Dylan Cease Enters Free Agency as One of the Winter’s Biggest Wild Cards

This offseason’s starting-pitcher market lacks the superstar shine of last year’s group, when front-line arms such as Corbin Burnes and Max Fried reshaped the landscape with massive long-term contracts. Instead, teams searching for rotation help in the 2025-26 cycle are navigating a far more unpredictable field. Few pitchers embody that uncertainty more than Dylan Cease, who enters free agency after two dramatically different seasons in San Diego.

Cease’s first year with the Padres in 2024 was everything the club hoped for when they acquired him. The right-hander was among the most effective pitchers in the National League, finishing fourth in Cy Young voting while delivering a 3.47 ERA across 189 1/3 innings.

His ability to miss bats remained elite, as he punched out 224 hitters just shy of his career high while keeping walks at a manageable rate. That season reaffirmed his status as a legitimate top-of-the-rotation force capable of carrying a contending staff.

The follow-up act in 2025, however, told a very different story. Cease struggled to maintain the same consistency, particularly in command. His ERA climbed nearly a full run to 4.55, and his walk rate ticked upward to 9.8 percent, placing him among the least efficient starters in the league in that regard.

Despite the control issues, Cease’s raw stuff remained electric. He continued to strike out batters at an elite pace, leading all of Major League Baseball with an eye-popping 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings. For clubs evaluating him, that combination of dominant stuff paired with erratic command creates a fascinating challenge.

Even with that variability, Cease is still expected to command a major contract. Some evaluators project offers approaching six years and roughly $170 million, reflecting the scarcity of high-end pitching available this winter. For teams willing to bet on upside, Cease represents one of the few true difference-makers on the market.

One team positioned to make such a move is San Francisco. The Giants have both the financial room and the organizational urgency to pursue a high-impact starter. With Rafael Devers already anchoring their lineup, new manager Tony Vitello steering the clubhouse, and a front office determined to return to postseason relevance, the incentive is clear. Pairing Cease with Logan Webb and Robbie Ray could give San Francisco the type of rotation punch it has lacked in recent seasons.

As the offseason unfolds, Cease stands out as one of the most intriguing cases in free agency, equal parts risk and potentially franchise-altering reward.