Australia’s mining sector strengthens toward 2030

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Australia’s mining industry is set to enter a period of steady, production-led expansion through 2030, supported by a strong resource base, competitive project pipeline, and a stable regulatory framework. Despite price pressures affecting several commodities over the past two years, new supply additions and replacement projects across iron ore, gold, copper, uranium, and select battery minerals are expected to drive medium-term growth. Conversely, output is projected to weaken in commodities approaching mine depletion, including lead, zinc, and manganese.

Iron ore, which remains the cornerstone of Australia’s mining economy, is forecast to grow from 967.2 million tonnes in 2025 to 1.11 million tonnes by 2030, supported by sustaining capital projects and replacement mines in Western Australia (WA). Similarly, gold output is set for a strong rebound after 2025, rising from 10.2 million ounces to around 13.2 million ounces by 2030, as major projects such as the Hemi Gold Project and operational recoveries at established mines come online.

Lithium, despite facing weaker pricing and an oversupply environment, is forecast to grow moderately through the decade. With the ramp-up of Kathleen Valley, Mt Holland, and incremental expansions across WA, lithium production is projected to rise from 114 kilotonnes in 2025 to around 147 kilotonnes by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.2%. Growth will remain sensitive to market conditions, but the project pipeline provides a stable supply outlook.

Similarly, uranium output is expected to strengthen, rising from 5.4 kilotonnes in 2025 to 6.6 kilotonnes by 2030, driven by the restart of the Honeymoon mine and new supply from projects such as Nolans, Beverley developments, and Westmoreland.

Meanwhile, bauxite production is forecast to remain broadly stable, edging up from 101.8 million tonnes in 2025 to roughly 106 million tonnes by 2030, as continued output from Queensland’s Cape York operations and expansions at Bauxite Hills reinforce long-term supply.

Coal production is set to remain relatively flat in the short term, but modest growth is expected toward the end of 2030, as operational improvements and new approvals partially offset the scheduled closure of more than 20 mines. Production is projected to rise slightly from 465.3 million tonnes in 2025 to around 482.8 million tonnes by 2030.

Silver will follow a similar trend of stabilisation after initial declines, with output remaining broadly flat and increasing slightly from 38.6 million ounces in 2025 to an estimated 39.1 million ounces by 2030 as major operations progress towards closure.

In contrast, Australia’s lead and zinc production outlook remains subdued. Lead output is forecast to decline from 466.8 kilotonnes in 2025 to 442.6 kilotonnes by 2030, reflecting mine closures at Rosebery and Cannington. Zinc output is expected to fall from 1.13 million tonnes in 2025 to around 1.0 million tonnes by 2030, influenced by smelting disruptions, depletion at mature mines, and reduced operational capacity across key assets.

Manganese production faces the steepest contraction. After a recovery to 2.8 million tonnes in 2025, output is projected to fall sharply to around 2.7 million tonnes by 2030 due to planned closures at Groote Eylandt and declining ore quality.

"Australia’s mining sector strengthens toward 2030" was originally created and published by Mining Technology, a GlobalData owned brand.

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