Matt RussellContributing writerWed, November 26, 2025 at 8:06 PM UTC·12 min readThis is the hardest week of the season. Not to necessarily pick games (that was probably last week), but to anoint games as “big.”
“The Big Game” was last week, and Cal-Stanford didn’t rate as a big game, but tell that to these kids:
Up until this point, we’ve labeled games as “big” when they mean something significant to both teams in terms of both the national picture (ranked-versus-ranked), or the conference standings. This week, where college football rivalries abound, there are too many big games to count.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementHonorable mention goes to this list of teams that feel like they’re “win-and-in” for the College Football Playoff:
Georgia (at Georgia Tech)
Oklahoma (vs. LSU)
Notre Dame (at Stanford)
Oregon (at Washington)
BYU (vs. UCF)
Meanwhile, there are a ton of teams with “win-and-in” stakes relative to their conference races:
SMU (at California)
Virginia (vs. Virginia Tech)
North Texas (vs. Temple)
Tulane (vs. Charlotte)
Southern Miss (vs. Troy)
UNLV (at Nevada)
Boise State (at Utah State)
Plus, Toledo and Central Michigan do battle, in a game that might not matter at all in the MAC, or could be for a spot in Detroit.
Guys, there’s a lot going on in Week 14.
Movers
All the moving and shaking has been completed this season, and all that’s left is whether they can beat their rival or find their way into the postseason. The ACC has been a hotbed for movers this season, as no team has been good enough to be truly shaken up by a loss. Georgia Tech had every opportunity to move into the ACC title game, but instead, Pittsburgh basically ran the Yellow Jackets off their own field. Similarly, SMU did that to Louisville and both teams hold out hopes for an ACC title and the CFP spot that will come with it.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe Mountain West — the mini-version of the ACC — saw UNLV and New Mexico each win (and cover) games as a short favorite to put themselves into position for a surprise conference title appearance.
Winning a game with a short point spread means you faced a game that could either way, and an approximately 50-50 shot that your season takes a wrong turn. So, when BYU went to Cincinnati and escaped three Bearcats’ missed field goals (plus a failed fourth-and-short in the red zone), the Cougars moved into position to get a rematch with Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game.
Shakers
Whether it’s Week 13, or the season as a whole, there has been a dearth of upsets in college football this season. However, with so many of the top teams heading on the road to face their rival, maybe that’s still to come.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementUtah might end up being the proverbial “last team out,” but the Utes avoided even putting the committee to a decision by avoiding a loss as a 17-point favorite at home to Kansas State. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt, college football’s plucky underdogs, avoided a shake-up by crushing Kentucky. Now the Commodores head to Knoxville looking to shake things up in the CFP rankings by knocking off Tennessee, forcing the committee to leave out a 10-2 Vandy team, with arguably the most compelling character in the sport in Diego Pavia (who’s still lingering around +600 for the Heisman).
Betting the big games for Week 14
No. 7 Ole Miss (-7, 63.5) at Mississippi State
The most impressive part of teams in the SEC making it through the gauntlet that’s often required of them is the week-in, week-out grind.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementFor Ole Miss, they’ve deftly maneuvered their schedule, with early SEC games at Kentucky and versus Arkansas, so that they could mix in byes, and non-conference home games against non-Power-Four teams, making it so that their only tough stretch was: at Georgia, at Oklahoma and South Carolina. The Rebels lost the game at Georgia, leaving the win over the Sooners as doing the heavy-lifting for their resume. Just like last year, when Ole Miss beat Georgia, and were headed to the playoff until they went to Florida and lost in The Swamp to blow up the season.
This season, that speed-bump trip (in just the fourth Rebels’ road game), is to Starkville for the Egg Bowl. After a 4-2 start, the Bulldogs (foolishly not scheduling more midseason byes or cupcakes) hit the hard part of their SEC slate, losing at Florida, to Texas, winning at Arkansas, then losing to Georgia and at Missouri. That’s a five-gamer that might have tripped up Ole Miss, if they had signed up for it.
To the betting market’s credit, it hasn’t pushed Ole Miss up into the upper-echelon of college football, while the Bulldogs’ competitiveness has earned them a bump. While not all rivalry games ensure focus from both sides, with a postseason berth on the line, and the chance to spoil everything going on in Oxford, Mississippi State (having finally gotten the reprieve of their own bye week) is going to give Lane Kiffin’s team (for now) all it can handle. The Bulldogs will deploy both Blake Shapen and running-threat Kamario Taylor with an eye on making a bowl game in a season where they weren’t supposed to.
Pick: Mississippi State +7
San Diego State (-1.5, 41.5) at New Mexico
We’re a New Mexico win and a pair of favorites getting it done away from a four-way tie for the Mountain West lead, and getting multiple computer ratings involved to break that tie. If that weren’t enough of a reason to back the Lobos, they could be college football’s biggest underdog story, as they were 150-1 to win the conference before the season.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement[Upgrade to Fantasy Plus and gain your edge in player projections and much more]
New Mexico’s market rating has gone up, but San Diego State (40-1 before the season) has ticked up alongside. After getting blown out on the road at Hawai’i, back home, the Aztecs outlasted Boise State in walk-on quarterback Max Cutworth’s first career start and then won 25-3 over San Jose State despite getting out-gained by the Spartans.
The Lobos have won five straight, and while the Aztecs have the defensive reputation, New Mexico went to Air Force and shut down the Falcons, a couple weeks after showing they could win a shootout at UNLV.
Knowing the Lobos can do both, backing the short home ‘dog, and mass chaos out west, is the way to play a high-leverage matchup on “Black Friday.”
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementPick: New Mexico +1.5
No. 3 Texas A&M (-2, 51.5) at No. 16 Texas
If you’re holding any SEC-related positions on Texas A&M, stand down, you’ve already made a bet on this game, as your 15-to-1 ticket on the Aggies to win the conference is coming down to them winning this week and next.
If you don’t hold that ticket, you’re free to join the fray.
The Aggies don’t win many tiebreakers because the SEC teams they play have all seemed to fall off from what was anticipated from them, but when they beat Auburn and Florida, or before a three-game “road trip” through Arkansas, LSU and Missouri, each one of those teams was considered a threat — and all of those wins came after going to Notre Dame.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementTexas has had a strange season at home. After tagging inferior opponents at Darryl K. Royal Memorial Stadium, the Longhorns played once at home over two months, building a big lead over Vanderbilt before hanging on for victory. Then, after their third loss (at Georgia), the market sold Texas before last week’s game with winless-in-the-SEC Arkansas. Like most teams this season, the Longhorns moved the ball up and down the field against the Razorbacks.
[Check out all of Yahoo's sports betting content here in our new betting hub]
If it were so simple to get rejuvenated by playing the Hogs, LSU wouldn’t have had fewer yards against Western Kentucky than against Arkansas a week earlier. In fact, only Texas A&M has managed to keep up its offensive efficiency a week after playing Arkansas, as things got more difficult the next week for Mississippi State, Auburn, Tennessee and Notre Dame.
With the third-worst offensive success rate in the SEC, it would be a mistake to buy back into Texas just because the Longhorns played well against Arkansas, in the same way that they did against San Jose State, UTEP and Sam Houston State.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementMeanwhile, the Aggies have passed every test this season, even one where they collectively shot themselves in enough feet to get down 30-3 to South Carolina two weeks ago. A road game in Austin should be something they can handle, especially given that Texas is aware that even a win won’t be enough to get it into the College Football Playoff.
Pick: Texas A&M money line (-125)
No. 1 Ohio State (-10, 43.5) at No. 15 Michigan
The Game of the Year lookahead line for Saturday’s annual epic showdown was Ohio State -5.5, and, at the time, that might have been a little high, relative to where each side was rated before the season.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementSince then, not much has changed for Michigan within the betting market. At 9-2, they’re an underdog win away from going over 9.5 wins, which the Wolverines were priced as an underdog to do. Road losses at Oklahoma and USC were wholly understandable, and their wins have come with point spread covers about as often as not. So, the move up to -10 is entirely about the increase in respect for Ohio State.
Undefeated, and as the No. 1 team in the country, the Buckeyes have earned that boost, beating Texas 14-7 in the opener, and winning at Washington and Illinois. If the favorites win this weekend, Ohio State’s three resume wins will have come against 8-4 teams.
If Ryan Day — who would gladly take a one-point win in Ann Arbor — finally beats Michigan this Saturday, now that the season has played out, we know that it would be the best win of the season for the Buckeyes. So, asking them to do that by double-digits, against a team trying to sneak into the CFP, is a tall task — and worth fading.
Pick: Michigan +10
No. 12 Miami (FL) (-7, 50.5) at Pittsburgh
The CFP Rankings intrigue is reaching a fever pitch, as the main talking point is the relationship between Miami and Notre Dame, with the Hurricanes ranked behind the Fighting Irish, despite beating them outright in Week 1.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementNotre Dame just manhandled the Panthers at Pitt two weeks ago, so, beyond a projection of Miami -8 that suggests value on Miami at less than a touchdown, we know that if the Hurricanes can add a late score, they will. Why do we know that? With 20 seconds left, and a 10-point lead at Virginia Tech on Saturday, Miami took a fourth-down opportunity, not to just run out the clock, but to go deep for a touchdown that gave the Canes a 17-point win.
The Hurricanes have stubbed their toe twice, putting themselves in the position they’re in, but from a metrics standpoint, thy are by far the best team in the ACC. They should be able to beat Pitt, and if they had left themselves in position to just win, we might be less apt to give the points, but the situation is asking them to not just cover, but leave no doubt.
Pick: Miami (FL) -7
Western Kentucky (-2.5, 55.5) at Jacksonville State
It’s a rematch of last year’s Conference USA title game, with the winner getting back in (and maybe both).
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementWestern Kentucky had higher expectations than Jacksonville State coming into this season, because the Gamecocks lost head coach Rich Rodriguez, as he went back to West Virginia. However, it’s been the Hilltoppers that have received a downgrade in the betting market, despite clearing their season win total of 7.5, which is a signal of how poor their strength of schedule is.
Jacksonville State lost at FIU last week, out-gaining the Panthers, who are playing their best ball of the season, but have an earlier win over WKU too.
The Gamecocks, with the nation’s leading-rusher Cam Cook, crushed the Hilltoppers 52-12 in the conference title game last year, running for 386 yards as 4.5-point favorites. At home again, in a game I have projected as a pick’em, we’ll back the Gamecocks to find their way back into action on championship weekend.
Pick: Jacksonville State +2.5
No. 10 Alabama (-6, 46.5) at Auburn
The Iron Bowl and the Egg Bowl look to be on a parallel track, with the near-annually favored side going on the road, which for Alabama-Auburn seems to mean everything. While regularly getting crushed in Tuscaloosa over the Nick Saban era (and again last season), Auburn hasn’t lost by more than three points to Alabama at Jordan-Hare Stadium since 2015, when Derrick Henry ran for 271 rushing yards.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementIn their tune-up last week, the Tigers deployed freshman Deuce Knight against Mercer and he ran for a 75-yard touchdown on his first play from scrimmage. While the opposition wasn’t up to snuff, a 62-17 win and Knight’s 401 total yards with six total touchdowns did come against a good FCS team. The vibes at Auburn are pretty high, with a chance to spoil the Crimson Tide’s season.
On the spreadsheet, the Tigers’ success-rate metrics aren’t that far behind Bama’s, but Auburn’s six losses — to Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Georgia, Missouri, Kentucky and Vanderbilt, all by virtually one score (Georgia punched in a late score to win by 10 in a somewhat notorious game) — are making this look like more of a mismatch than it is.
Pick: Auburn +6
You can find more on college football’s biggest games and best bets each week from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.
AdvertisementAdvertisement
