Eric Froton, Rotoworld Bet StaffWed, November 26, 2025 at 7:15 PM UTC·10 min readThe 2025 Iron Bowl featuring No. 10 Alabama (9-2, 6-1) and Auburn (5-6, 1-6) is Saturday night at Auburn. It has been a disappointing season for the Tigers, but they become bowl eligible and Alabama’s SEC title game and subsequent playoff hopes if they can pull the upset. The Tide rebounded from a Week 1 loss to Florida State with eight straight wins prior to a loss at home to Oklahoma earlier this month. Bragging rights, recruiting, bowl berths, and a potential SEC title are all in play this weekend.
The Iron Bowl
Alabama leads the series 45-36-1Auburn is 9-5 at homeAuburn leads 7-4 at TuscaloosaAlabama leads 34-18-1 at BirminghamThe series is tied 2-2 at Montgomery
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementLets dive into this year’s edition of The Iron Bowl and look at each school on both sides of the ball along with a handful of the playmakers involved.
Game Details and How to watch Alabama at Auburn
Date: Saturday, November 29, 2025
Time: 7:30PM Eastern
Site: Jordan-Hare Stadium
City: Auburn, AL
TV/Streaming: ABC
Game Odds for Alabama at Auburn
The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
Moneyline: Alabama Crimson Tide (-230), Auburn Tigers (+190)
Spread: Alabama -6 (-110)
Total: 46.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Alabama Crimson Tide
Head Coach: Kalen DeBoer2025 Record: 9-2Offense Ranking: 19Defense Ranking: 6Strength of Schedule: 3
In Kalen DeBoer’s second season, Alabama has rebounded to a 9–2 record (6–1 SEC) and sits 10th in SP+, powered by a sixth rated defense and an improving offense ranked 19th. The Crimson Tide have been more efficient than explosive, ranking 26th nationally in offensive success rate (47.0%) while limiting opponents to just 36.2% success on the other side of the ball. Alabama’s defense has been particularly stout in scoring prevention, allowing only 1.38 points per drive (11th) and ranking 7th in red-zone touchdown rate allowed (42.9%), reflecting Kane Wommack’s disciplined unit. Ryan Grubb’s offense remains balanced and methodical—3.12 points per drive (13th) and 6.0 yards per play (39th)—though the run game still lags behind. With a projected 30% chance at the SEC title, Alabama continues to be an elite program capable of winning a national title if things break right.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe Alabama Crimson Tide Offense
Alabama’s offense under Ryan Grubb has found a steady rhythm built on efficiency and balance, ranking 19th in SP+ and 13th nationally in points per drive (3.12). The Tide have thrived through the air, posting a 50.1% passing success rate (9th) and 10.2 adjusted net yards per attempt, while protecting Ty Simpson with a strong 2.1% pressure rate allowed. Although the ground game has been less explosive, averaging just 4.3 yards per carry (119th) and ranking 75th in rushing success rate, it complements a precise short-to-intermediate passing attack that converts 48.7% of third downs (13th). With a 47.0% overall success rate (26th) and red-zone efficiency of 74.5% touchdowns (11th), Alabama’s offense consistently sustains drives and capitalizes on scoring opportunities, even if it lacks the breakaway explosiveness of past Crimson Tide juggernauts.
Alabama Player to Watch on Offense: QB Ty Simpson
Ty Simpson has led Alabama’s offense with efficient dual-threat production, completing 66.9% of his passes for 2,934 yards and a 22-to-4 TD/INT ratio across 11 starts. His down-to-down consistency stands out, posting a 48.4% success rate and 9.1 adjusted net yards per attempt, while maintaining composure under pressure with a 5.1% sack rate. Simpson’s mobility adds another layer to his game, rushing for 222 yards and two touchdowns, though his ball security needs work with six fumbles (five lost). Overall, his 79.6 Total QBR underscores steady command of Ryan Grubb’s system, balancing accuracy and opportunistic playmaking within a controlled offensive structure.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe Alabama Crimson Tide Defense
Alabama’s defense has been a catalyst for their success, ranking 6th nationally in SP+ while holding opponents to just 4.78 yards per play (18th) and 1.38 points per drive (11th). The Tide’s front seven has limited opponents to a 35.9% rushing success rate (10th) and generated a robust 18.0% havoc rate (19th), highlighted by elite linebacker play. On passing downs, Alabama allows only 5.0 yards per dropback (9th) and just 10.1% of completions go for 20+ yards (4th), showcasing excellent structure and coverage discipline. While they blitz sparingly (12.1% per dropback, 135th) and play heavy zone coverage, Kane Wommack’s unit consistently forces long fields, ranking 7th in red-zone touchdown rate allowed (42.9%) and among the nation’s most reliable defenses in preventing explosive plays.
Alabama Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Yhonzae Pierre
Yhonzae Pierre emerged as Alabama’s most impactful edge presence, producing 48 tackles, 12.5 tackles for loss, and a team-high 6.0 sacks across 10 games. His ability to consistently disrupt opposing quarterbacks is elite, posting 32-pressures, 18.9% pressure rate with a 26.9% third-down pressure percentage, the highest on the roster. Pierre also displayed excellent run discipline, recording eight run stops and generating 16 total havoc plays, the most among Crimson Tide defenders. His combination of burst, bend, and finishing power make him the cornerstone of Alabama’s pass rush and a breakout defensive playmaker in Kane Wommack’s first season.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementAuburn Tigers
Interim Head Coach: D.J. Durkin2025 Record: 5-6Offense Ranking: 54Defense Ranking: 16Strength of Schedule: 10
Auburn’s 2025 campaign has been a season of competitive inconsistency, reflected in a 5-6 record with a second-order win total of 6.3, suggesting a team that’s played better than its record. The Tigers rank 27th overall in SP+ (54th offense, 16th defense), with a dominant rushing attack that averages 5.8 yards per carry (16th) but a passing game that ranks 120th in yards per dropback, hampering balance and explosiveness. Defensively, interim HC D.J. Durkin’s unit has been formidable against the run—allowing just 3.4 yards per carry (2nd nationally) and ranking 3rd in rushing success rate allowed—but has shown vulnerability through the air, particularly in downfield coverage. Despite narrow losses to Oklahoma, Georgia, and Missouri, Auburn’s expected points margin (+7.9 per game) and elite run defense point to a foundation capable of turning close games into wins with modest offensive improvement. Heading into the Iron Bowl at 5-6, the Tigers remain a Top 30 efficiency team that’s one game away from making a bowl.
The Auburn Tigers Offense
Auburn’s offense has been built around a powerful ground game, ranking 29th nationally in rushing success rate (48.0%) and averaging 5.8 yards per carry (16th). The Tigers’ offensive line has quietly excelled, allowing pressure on just 2.5% of dropbacks (60th) while paving lanes for one of the SEC’s most consistent early-down rushing attacks (52.2% success rate on standard downs, 25th). However, the passing game remains a major limitation — Auburn ranks 120th in yards per dropback (5.4) and 131st in completions of 20+ yards, stifling explosiveness and balance. Despite solid efficiency metrics and a Top 60 EPA/play, the offense’s heavy reliance on short passing and limited perimeter production (29.9% of receptions to outside receivers, 116th) has kept its ceiling capped against the better SEC defenses.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementAuburn Player to Watch on Offense: WR Cam Coleman
Cam Coleman has emerged as Auburn’s top receiving threat, commanding 80 targets and turning them into 52 catches for 682 yards and 5 touchdowns. His blend of size and downfield ability shows in a 13.1 yards per reception average and a healthy 8.5 yards per target, producing first downs on 55.8% of his receptions. Coleman’s route distribution—34% deep and 24% intermediate—illustrates his role as the Tigers’ primary vertical and boundary option, with 81% of his receptions coming out wide. Though his 65% catch rate and 8.3% drop rate leave room for polish, his explosive profile has made him the centerpiece of Auburn’s passing attack.
The Auburn Tigers Defense
Auburn’s defense has been the team’s backbone in 2025, ranking 16th nationally in SP+ thanks to an elite front that’s suffocated opposing rushing attacks. The Tigers rank 2nd in yards per carry allowed (3.4) and 3rd in rushing success rate allowed (31.3%), anchored by a defensive line that generates havoc on 7.6% of plays (16th nationally). While the pass rush ranks a solid 25th in sack rate (7.1%), coverage has been less consistent, allowing 6.7 yards per dropback (93rd) and struggling to limit explosive plays through the air. Overall, D.J. Durkin’s unit thrives on physicality and run discipline but remains susceptible when forced into high-leverage passing situations against top SEC quarterbacks.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementAuburn Player to Watch on Defense: LB Xavier Atkins
Linebacker Xavier Atkins has been Auburn’s most disruptive defensive force, leading the Tigers with 78 tackles and an impressive 15 havoc plays in 11 games. A versatile blitzer, Atkins has tallied 7.5 sacks and 16 total pressures, generating a 23.2% pressure rate that is an exceptional mark for any Power Four linebacker. His knack for penetration shows in 11 tackles for loss and 10 run stops, while also contributing in coverage with an interception and a pass breakup. With his combination of range, aggression, and blitz timing, Atkins has become the centerpiece of Durkin’s front seven and one of the SEC’s breakout defenders in 2025.
Alabama and Auburn team stats, betting trends
Alabama has won 3 straight road games
Alabama has failed to cover in 7 of its last 10 trips as a favorite (2-7-1)
Alabama is 7-3-1 ATS this season
Auburn is 4-6-1 ATS this season
The average game score (52.6) in Alabama's last 20 road games is over the Total (47.5)
Rotoworld Best Bets
Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementEric Froton (@CFFroton): Ashton Daniels UNDER 170.5 Passing Yards
“True freshman Deuce Knight got his first start of his fledgling career last week and proceeded to detonate for 259 passing yards, 162 rush yards and six total touchdowns which is why the decision to start Stanford transfer and redshirt junior Ashton Daniels was so unexpected. Perhaps the Tigers are shielding their young prodigy from going “too-fast-too-soon” and choosing to alleviate the pressure of starting his first Iron Bowl. For their part, Alabama’s pass defense ranks 9th in yards/dropback, 12th EPA/dropback and 4th in completions allowed of 20+ yards. Unless Deuce opts out for transfer purposes then I’d expect to see him at some point, perhaps for a significant portion of the game if Daniels isn’t moving the offense. Daniels was a midcard QB with a 9-to-16 BTT-to-TWP ratio in Palo Alto, informing my Under 170.5 Passing Yards look here.”
****
Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementOnce the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for Saturday’s game between Alabama and Auburn
Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Auburn Tigers at +6.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the OVER on the Game Total of 46.5.
NBC Sports has you covered with all the latest college football betting news and analysis.
Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:
Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)Eric Froton (@CFFroton)
AdvertisementAdvertisement
