NFL Week 13 Early Picks Against The Spread: Best ATS Bets...

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By Tyler Everett

Sports Betting Editor

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Thanksgiving is almost upon us, and this year's slate is as strong as any in recent memory, starting with Packers-Lions in a pivotal NFC North battle at 1 p.m. (all times ET).

This year's Turkey Day tripleheader also features two AFC matchups with substantial implications. First, the Chiefs visit the Cowboys at 4:30 p.m. In the nightcap, Joe Burrow returns to action as the Bengals seek a road upset over the Ravens.

And those are just three of the 16 games to look forward to this weekend -- that's right, no one has a bye this weekend.

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Early NFL ATS Picks YTD Record: 94-83-2

Week 1: 7-9
Week 2: 9-7
Week 3: 9-7
Week 4: 6-10
Week 5: 8-6
Week 6: 10-5
Week 7: 11-4
Week 8: 3-11 🤡🤡🤡
Week 9: 9-5
Week 10: 8-6
Week 11: 6-8-1
Week 12: 8-5-1

All odds below via DraftKings; all kickoff times ET

Packers at Lions (-2.5) -- Thurs., 1 p.m. (FOX)

Pick: Lions -2.5

The Lions (7-4) lost to the Packers (7-3-1) convincingly in Week 1 at Lambeau, but I expect a close game in Thursday's pivotal rematch between the longtime rivals. I'd take Green Bay +3 without much hesitation, but this spread has me torn. The Lions have gone just 3-3 since a 4-1 start, but they could be healthier in the secondary for this game than they've been in months.

As of Wednesday, it's still unclear whether CB Terrion Arnold and safety Kerby Joseph -- who are both listed as questionable -- will be active. But assuming either or both suit up, I'm going to lean toward the Lions covering here, but barely.

Chiefs (-3.5) at Cowboys -- Thurs., 4:30 p.m. (CBS/Paramount+)

Pick: Cowboys +3.5

Is it just me, or does Dallas (5-5-1) suddenly have at least a remote chance to make the playoffs in the NFC? Oddsmakers have their doubts, to say the least (at DK, the Cowboys are currently +700 to make the playoffs), but Dak Prescott and the offense have been tough to stop all year, and the defense has been solid the last two weeks.

The Chiefs' (6-5) postseason aspirations are on the ropes based on a glance at the AFC standings, yet they remain heavy favorites to not only make the playoffs, but reach the Super Bowl in the wide-open AFC. Kansas City has been in a number of close games this year, and I expect this to be another one. I like the Chiefs to find a way to improve to 7-5, but I don't think they're going to score quite enough to cover.

Bengals at Ravens (-7) -- Thurs., 8:20 p.m. (NBC/Peacock)

Pick: Bengals +7

The biggest storyline in the final matchup on Thanksgiving Day is Joe Burrow's return for the Bengals (3-8). Last year, Burrow memorably torched Baltimore's secondary in two games that were decided by a total of four points. The Ravens (6-5) won both those track meets despite huge nights by Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

This year, even amid a five-game winning streak, Baltimore has not been the offensive force we've gotten used to seeing over the past few seasons. Still, it has done enough to win each of its last three games by at least 7 points. For me, Burrow's return makes it hard to resist the Bengals at +7, even though the Cincinnati offense will certainly miss Higgins, who is likely to miss this game due to a concussion.

Bears at Eagles (-6.5) -- Fri., 3 p.m. (Prime Video)

Pick: Bears +6.5

The Bears (8-3) are 8-1 over the last nine games after an 0-2 start, but oddsmakers continue to doubt Caleb Williams and Co. They closed as just 2.5-point home favorites over Mason Rudolph and the Steelers last Sunday. This week, they opened as 7-point road dogs in Philly on Black Friday, but the line is now Eagles -6.5

Chicago's defense has forced a ton of turnovers (a league-high 24, to be exact), but it has allowed more yards per play (6.1) than all but two teams in the league.

The defensive struggles are a huge reason why the Bears -- who are tied with the Eagles for the second-most wins in the conference -- are currently 35-to-1 at DraftKings to win the NFC. But defensive backs Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon could both return for this game. If so, Chicago has a great chance to not just push Philly (8-3), but pull the upset on the road.

The Eagles have been (mostly) great defensively in recent weeks, but I don't trust the Eagles' inconsistent (dysfunctional?) offense to score enough to cover this spread.

49ers (-4.5) at Browns -- Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)

Pick: Browns +4.5

The 49ers (8-4) are a tough out with Brock Purdy back in the lineup, but the Browns' D will be the best unit he's faced since Week 1, when San Francisco squeaked out a 17-13 win over the Seahawks. I understand why the Niners are laying 4.5 here, but Purdy's seven interceptions in just four starts this year make him a question mark, especially against Myles Garrett and the Browns.

I'm not yet sold on the Shedeur Sanders-led offense for the Browns (3-8), but the rookie is unlikely to face much pressure against the shorthanded Niners' front seven. As long as Sanders can avoid turnovers (yes, that's a big if ahead of just his third career game), I like the Browns to cover at +4.5 in an ugly, low-scoring battle.

Jaguars (-6.5) at Titans -- Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)

Pick: Titans +6.5

The Jags (7-4) have won three of their last four to give themselves a great chance to reach the playoffs, but I'm not convinced they're going to win many games comfortably down the stretch. Five of Jacksonville's seven wins this year were decided by 7 points or less, and the Titans (1-10) have to be encouraged by rookie QB Cam Ward's performance against Seattle last Sunday.

The Seahawks have been a nightmare for just about every opposing quarterback they've faced, but Ward finished 28-of-42 for 256 yards and a touchdown, with 0 interceptions and just four sacks. Ward has quietly been solid over the last several weeks, albeit in losing efforts.

It might take another backdoor rally for the Titans -- who quietly kept their last two games against quality competition close -- to cover this weekend, but I like Tennessee at home at +6.5.

Rams (-10.5) at Panthers -- Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)

Pick: Rams -10.5

One underdog I'm not expecting much from this weekend is Carolina (6-6). The Panthers played well defensively in Monday night's 20-9 loss to the 49ers, but barring a letdown by the Rams, I don't see Bryce Young and Co. keeping this game close. Carolina has been inconsistent offensively, to say the least, and they haven't faced many defenses -- if any -- like L.A.'s this year.

The Rams (9-2) are the consensus Super Bowl favorites at both DraftKings (+400) and FanDuel (+440) right now, and they're going to be laying a ton of points just about every week down the stretch.

It's dangerous to say the words, "regardless of the spread," but I expect the Rams to cover more weeks than not going forward. And I'm not even sure that's a hot take when it comes to the team with by far the best point differential in the league at +127. It's also worth noting that six of L.A.'s nine wins this season came by at least 14 points, including blowouts of playoff contenders Baltimore (Week 6), Jacksonville (Week 7), San Francisco (Week 10) and Tampa Bay (Week 12).

Texans at Colts (-4.5) -- Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)

Pick: Texans +4.5

The Colts (8-3) have cooled off offensively over the last three weeks, and it's officially time to wonder whether Daniel Jones can get it done against defenses that dare him to beat them. Indy scored six second-half points against Kansas City last Sunday, and if not for an overtime win over Atlanta on a historic day by Jonathan Taylor, this team would be on a three-game losing streak right now.

The Texans (6-5) have won six of their last eight games, including three in a row with Davis Mills under center. Even if CJ Stroud remains sidelined this Sunday, I like them to cover at +4.5, at minimum -- and another upset win by one of the best defensive teams in football really shouldn't surprise anyone.

Saints at Dolphins (-5.5) -- Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)

Pick: Dolphins -5.5

The Dolphins (4-7) have won three of their last four games after a disastrous start, and they're coming off a Week 12 bye. The Saints played well on the road in Carolina for their second win of the season two weeks ago, but that looks more and more like an outlier performance in hindsight.

The Saints (2-9) have lost four of their last five games, with all four losses coming by at least 12 points. The New Orleans offense has scored more than 14 points just once in that stretch, and that makes it easy to see the Dolphins winning this one by a touchdown, even if the New Orleans D can keep the Miami offense in check.

Falcons (-3) at Jets -- Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)

Pick: Falcons -3

Atlanta (4-7) is good enough defensively to handle the Jets (2-9), who did not get much of a spark from Tyrod Taylor in last week's 23-10 loss to the Ravens. The Falcons' pass rush has been one of the league's best, and it's coming off a 5-sack day vs. Saints rookie Tyler Shough in Week 12.

I don't feel great about backing Kirk Cousins and the Falcons, who could once again be without top receiver Drake London, but I like them to narrowly cover.

Cardinals at Buccaneers (-2.5) -- Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)

Pick: Buccaneers -2.5

Tampa Bay (6-5) is reeling following an ugly loss to the Rams, as QB Baker Mayfield became the latest key Buc to suffer an injury. We might not know whether it will be Mayfield or Teddy Bridgewater under center until Sunday, which makes this a tough one to handicap right now.

The Cardinals (3-8) are much better than their record, and I expect them to once again find themselves in a tight game down the stretch. But I have a feeling that even if Mayfield fails to suit up, the Bucs will find a way to win by at least a field goal in a game they can't afford to lose.

It helps the case for the Bucs getting back on the right track that they'll likely have four of five starters on the O-line healthy, and wide receivers Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin Jr. are both healthy.

Vikings at Seahawks (-11.5) -- Sun., 4:05 p.m. (FOX)

Pick: Seahawks -11.5

Seattle (8-3)'s outstanding defense has dominated just about every offense it has faced. I expect that to continue at home on Sunday, whether it's JJ McCarthy or undrafted rookie Max Brosmer at QB for the struggling Vikings (4-7).

The Seahawks jumped out to a big early lead on Tennessee last Sunday but failed to cover in a 30-24 win. At home this Sunday, I like Seattle to keep its foot on the gas and win by two touchdowns against a Vikings squad that has scored at least 20 points just once in the last five weeks.

Bills (-3.5) at Steelers -- Sun., 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

Pick: Bills -3.5

Buffalo (7-4) cannot afford another loss after its disappointing stumble on the road in Houston last Thursday night. The Bills are flawed enough that I have my doubts about whether they'll cover.

Ultimately, however, I'm confident that Allen and James Cook will be able to run the ball effectively. On the other side of the ball, the Steelers (6-5) don't strike me as a team that's going to be able to exploit Buffalo's struggling run D (Pittsburgh is averaging just 4.0 yards per carry, and it's only exceeded 100 yards rushing three times in the last eight weeks).

Raiders at Chargers (-10) -- Sun., 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

Pick: Chargers -10

L.A.'s (7-4) struggling O-line is making it increasingly difficult to trust the Chargers against quality opponents, but I expect a solid day from Justin Herbert and Co. against the reeling Raiders (2-9). QB Geno Smith's rough season just keeps getting worse, as he's coming off a 10-sack day in a lopsided loss to Cleveland.

The Chargers are tough to trust right now, but this weekend, I wouldn't be surprised to see another final score similar to the 20-9 result we saw when these teams met back in Week 2 in Las Vegas.

Broncos (-6) at Commanders -- Sun., 8:20 p.m. (NBC/Peacock)

Pick: Broncos -6

Jayden Daniels is expected to remain on the sidelines for Washington (3-8), which has lost six games in a row, including four by at least 20 points. The Commanders should show some fight coming off their Week 12 bye, but I can't picture Washington moving the ball on a Broncos D that is among the best in the league by several measures.

Whether Denver (9-2) plays well offensively or not, I could see it winning this game going away, especially if star corner Patrick Surtain II (questionable with a pectoral injury) is back in action.

Giants at Patriots (-7.5) -- Mon., 8:15 p.m. (ESPN)

Pick: Giants +7.5

Drake Maye and the Pats (10-2) just keep winning, and I'd be shocked to see them lose to the Giants on Monday Night Football. Rookie left tackle Will Campbell's injury is a major concern, though, as it makes one of this team's few weaknesses -- pass protection -- an even bigger concern.

Maye (37 sacks) has been taken down more than all but two QBs in the league, and his sack rate of 9.44 is the seventh-highest in the NFL. Without arguably his best O-lineman, the Pats could have some trouble against a Giants D that boasts several talented pass rushers.

I might be overthinking this one, but at the moment, I'm leaning toward New York -- which is just 2-10 but has lost its last three games by 7 points or fewer -- to cover, especially if rookie QB Jaxson Dart is back in action on Monday.

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