The Los Angeles Rams are the hottest team in the NFC. It's all thanks to a 37-year-old quarterback who flirted with retirement and alternative medicine this offseason.
Matthew Stafford could follow Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers' lead after embracing unorthodox medical treatment to increase his longevity. While Brady had pliability and a weird diet and Rodgers has, well, a lot, Stafford turned to an expensive treatment in a trailer parked outside the Rams facility. Causation isn't correlation and we'll never really know how his dive into holistic healing actually affected his 2025. We do, however, understand this guy is DEALING.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementIn his last eight games, Stafford has thrown 25 touchdown passes. He's turned the ball over only twice, both on strip sacks (and, despite his age and limited mobility, is only getting sacked 1.25 times per game in that stretch). Los Angeles is 7-1 as a result, with the only loss coming in overtime to a good-not-great San Francisco 49ers -- a game in which Stafford threw three touchdown passes and gained nearly 400 yards through the air.
That's pushed Stafford onto the shortlist of 2025 NFL MVP candidates. Advanced stats, however, aren't as high on him as that absurd touchdown:interception ratio suggests. Instead of a runaway favorite to take home top honors, he's merely lingering in the top 10.
Thus, the numbers can't tell us everything. But it does give a solid idea of who is outperforming expectations and who is falling short.
The data is limited — but it does give us a pretty good idea of who has risen to the occasion this fall. Let’s see which quarterbacks are great and who truly stinks through 11-plus games. These numbers are from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats model but compiled by the extremely useful RBSDM.com, run by The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and Sebastian Carl.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementUsing expected points added (EPA, the value a quarterback adds on any given play compared to the average NFL result) along with completion percentage over expected (CPOE, the percent of his passes that are caught that aren’t expected to be in typical NFL situations) gives us a graph of 34 quarterbacks (minimum 192 plays) that looks like this:
NFL QB Advanced Stats after Week 12Break that into tiers using RBSDM.com's outstanding and helpful plotting software, and it looks like this:
Let's take a look at this week's rankings and figure out where the numbers are right and where they're wrong.
Tier I: The NFL's top three QBs, just as we predicted in 2024
1. Drake Maye, New England Patriots: 0.2 EPA+CPOE composite
2. Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks: 0.199
3. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 0.185
Maye overcame an early pick-six to prove he can win ugly, though throwing only two touchdown passes the last two weeks in showdowns with bottom-five passing defenses is a minor concern. Darnold bounced back from his four-interception Week 11 by spamming passes to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, which is a remarkable hangover cure.
Love keeps throwing back-foot nonsense out of danger and into drive-extending glory, which must be maddening for NFC North defensive coordinators.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementTier II: Guys throwing the absolute hell out of the ball
Nov 23, 2025; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) throws a five-yard touchdown pass to tight end Colby Parkinson (not pictured) against Tampa Bay Buccaneers safety Tykee Smith (23) during the second quarter at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images4. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 0.154 EPA+CPOE composite
5. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 0.15
6. Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts: 0.149
7. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: 0.149
8. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 0.146
We hit Stafford above. Prescott threw four touchdown passes in Week 11, then rallied the Cowboys back from a 21-0 deficit with 354 yards against the Eagles. Allen had six total touchdowns in Week 11, which makes his eight sacks in Week 12 a little less concerning.
Jones, on the other hand, has a 0.035 composite over the last four weeks. That is 24th best among quarterbacks and a big reason why Indianapolis is 1-2 in that stretch.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementTier III: Still very, very dangerous (even Mac Jones)
9. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: 0.13 EPA+CPOE composite
10. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 0.128
11. Mac Jones, San Francisco 49ers: 0.127
12. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: 0.121
Goff has backslid after a hot start. That hasn't mattered as much thanks to the presence of playmakers like Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams the last few weeks. It may not matter in Week 13 against the Packers gashable run defense. But it's a cause for concern in a stacked NFC -- particularly for a team working to climb its way out of third place in the North.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementJones has earned himself a healthy raise next offseason, though caveat emptor when it comes to picking up a quarterback who outperformed expectations under Kyle Shanahan. There's a reason why Jimmy Garoppolo only has seven starts since leaving Santa Clara.
Tier IV: Young guys you can build around (and the NFL's most competent backup)
13. Jaxson Dart, New York Giants: 0.109 EPA+CPOE composite
14. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans: 0.105
15. Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals: 0.093
16. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 0.088
Dart and Stroud have both missed stretches this season due to head injuries. That feels like a very real risk for Herbert, whose play has dipped without either of his All-Pro candidate tackles this fall. His 42.7 percent pressure rate is a career high. He's been pressured on more than half his dropbacks in three games this season (though that includes, curiously, a win over the NFL-best Denver Broncos defense).
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementTier V: The dense layer of untrustables
Nov 23, 2025; Inglewood, California, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) recovers a fumble against the Los Angeles Rams during the second quarter at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images17. Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers: 0.078 EPA+CPOE composite
18. Carson Wentz, Minnesota Vikings: 0.078
19. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals: 0.075
20. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: 0.069
21. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders: 0.067
22. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0.063
23. Spencer Rattler, New Orleans Saints: 0.06
24. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos: 0.06
25. Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons: 0.06
26. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears: 0.051
27. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers: 0.043
Williams continues to languish in the stats despite passing the eye test on a regular basis while growing comfortable in Ben Johnson's offense. Nix keeps showing up when it matters and winning games, which makes it difficult to worry too much about it.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe advanced stats were down on Mayfield despite leading four comeback wins in his first four games of 2025. Now he's slid to meet those low expectations, getting battered by the Rams in Week 12 before leaving the game with a shoulder injury at halftime. He's got a 6:4 TD:INT ratio in his last five games -- games in which the Bucs have a 1-4 record.
Daniels has the most potential here and had a year of his dirt-cheap rookie contract wasted by a combination of injury and misplaced veteran roster additions. The good news is his Commanders will have plenty of money to spend in 2026 to build around him. The Panthers have less cash -- and may be looking for an exit strategy from Young, who remains a lower-tier QB (unless he's playing the Falcons) despite the emergence of Tetairoa McMillan as a game-shifting wideout.
Tier VI: This isn't going as planned
28. Joe Flacco, Cincinnati Bengals: 0.025 EPA+CPOE composite
29. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 0.024
30. Justin Fields, New York Jets: 0.023
31. Geno Smith, Las Vegas Raiders: 0.02
We've got three failed modest-cost veterans who were meant to raise the floor on bad teams. Instead, Flacco, Fields and Smith mostly spun out -- though Flacco found some footing throwing to Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins because he's smart enough to get the ball in their hands as often as possible.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementTier VII: Hey, Cam Ward's getting better!
32. Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans: 0.002 EPA+CPOE composite
33. Dillon Gabriel, Cleveland Browns: -0.018
34. J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings: -0.02
There's good news for McCarthy; Shedeur Sanders' composite clocks in at -0.078. There's also bad news; that was largely influenced by a truly dire debut. Sanders' EPA in Week 12? 0.119, meaning he added a point of extra value every nine snaps vs. the Raiders. McCarthy's EPA in Week 12? -0.635, meaning he took roughly a touchdown's worth of value off the board every nine dropbacks.
This article originally appeared on For The Win: NFL QB rankings Week 13: Matthew Stafford, rumbling toward an MVP?
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