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Brandon Zachary
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Brandon Zachary is a Lead Writer for Screen Rant's New Movie Team. He also writes or has written for Comicbook.com, CBR, That Hashtag Show, Just Watch, and TVBrittanyF. Brandon is an Emerging Screenwriters Semi-Finalist, co-writer of a Screencraft Quarter-Finalist, a seasoned on-screen interviewer, and a MASSIVE nerd. You can reach him at [email protected]
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Hamnet is considered to be a frontrunner for the 98th Academy Awards, but the tearjerker faces some tough competition. Hamnet is an emotional and heartbreaking story, based on the novel of the same name and focused on Agnes and William Shakespeare dealing with the death of their son, Hamnet.
It's a movie about storytelling, with a period setting and gorgeous visuals. It also boasts two of the year's best performances. Ever since it debuted on the festival circuit, Hamnet has been an Oscars frontrunner. However, just because it's a lock for nominations doesn't mean it'll win. With Hamnet finally out in theaters, what are the film's chances for Oscars
Hamnet Is The Frontrunner In Two Acting Categories (And For Good Reason)
Hamnet is considered one of the strongest competitors in the race for the Academy Awards and seems to be a lock to win in at least one of the acting categories. Hamnet has been receiving rave reviews since it debuted during the festival circuit.
In particular, the film has been earning rave reviews focused on its stars. Jessie Buckley delivers one of the most heartbreaking portrayals of grief in any recent film, a wounded nerve of a performance that is raw, emotional, and heartbreaking.
Buckley has gradually been cementing herself as the frontrunner in the category all year long, with plenty of momentum building behind her in recent months. Even as Cynthia Erivo and Renate Reinsve have maintained their place in the race, Buckley keeps earning more raves.
At this point, Buckley isn't just an apparent lock for the nomination but is even the apparent frontrunner to win the award. Outside of a groundswell of support building for the other competitors during the award season, Best Actress seems to be Buckley's award to win.
Paul Mescal is also expected to earn an Oscar nomination for Best Supporting Actor. The decision to move him into this category allows Mescal to escape facing off with the likes of Timothee Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio, who dominate their narratives in a way Mescal doesn't.
That doesn't mean it'll be easy for Mescal in Best Supporting Actor, though. Sean Penn, Stellan Skarsgård, Benicio del Toro, and Jacob Elordi are all also in the race, each strong in their own right. Mescal is terrific in the film, and Hamnet's wide release might earn him more momentum.
However, his chances likely depend on the momentum for other films. If One Battle After Another begins to dominate other award ceremonies, then Penn or del Toro could pull ahead. Similarly, a push for Frankenstein or Sentimental Value could elevate Skarsgård or Elordi in the race.
On paper, Mescal has the most Oscar-friendly performance among the expected nominees. While he still has a fighting chance, it will depend on how the award-voting bodies shift during the remainder of award season and if momentum builds behind other actors.
Chloé Zhao Might Win Her Third Oscar For Hamnet, But It's A Tough Race
Chloé Zhao won two Academy Awards in 2020 for her work on Nomadland, earning them for Best Director and Best Picture. The filmmaker is similarly positioned to reap the prestigious rewards for her work on Hamnet, which she directed and wrote with the book's author, Maggie O'Farrell.
This makes Zhao an expected nominee for both Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay. In both cases, Hamnet is expected to be a strong contender. The film has largely landed well with critics, and the festival circuit embraced the film in a way few others have this year. Nominations seem like a certainty.
However, Hamnet faces some stiff competition in both fields. Ryan Coogler, Joachim Trier, Josh Safdie, Guillermo del Toro, and Jafar Panahi are all also in contention for Best Director, while Bugonia, Frankenstein, Train Dreams, Wake Up Dead Man, and No Other Choice could all also be contenders for Best Adapted Screenplay.
It's a tough field this year in both categories. The real spoiler, though, is One Battle After Another. The blockbuster film by Paul Thomas Anderson is considered the frontrunner in both categories, with the epic scope and personal focus of the movie benefiting both categories.
Notably, Paul Thomas Anderson has never won an Oscar. Despite being nominated several times, he's never walked away with the win. With Zhao having won just five years ago, the Oscars may decide that Anderson is overdue for recognition. It'll be a well-deserved win, but one that adds momentum to his campaign in comparison to Zhao's Oscar chances.
Can Hamnet Win Best Picture?
Jessie Buckley and a crowd looking up in awe in Hamnet©Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection
Hamnet is a shoo-in for a Best Picture nomination at the 98th Academy Awards. The film is a period-piece drama, filled with amazing performances, strong emotions, and clever direction. It checks off several traditional Oscar boxes and would normally be a favorite to win.
It very much still could, too. The film's greatest strength is the pitch-perfect third act that regularly left festival audiences openly crying. If Hamnet connects with a broader audience in much the same way, it could become a sleeper hit that generates enough momentum to take the win.
However, it'll need to overcome some pretty big rivals to actually snag the award. Sentimental Value could split the emotional appeal vote, leaving room open for other films like Sinners, Marty Supreme, and especially One Battle After Another to take the win. They're all great films, too, which could stop Hamnet from becoming the "artistic" pick.
One Battle After Another and Sinners both also have the more familiar award season story to rely on to endear themselves to voters, with big box office returns, cinematic approaches, and directors who've never won Best Director at the helm. Hamnet is one of the year's best films, but it may struggle in some key categories at the Oscars.
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Hamnet
Drama
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10/10
Release Date
November 26, 2025
Runtime
126 minutes
Director
Chloé Zhao
Writers
Chloé Zhao, Maggie O’Farrell
Cast
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Jessie Buckley
Agnes
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Paul Mescal
Will
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The Oscars | Academy Awards
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