JACKSONVILLE, FL - OCTOBER 27: Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) and Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. (7) celebrate after a touchdown during a NFL football game between the Green Bay Packers and the Jacksonville Jaguars on October 27th, 2024 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, FL. (Photo by Chris Leduc/Icon Sportswire)Daniel KelleyThu, November 27, 2025 at 12:00 PM UTC·6 min readIt’s Thanksgiving week. It throws everyone’s schedule off. You work two, three, maybe four days. Your kids are in school for two and then just around and being loud (I’m writing this while my kids are home — help). Your NFL team might play on Sunday or Monday like normal, but it might play at noon Thursday or 3 Friday or … like, 1:46 on Saturday, who even knows anymore.
Everything about it throws off rhythm and makes unpredictable things happen, both in life and NFL and, by association, in NFL Survivor. So this isn’t the week to take big chances in your Eliminator pool.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementSo now, check out the process for my Week 13 pick below. And if you’re into numbers, don’t miss Aaron Schatz’s legendary content and our StatsHub advanced stats research tool for next-level insights.
NFL Survivor Picks for Week 13
Every week, we have the same process — mostly. We eliminate teams in groups until we narrow it down to our real considerations. Start with all 32, whittle it down. Also, just for the record — this game is “once you use a team, they’re off the board,” so I won’t pick a team I’ve already used. That said, I won’t eliminate such a team until I get to my final decision, because we don’t know if you used the team I used.
Note the “mostly” above. I’m mixing up the categories a bit this week. No byes, lots of island games, we’re going with a new order.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementIsland Games
This one isn’t a hard-and-fast category — if I don’t have another pick I like and feel like a prime-time (or Europe) game is just the overwhelming choice, I might double back. Generally speaking, the spotlight games are just weird. That’s not analysis, but also you know I’m right. I would much rather avoid games on Thursday, Sunday or Monday night, and I’d especially like to avoid overseas games. This is Thanksgiving week, which means three Thursday games, a Friday game and our usual Sunday/Monday night games. That’s a lot to cut at once.
Baltimore Ravens (vs. Cincinnati) Chicago Bears (@ Philadelphia) Cincinnati Bengals (@ Baltimore) Dallas Cowboys (vs. Kansas City) Denver Broncos (@ Washington) Detroit Lions (vs. Green Bay) Green Bay Packers (@ Detroit) Kansas City Chiefs (@ Dallas) New England Patriots (vs. NY Giants) New York Giants (@ New England) Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Chicago) Washington Commanders (vs. Denver)
That’s 12 gone at once. That’s nice. It leaves us with 20.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementOpponent Is Too Good
Maybe these are good teams, maybe not, but it’s too hard to trust them given who they are facing. This is a 10-team list every week (fewer when there are byes); we are eliminating anyone facing a top-10 team in our FTN NFL Power Rankings.
Carolina Panthers (vs. LA Rams) Houston Texans (@ Indianapolis) Minnesota Vikings (vs. Seattle) Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Buffalo)
Only four off the board here, thanks to so many good teams playing on Thanksgiving. 16 left.
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They’re Too Bad
You can face the worst team in all of football, but if you’re the second-worst team, well, I’m still not going to be too excited about selecting you. We’ll return to the power rankings here and cross off any team in the bottom 12.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementAtlanta Falcons (@ NY Jets) Cleveland Browns (vs. San Francisco) Las Vegas Raiders (@ LA Chargers) Miami Dolphins (vs. New Orleans) New Orleans Saints (@ Miami) New York Jets (vs. Atlanta) Tennessee Titans (vs. Jacksonville)
Seven more gone. We have nine left — our nine contenders.
The Contenders
Once we’re down to this small a number of teams, we’re done cutting them in swaths. We look at the pros and cons for each team and then figure it out. I’m also diving into our NFL Betting Model to see what the numbers think of the game.
Arizona Cardinals (@ Tampa Bay)Model Projection: Buccaneers 25.73-23.92, Cardinals 45.5% win rate
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementPros: Jacoby Brissett is still dealing, while the Bucs will either have one-arm Baker Mayfield or Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback.
Cons: Even with Brissett dealing, the Cardinals have lost three straight and eight of nine.
Buffalo Bills (@ Pittsburgh)Model Projection: Bills 24.89-21.18, Bills 60.0% win rate
Pros: Aaron Rodgers is back for Pittsburgh, still with a broken wrist. The Pittsburgh offense is a mess.
Cons: Buffalo has let us done a surprising number of times this season. Road game at Pittsburgh? That’s a little scary.
Indianapolis Colts (vs. Houston)Model Projection: Colts 24.49-20.57, Colts 60.7% win rate
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementPros: The Colts offense still grades out as one of the best in the league, while the Texans offense … doesn’t.
Cons: A lot of the Colts’ lofty offensive rank comes from early in the season. It’s been much rougher lately, and taking that against the Houston defense is scary.
Jacksonville Jaguars (@ Tennessee)Model Projection: Jaguars 20.97-16.61, Jaguars 64.2% win rate
Pros: Team facing the Titans? Check.
Cons: The Jaguars can lay an egg any game. Even against the Titans.
Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Las Vegas)Model Projection: Chargers 25.81-14.34, Chargers 81.3% win rate
Pros: The Raiders are challenging the Titans for worst team in football lately.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementCons: Maxx Crosby has been going to sleep this week with pleasant dreams of this Chargers O-line.
Los Angeles Rams (@ Carolina)Model Projection: Rams 28.40-17.63, Rams 76.7% win rate
Pros: The Rams appear to be the best team in the league. Despite their 6-6 record, the Panthers appear to be much closer to the other end.
Cons: Road game, I guess? Hard to picture LA losing.
San Francisco 49ers (@ Cleveland)Model Projection: 49ers 23.51-18.34, 49ers 65.0% win rate
Pros: The 49ers offense is healthy now.
Cons: Did you see Brock Purdy Monday? Myles Garrett & Co. could feast on the way he was playing.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementSeattle Seahawks (vs. Minnesota)Model Projection: Seahawks 28.41-13.95, Seahawks 85.5% win rate
Pros: One of the best defenses in football against either J.J. McCarthy or Max Brosmer.
Cons: There’s almost nothing, but there is this: If any team knows how get under Sam Darnold’s skin and exploit his weaknesses, it’s the one he played for last year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Arizona)Model Projection: Buccaneers 25.73-23.92, Buccaneers 54.5% win rate
Pros: The Cardinals don’t seem to be able to beat anyone.
Cons: The Buccaneers are so banged up, they also might not be able to beat anyone.
The Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars (@ Tennessee)Do I feel confident putting my fate in the hands of Trevor Lawrence on the road? Absolutely not. But I’ll never have another chance to take the Jaguars, and hey, they are 7-4. They should be able to handle Tennessee no problem.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementHonorable MentionLos Angeles Chargers (vs. Las Vegas) — if you didn’t use them when I did Los Angeles Rams (@ Carolina) — if you didn’t use them when I did Seattle Seahawks (vs. Minnesota) — if you didn’t use them when I did
2025 record: 10-2
Week 1: Broncos (W) Week 2: Rams (W) Week 3: Chiefs (W) Week 4: Packers (L) Week 5: Cardinals (L) Week 6: Steelers (W) Week 7: Bears (W) Week 8: Colts (W) Week 9: Chargers (W) Week 10: Lions (W) Week 11: Ravens (W) Week 12: Seahawks (W) Week 13: Jaguars
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