. The Aggies are a slight road favorite at about 2.5 points, while the SP+ and FEI both like the Aggies by about 5 points. Let’s take a closer look.

Aggie Offense vs Longhorn Defense

Pete Kwiatkowski’s defense hasn’t been as elite as last year’s squad. They’ve been strong up front against the run, and pretty good at generating havoc all over the field. But the secondary has taken a big step back from last season’s unit, and the Horn defense seems to be fading as a whole as the season has progressed. Maybe due to the fact that they’ve been on the field a lot this season (70th in Total Defensive Plays and 96th in Defensive drives), or maybe it just feels that way because their last 3 matchups have been against Top 15 SP+ Offenses. Either way, it’s a good defense, but statistically speaking they line up similarly with Auburn and Missouri, two teams that the Aggies moved the ball on well enough earlier in the year. It may be a struggle to get the run game going, especially if Moss can’t play, but Reed should have open receivers and if they can get loose against this secondary… fireworks.

Aggie Defense vs Longhorn Offense

On the flip side, it feels like maybe Arch Manning and the Longhorn offense have made big strides in the last several weeks, but perhaps that has more to do with playing defenses like Mississippi State (79th DSP+) and Arkansas (101st DSP+) than anything else, especially considering how a Top 10 Defense like Georgia was still more than capable of shutting them down a couple of weeks ago. Their lack of a run game and Manning’s inconsistency as a passer have made them horribly inefficient at times, but they have one of the most explosive passing offenses in the country due to the speed and athleticism of their wideouts. While the Aggie Defense has had their troubles within the Red Zone, the Burnt Orange have often struggled to capitalize as an offense once they get into scoring position, so that will be an interesting battle to watch.

So What’s the Verdict?

It’s almost a complete reversal from last year, with the Aggies (while maybe not as complete of a team as the Horns were last season) having the majority of the statistical advantages and being a road favorite in the biggest game of the season. Does that make you feel better about it? Erase all worry and doubt you feel deep in the pit of your stomach? No? Of course not. Half of this fanbase has spent all season unable to enjoy it because they’re waiting for the shoe to drop, waiting for the “but”, waiting for the anvil.

But what if it never comes? What if this team is just good? What if they do exactly what they’ve done on the road this season… exactly what they’re predicted to do? What if they play their “brand of winning football” for 4 full quarters? Will you believe then? Will you trust your eyes and finally let the excitement hit you with full force?

I hope you do, I hope you get the chance to.

My Prediction: I think KC and Craver match up really well against a secondary that has been extremely soft in coverage the last several weeks, and I think the Aggie defensive back end can hold up long enough for the pressure to really throw off Manning’s timing. Ags win 31-23, and we’re off to Atlanta.

Final Notes

Thanks for reading along this season. I’m hoping there’s plenty of postseason FWNs in the future, but feel free to check out these sites in the mean time.

• Bcftoys.com for Brian Fremeau’s FEI data and other fun projects from him.

• ESPN.com is the home for all of Bill Connelly’s SP+ info (as well as the FPI rankings). You’ll need to subscribe to ESPN+ for most of his stuff these days.

• CollegeFootballData.com is a great site for data and charts that you can download and play with on your own time, in case Fun With Numbers isn’t filling that statistical void in your life. Most of my data comes from here.

• And finally my blog can be found here, in case you’re not getting enough of my writing.

Questions? Comments? Criticisms? You know where to leave ‘em.