Eric Froton, Rotoworld Bet StaffWed, November 26, 2025 at 8:03 PM UTC·10 min readThe highly anticipated Lone Star Showdown between the No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies (11-0) and the No. 16 Texas Longhorns (8-3) is set for Friday in Austin. The rivalry always promises intensity and emotion but add in the ramifications of a win or loss by either side and this as big a game between the rivals as we have witnessed in decades.
The undefeated Aggies need a win to secure a spot in the SEC Championship game, and a Top 4 seed in the College Football Playoff. Texas is the home underdog, but they are 8-3 and as noted, own the home-field advantage. A win by the Longhorns will force the committee to pause and reconsider the Longhorns' case for a berth in the Playoff.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementTexas vs. Texas A&M Series
Texas leads the overall series 62-33-3Games in Austin: Texas leads 35-12-1Games in College Station: Texas leads 27-21-2Last Ten Games: Texas leads 7-3Last Year: Texas won 17-7
Game Details and How to watch Texas A&M at Texas
Date: Friday, November 28, 2025
Time: 7:30PM Eastern
Site: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
City: Austin, TX
TV/Streaming: ABC
Game Odds for Texas A&M at Texas
The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
Moneyline: Texas Longhorns (+110), Texas A&M Aggies (-130)
Spread: Texas A&M -2.5 (-110)
Total: 51.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Texas Longhorns
Head Coach: Steve Sarkisian2025 Record: 8-3 (5-2)Offense Ranking: 39Defense Ranking: 17Strength of Schedule: 9
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementTexas sits at 8–3 (5–2 Big 12) with a No. 23 SP+ ranking, reflecting a solid defense (No. 17) that’s carried an inconsistent offense (No. 39). The Longhorns have leaned on efficiency and field position, ranking Top 10 nationally in both, but recurring penalty issues (121st in penalty yards) and a sluggish rushing attack (92nd in success rate, 115th in yards per rush) have limited their offensive ceiling. Defensively, Pete Kwiatkowski’s group thrives on linebacker disruption 2nd in LB havoc rate) while allowing just 4.94 yards per play and a stingy 1.63 points per drive. However, Texas struggles in short-yardage and red-zone situations (66th in RZ TD rate, 99th on fourth-down conversions), often settling for field goals rather than finishing drives. Texas’ slim playoff hopes (3 losses) rest on how they perform against Texas A&M.
The Texas Longhorns Offense
Texas’ offense has been efficient but not explosive enough to keep pace with elite defenses, ranking 39th in SP+ with middling marks across most core metrics. The Longhorns’ 41.1% success rate (87th) and 4.3 yards per carry (115th) highlight a struggling ground game that’s overly reliant on chunk plays rather than sustained drives. Through the air, they’ve been more productive, averaging 7.4 yards per dropback (30th) and a strong 17.4 yards per successful pass (9th), but inconsistency on standard downs and penalties (121st nationally) frequently derail rhythm. HC Steve Sarkisian’s unit still flashes Top 20 explosiveness, yet finishing drives and short-yardage conversions remain glaring weaknesses holding this group below its 2024 efficiency level.
Texas Player to Watch on Offense: QB Arch Manning
Arch Manning has delivered a balanced season as Texas’ full-time starter, throwing for 2,763 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions on a 62.5% completion rate across 11 starts. His passing profile shows steady efficiency with 8.8 adjusted net yards per attempt, a 67.2 QBR, and strong PFF marks (86.6 offense, 83.4 passing) that reflect comfort pushing the ball downfield (13.0 yards per completion). Manning’s legs have also been a weapon. He’s rushed for 312 yards and 7 touchdowns, converting nearly half his carries (49.1%) into successful plays while generating 15.8% explosive runs. Although his 5.8% sack rate and occasional decision errors surface under pressure, Manning’s poised dual-threat efficiency has stabilized the Longhorns’ attack and kept their offense in rhythm throughout 2025.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe Texas Longhorns Defense
Texas’ defense has quietly been one of the most reliable in the Big 12, ranking 17th in SP+ and holding opponents to 4.94 yards per play (29th nationally). The unit’s strength lies in its second-level disruption while maintaining a strong 37.1% rushing success rate allowed and 1.63 points per drive surrendered. Despite limited defensive line penetration (126th in DL Havoc Rate), the Longhorns compensate with sound tackling (86.8% success rate) and disciplined coverage, allowing just 7.2 air yards per target. Pete Kwiatkowski’s defense bends but rarely breaks, thriving on situational stops and linebacker-driven pressure to keep Texas competitive even when the offense sputters.
Texas Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Colin Simmons
Colin Simmons has emerged as Texas’ most dangerous edge threat, leading the defense with 10 sacks, 13 tackles for loss, and 16 total havoc plays across 11 games. His 17.1% pressure rate and 37 total pressures on 216 pass rushes highlight elite burst and closing ability, while forcing three fumbles and creating seven additional sacks for teammates. Simmons consistently wins with speed-to-power conversion and quick recognition, posting a 2.74-second average time to first pressure and disrupting nearly one in every five third downs. His combination of explosion, effort, and production has made him the clear engine of the Longhorns’ pass rush and one of the SEC’s premier defensive playmakers.
Texas A&M Aggies
Head Coach: Mike Elko2025 Record: 11-0Offense Ranking: 2Defense Ranking: 22Strength of Schedule: 23
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementTexas A&M has surged to 11-0 behind one of the nation’s most balanced rosters, ranking 7th in SP+, powered by the #2 offense and #22 defense. OC Collin Klein’s offense has thrived through precision and physicality, ranking 19th in success rate (47.2%) and 18th in yards per play (6.69), while allowing the 5th-lowest pressure rate nationally. Defensively, Jay Bateman’s unit smothers opponents with havoc creation (5th overall Havoc Rate, 19.9%) and the top-ranked third-down defense in the country, yielding just 21.5% conversions. The Aggies’ pass rush has been ferocious, leading the nation in sack rate (10.1%) and combining front-seven dominance with disciplined coverage efficiency. With a +16.6 scoring margin and a playoff-caliber résumé, Mike Elko’s team has firmly reestablished itself as an SEC powerhouse heading into its showdown with Texas.
The Texas A&M Aggies Offense
Texas A&M’s offense has been one of the most balanced and efficient attacks in the nation, ranking 2nd in Offensive SP+ while averaging 6.69 yards per play (18th) and scoring 2.83 points per drive (29th). Collin Klein’s system leans on a diverse ground game that posts a 46.9% rushing success rate with 5.3 yards per carry, complemented by an explosive passing attack ranking 22nd in success rate and 5th in completions of 20+ yards. The Aggies’ offensive line has been elite in protection, allowing pressures on just 1.6% of dropbacks (5th) while maintaining physicality up front with a 6.6% blown run block rate (12th). By combining steady efficiency on standard downs (56.1% success, 6th nationally) with vertical strike capability, A&M’s offense controls tempo and relentlessly stresses defenses both horizontally and downfield.
Texas A&M Player to Watch on Offense: QB Marcel Reed
Marcel Reed has been the dual-threat catalyst for Texas A&M’s breakout season, throwing for 2,752 yards and 25 touchdowns with a 61.8% completion rate and adding 464 rushing yards and six scores on the ground. His command of Collin Klein’s vertical passing system shows in an 8.5 yards-per-dropback mark and a strong 9.8 adjusted net yards per attempt, thriving particularly on intermediate throws where he’s posted elite efficiency (11.0 YPA, 11 TDs). Reed’s poise under pressure—taking sacks on just 2.9% of dropbacks—and balanced decision-making have anchored one of the nation’s top offenses. Equally dangerous as a scrambler, his 6.8 yards per carry and 15.6% rate of 10-plus-yard runs make him a constant threat to flip field position and sustain drives.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe Texas A&M Aggies Defense
Texas A&M’s defense has become one of the SEC’s most complete units under HC Mike Elko and DC Jay Bateman, ranking 22nd in Defensive SP+ while excelling in efficiency metrics across the board. The Aggies boast a 33.0% success rate allowed (6th nationally) and rank 1st in third-down defense (21.5%), thriving in long-yardage situations with an elite 19.7% passing-down success rate. Their front generates relentless pressure - 10.1% sack rate (1st) and 38.7% overall pressure rate (12th) - while the defensive line’s 10.1% havoc rate (3rd) anchors a front-seven that smothers early down runs. Though Texas A&M occasionally bends in the red zone and ranks 102nd in points allowed per scoring opportunity, their disruptive front and stingy pass D (5.0 yards per dropback, 13th nationally) make them one of the most formidable defenses in the country.
Texas A&M Player to Watch on Defense: Cashius Howell
Cashius Howell has been a relentless edge presence for the Aggies, leading the defense with 11.5 sacks and 21 total havoc plays across 10 games. His combination of burst and technique off the edge produced a 17.0% pressure rate on 218 pass-rush snaps, generating 37 total pressures and a team-high nine sacks created. Howell’s closing speed and bend allow him to finish plays efficiently—averaging 2.63 seconds to first pressure—while maintaining discipline as a run defender with a 96.8% tackle rate. His disruptive production has made him the centerpiece of Texas A&M’s front seven and one of the SEC’s best Edge players.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementTexas A&M and Texas team stats, betting trends
Texas A&M has won its last 8 games against teams with worse records
Texas has failed to cover in its last 3 games as an underdog
Texas is 3-7-1 ATS this season
Texas A&M is 5-6 ATS this season
The OVER has cashed 8 times in A&M's 11 games this season (8-3)
Rotoworld Best Bets
Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.
Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Arch Manning OVER 250.5 Passing Yards
Arch Manning started slow but has elevated his play significantly over the last month as he acclimates to the collegiate level. In his last four games he threw for 389 yards against Arkansas, 251 vs. UGA, 328 v. Vandy and 346 v. Miss State. For their part, A&M has a respectable Pass D, but they struggle allowing big plays ranking 114th in yards per successful dropback and 92nd in 20+ yard completions allowed. I expect a competitive, back-and-forth affair that should help push Arch over his 250.5 Passing Yards mark.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement****
Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for Friday’s game between Texas and Texas A&M
Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Texas Longhorns at +2.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the OVER on the Game Total of 51.5.
NBC Sports has you covered with all the latest college football betting news and analysis.
Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementJay Croucher (@croucherJD)Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)Eric Froton (@CFFroton)
AdvertisementAdvertisement
