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If you're looking to buy or sell a home, 2026 may be your year. The National Association of Realtors has released its housing market predictions for 20206, forecasting a double-digit increase in the number of home sales next year as well as climbing home prices, among other things.
"Next year is really the year that we will see a measurable increase in sales," NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said at a forum at November's NAR NXT, a conference for real estate professionals.
Yun forecasted a 14% nationwide increase in home sales next year, as well as a 5% increase in new-home sales. He also said that the NAR expects home prices to rise by 4%, thanks to job growth and supply shortages.
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Early signs of a rebound
Experts are already seeing early signs of this surge of activity, including an increase in the number of mortgage applications and a decrease in mortgage rates.
"Mortgage applications have been consistently above last year, implying that people's desire to enter the market has been consistently positive," Yun said at the forum. While mortgage applications dipped slightly in the week ended Nov. 14, they're still up year-over-year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association weekly survey.
Mortgage rates, which are a consistent speedbump for buyers, are also trending downward. A 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate was 7% in January, but has since dropped to 6.24%, according to Freddie Mac.
Yun expects that downward movement to continue, averaging around 6% next year.
"As we go into next year, the mortgage rate will be a little bit better," he said. "It's not going to be a big decline, but it will be a modest decline that will improve affordability."
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A widening gap
Unfortunately, NAR experts say the housing market rebound won't look the same for everyone.
"The upper end of the market has been doing much better than the lower end," Yun said, citing strong sales in the $750,000 to $1 million price range and constrained inventory at lower price points.
NAR Deputy Chief Economist Jessica Lautz also said during the forum that a disparity exists between buyers with existing home equity and those trying to break into the market.
繼續閱讀"We have haves and have-nots," she said. "First-time home buyers are really struggling to get in, while those who have housing equity are building credit."
This could mean we may continue to see a small number of young, first-time homebuyers, while older buyers, particularly baby boomers, dominate the market.
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Housing prices
While this movement may cause temporary price dips in individual, local markets, Yun doesn't expect prices to drop overall.
Characterizing these small drops as "short-term imbalances," he said NAR is forecasting a national median 4% home price gain in 2026, up from 3% in 2025.
Still, he advised sellers to remain flexible on price in order to ensure their homes don't stagnate on the market.
"It requires some price reduction in order to move the home," Yun said. "Homes that sit on the market for long ... will need to reduce the price to attract buyers."
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This article The National Association Of Realtors Releases Housing Market Predictions For 2026, 'We Will See A Measurable Increase In Sales' originally appeared on Benzinga.com
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