2026 NBA MVP Odds and Favorites: Jokic Supplants SGA

The new NBA season is still in its infancy, but we've already seen some massive movement in the NBA MVP odds market.

Reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been usurped by three-time winner Nikola Jokic, who is leading the league in assists while averaging 29.6 points per game. The Joker's sensational play has staked the Nuggets to a 13-4 start and second place in the crowded Western Conference.

Let's take a look at the latest NBA MVP odds below.

🏀2026 NBA MVP odds

Player

Nikola Jokic

<<+150>>

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

<<+165>>

Luka Doncic

<<+320>>

Giannis Antetokounmpo

<<+2500>>

Cade Cunningham

<<+6000>>

Tyrese Maxey

<<+6000>>

Victor Wembanyama

<<+12500>>

Stephen Curry

<<+15000>>

🤖 NBA MVP AI prediction

It should come as no surprise that ChatGPT is a big fan of SGA. Here's what the chatbot had to say about the defending NBA MVP winner:

With voters increasingly sensitive to both team success and two-way impact, SGA has the cleanest path to an MVP narrative this season. He's the best player on a top-two team in the West, elite efficiency from all three levels, and offers real defensive bite at the point of attack. His game scales without drama—he can dominate in isolation or flow within movement-heavy actions, and he gets to the line a ton without forcing bad shots. If Oklahoma City’s depth keeps their net ratings gaudy when he sits, while his on/off still pops, he’ll own the “drives winning” storyline that tends to decide close MVP races.

Jokic is the rightful favorite, but he’s also up against soft voter fatigue and a Nuggets organization that has every incentive to pace him for June. Doncic will put up video-game numbers again, yet the bar for heliocentric guards keeps rising, and defensive skepticism plus any midseason usage management could ding his case.

By contrast, SGA’s steadiness, durability, and two-way credibility give him multiple avenues to “win” the discourse even if raw counting stats are a tick lower—especially if the Thunder post the league’s best record.

💰2026 NBA MVP opening odds

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +150

• Nikola Jokic +350

• Luka Doncic +380

• Giannis Antetokounmpo +1200

• Victor Wembanyama +1200

• Anthony Edwards +2500

• Kevin Durant +5000

• Cade Cunningham +6000

• Jalen Brunson +8000

• Donovan Mitchell +10000

• Paolo Banchero +10000

• Trae Young +15000

NBA MVP betting data

The following data is courtesy of BetMGM.

1. Highest ticket percentage:

   Spurs

   Victor Wembanyama 20.3%

2. Highest handle percentage:

   Spurs

   Victor Wembanyama 23.9%

3. Biggest liability:

   Spurs

   Victor Wembanyama

Popular NBA futures odds

• NBA championship odds

• NBA Rookie of the Year odds

• NBA Most Improved Player odds

• NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds

• NBA Coach of the Year odds

• NBA Clutch Player of the Year odds

How is the NBA MVP decided?

The MVP award is one of the most prestigious honors in professional basketball—and one of the most debated. But how is the MVP actually chosen?

🗳️ MVP Voting Process

The MVP is determined by a panel of 100 sportswriters and broadcasters from the U.S. and Canada, as well as a fan vote that counts as one ballot. Each voter selects five players, ranked from first to fifth place. The point system is as follows:

• 1st place vote: 10 points

• 2nd place: 7 points

• 3rd place: 5 points

• 4th place: 3 points

• 5th place: 1 point

The player with the highest total point tally at the end of voting is crowned NBA MVP.

📊 What Do Voters Consider?

While there's no official checklist, MVP voters typically weigh several key factors:

• Individual statistics: Points, assists, rebounds, efficiency, advanced metrics like PER or Win Shares

• Team success: MVPs are rarely chosen from losing teams and Top 3 seeds are the norm

• Narrative and storyline: Voters often reward players overcoming adversity or carrying a franchise

• Consistency and availability: Games played, durability, and clutch performance matter

👀 Voter Biases and Trends

Some unofficial trends also influence MVP outcomes:

• “Voter fatigue”: Players who've already won may need to outperform their own past seasons to win again

• New blood bias: Voters sometimes prefer rising stars over repeat winners

• Position favoritism: Guards and forwards tend to dominate MVP voting, although that trend has been changing in recent years

📜NBA MVP betting history

A quick look at recent NBA MVPs and their opening odds.

Season

Player

Opening Odds

Team

2024-25

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

+400

Oklahoma City Thunder

2023-24

Nikola Jokic

+450

Denver Nuggets

2022-23

Joel Embiid

+600

Philadelphia 76ers

2021-22

Nikola Jokic

+1600

Denver Nuggets

2020-21

Nikola Jokic

+2500

Denver Nuggets

2019-20

Giannis Antetokounmpo

+210

Milwaukee Bucks

2018-19

Giannis Antetokounmpo

+475

Milwaukee Bucks

2017-18

James Harden

+1100

Houston Rockets

2016-17

Russell Westbrook

+200

Oklahoma City Thunder

2015-16

Stephen Curry

+650

Golden State Warriors

2014-15

Stephen Curry

+1600

Golden State Warriors

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here