Previewing UVA basketball’s Friday afternoon meeting with Queens

Ryan Odom and the Cavaliers will return to JPJ on Black Friday to play Queens. Following their first loss of the season at the hands of an improved Butler team, Virginia has another chance to get back in the win column against a mid-major, before another mini stretch of more formidable opponents. This contest will stream on ACCNX at 4:00 pm. KenPom projects an 89-72 win for the Wahoos.

What to Know About Queens

In their third year since the transition to Division-1 basketball, the Royals won 20 games in 2024-25, earning a trip to the Purple College Basketball Invitational. Returning two of their top three scorers, Grant Leonard’s squad was picked to win the Atlantic Sun in their first season of NCAA Tournament eligibility.

So far, the Royals have not quite looked the part, however. At 3-4, with 90+ points allowed in matchups with Villanova, UNC Greensboro, and Furman, the Royals rank 340th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency. They are giving up two-pointers at a success rate of 58.6%, which is 326th nationally, and allowing offensive rebounds on 35.2% of misses, which ranks 280th.

Queens does offer some upside on the offensive end, though. 6-foot-2 combo guard Chris Ashby was picked as the conference’s Preseason Player of the Year, due to his ability to hunt his shot with limitless range. Ashby is averaging 14.4 points per game with 52 three-point attempts compared to just 12 shots from within the arc.

Their most efficient offensive player so far has been 6-foot-5 wing Nasir Mann, who is averaging 14.0 points on 50.7% shooting, to go along with 6.3 rebounds and 2.7 assists. Mann is a clear product of Leonard’s analytically-driven approach, someone who puts the ball up almost exclusively from either inside the paint or beyond the three-point line.

The Outlook for Virginia

In their 5-0 start, UVA thrived on grabbing offensive rebounds on their misses and converting on second-chance opportunities. However, once Butler was able to neutralize that advantage with their size, Virginia’s offense was significantly less productive on a night where they shot just 8-for-27 from deep.

As aforementioned, Queens has struggled mightily with clearing the glass, so expect another big night from bigs Thijs De Ridder, and perhaps Ugo Onyenso on put-backs as well as post touches. With that said, given how insistent Odom has been on the three-point shot being the Cavaliers’ offensive identity (and rightfully so), it would be great to see them get going from deep. The ‘Hoos have shot a formidable 34.7% from beyond the arc overall, but just a combined 25.4% in their last two contests.

Johann Grunloh in particular must get going to prove that the outside shot can be a legitimate part of his arsenal. The first-year from Germany is just 1-for-11 on threes so far, but the scouting report has him as an obvious stretch five.

On the defensive end, the ‘Hoos struggled mightily in all facets their last time out against Butler. Of course, Queens does not offer the same degree of physical athletes. Still, Odom’s rotations will be something to monitor closely.

Will someone like Eli Gertrude, who has offered little on the offensive end but may be the team’s best “wing” defender, get more run?

The dynamic between point guards Dallin Hall and Chance Mallory will also continue to be intriguing. Hall has been the steady veteran presence and clutch performer that has been expected, but Mallory has looked like a budding star. With Mallory’s on-ball defense clearly superior between the two, the hope is that he can be given the keys to the offense sooner rather than later. Hall should still have a substantial role, given his ability to bump up a spot at 6-foot-4, 200 pounds and function as a shooter off the catch.

Especially with Devin Tillis working his way back into full form, there are only a limited number of minutes to go around so somebody will have to get the shorter end of the stick. Every game is important in that respect.

Prediction

The Cavaliers have their way in the scoring department and make some strides on the defensive end. Odom’s heavy drop coverage is successful against a Queens team that rarely takes mid-range shots.

Hoos 91, Royals 70