Sean McAdamTue, November 25, 2025 at 7:10 PM UTC·4 min readThe Red Sox beefed up their starting rotation Tuesday with the news that they acquired Sonny Gray and cash from the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for Richard Fitts and Brandon Clarke.
Here are five quick thoughts about the trade:
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement1) The payroll just took a big hit.
Gray has just one year remaining on a multi-year deal and the Red Sox have re-worked some of that. Instead of a $35 million and $5 million mutual buyout option for 2027, Gray will be paid $31 million with a $10 million buyout.
The Red Sox are getting $20 million from the Cardinals in the deal, too, to help offset some of Gray’s money. But for CBT (competitive balance tax) purposes, the Sox are quickly closing in on the first threshold. They were at about $210 million before the deal and are now just $11 million short of going over for the second straight season.
That doesn’t leave a lot of room to either re-sign Alex Bregman and/or another bat at first base or DH.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement2) Is Gray a true “front of the rotation” starter?
At the outset of the offseason and again at the GM Meetings earlier this month, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said he was in the market for someone closer to the front of the rotation, someone who could slot in comfortably just behind staff ace Garrett Crochet.
“I don’t think we’re going to spend a ton of time trying to add a No. 4 or No. 5 starter,” said Breslow in Las Vegas. “If we’re going to make a starting pitching addition, I think it should be somebody who can pitch at the front of the rotation, start a playoff game for us.”
But does that description apply to Gray? Over his last 60 starts (covering 2024-25), he pitched to a 4.07 ERA and a 101 ERA+. Granted, his FIP is a more impressive 3.26, but overall, Gray has been decidedly average and profiles closer to a No. 3 starter, rather than a 1A or No. 2.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementHis fastball velocity is trending down, as might be expected for someone who just turned 36, though last year he posted the best walk rate of his career.
3) Gray struggled in his one full season in a big market environment.
After being acquired by the New York Yankees in 2017, his next year with the Yankees was a disaster, with a 4.90 ERA and a 1.496 WHIP in 2018. In 30 starts, he pitched just 130.1 innings, or an average of just over four innings per start. It was the second-worst year of his 13-year big league career.
It was said at the time that Gray didn’t enjoy the atmosphere and attention that comes from playing in New York. That may not bode well for how he’ll do in Boston.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement4) The player cost wasn’t overwhelming.
In Clarke and Fitts, the Red Sox gave up two young pitching prospects.
Fitts profiles as a back-end starter or swing guy, so that cost is somewhat negligible. He represents a depth piece more than a rotation mainstay. But Clarke, a lefty, has more high-end potential.
Baseball America recently ranked him as the Sox’ fifth best prospect. A fifth-round pick in 2024, Clarke struggled mightily at High A Greenville with a 5.08 ERA while averaging almost a walk per inning (25 in 28.1), leaving evaluators with questions.
Clarke has a high ceiling, but only if he can get his control issues in order.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement5) How much of an upgrade is Gray over Lucas Giolito?
Had the Red Sox given a qualifying offer to Giolito, it would have cost them slightly more than $1 million in additional salary, with the QO valued at $22.025 million.
And while Gray has been more durable of late — Giolito missed all of 2023 after elbow surgery — Giolito was the better starter in 2025, albeit one who pitched for a better club.
If the Sox were getting the 2023 version of Sonny Gray (2.79 ERA over 32 starts with the Minnesota Twins), that would be one thing. But they’re not - they’re getting a pitcher who’s two years older and who hasn’t performed at that level in either of the last two seasons.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementAnd, of course, Giolito wouldn’t have had the additional cost of surrendering two starting pitching prospects.
More Red Sox coverage
Red Sox trade: Who’s Brandon Clarke, top prospect Boston sent to Cardinals?
Red Sox rumors: Boston ‘showing interest’ in three-time All-Star catcher (report)
Red Sox trade for Sonny Gray, fortify rotation with big first offseason deal
Some Things I Think I Think: One bat not enough for Red Sox’ offseason shopping list
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