Bitcoin at $90K After Record $3.79B ETF Outflows: Will BTC Hit $150K in 2026?

BTC-USD -0.15%

Quick Read

• Bitcoin (BTC) dropped over 30% from its October high above $126,000 to near $90,000 amid record institutional outflows.

• Bitcoin ETFs lost $3.79B in November with BlackRock’s IBIT shedding $2.47B as institutions reduced exposure without a crisis.

• Fed rate cut odds reached 87% for December which could provide upside support if Bitcoin holds above $90,000.

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Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is trading near $90,000 after one of its sharpest institutional pullbacks ever, and the timing reveals a shift in how long-term investors view the asset. More than $3.79 billion left Bitcoin ETFs in November, marking the heaviest monthly outflow since these products launched. What makes this moment stand out isn't panic or a major collapse—it's the quiet, deliberate move by institutions to reduce exposure even without a crisis in sight.

The pullback came after Bitcoin reached an all-time high above $126,000 in early October, only to drop more than 30% by late November as ETF outflows reached a record high. This raises questions about whether Bitcoin can reclaim six figures anytime soon.

With Fed rate cut odds climbing and analysts split on where prices head next, the market's watching to see if $90,000 holds or if another leg down is coming.

Bitcoin's Three-Month Slide: From $126K to $90K

Bitcoin's price performance in the last three months tells a clear story of momentum slipping away. Its rally started strong in early September, with BTC trading around $108,000 and reaching a peak near $126,000 by early October. That high marked the ceiling. All subsequent bounces were met with strong rejections, and by the end of October, Bitcoin was struggling to hold the $109,000 to $114,000 range.

The real breakdown came in November. BTC dropped from above $109,000 to a mid-month low around $80,000, triggering liquidations and breaking the support levels that had held throughout the year. The rebound toward $90,000 has stabilized the chart slightly, though that hasn't inspired much confidence yet.

Over the three-month window, BTC's trend shows weakening demand, thin liquidity, and growing caution from institutions. The current chart reflects that the market has pulled back sharply while waiting for stronger catalysts to return.

Record $3.79B ETF Outflows Signal Institutional Retreat

November's $3.79 billion in Bitcoin ETF outflows marks a break from past stress cycles. The redemptions weren't from fast-money traders rushing for the exit, but rather pensions, registered investment advisors, and institutional portfolios that usually hold positions for long stretches. When that group trims exposure, it signals a conscious shift in strategy, not panic selling.

What makes this period striking is the lack of a crisis. There was no collapse, no scandal, nor liquidity event. Institutions simply chose to step back, and the withdrawals hit both spot ETFs and futures-linked products.

BlackRock's IBIT alone saw $2.47 billion in outflows, showing that even long-term institutional holders—the type that usually don't move money around—turned cautious. When the steady holders start trimming, it signals something deeper than short-term fear. Portfolio managers now treat Bitcoin like a high-beta macro asset, adjusting positions based on yields and sentiment instead of keeping long-term allocations.

Year-end tax selling also added pressure. Investors sitting on losses started dumping positions in November to lock in write-offs before year-end—especially those who bought into older ETF products near the highs. These factors show a deliberate cooling of conviction rather than emotional selling. That distinction matters because sentiment-driven selloffs can reverse quickly, but strategic de-risking takes longer to unwind.

What Could Push Bitcoin Higher or Lower From Here

Bitcoin sits in a fragile spot. Outflows, weak sentiment, and shifting macro signals are steering the market right now. What happens next depends on whether the pressure deepens or fresh demand finally steps in.

Downside Risks

Heavy ETF outflows remain the biggest threat. If institutions continue trimming positions into early 2026, selling could snowball, pushing Bitcoin toward deeper support zones. A hawkish Federal Reserve would add strain by keeping yields high, increasing the pressure on risk assets. Any liquidity shock—whether from stablecoin issues or exchange stress—could also trigger fresh panic.

Upside Catalysts

A clearer shift toward rate cuts would give Bitcoin fresh support by easing pressure from bonds and restoring confidence across risk assets. The odds of a December Fed rate cut just hit 87%, according to CME FedWatch data, and that's already lifting sentiment. ETF outflows slowing as tax-driven selling fades would help stabilize flows, and January's allocation cycle could bring new institutional entries as advisors rebuild client positions.

If Bitcoin holds above $90,000 and volume picks up, buyers would regain confidence. Analysts are watching key resistance clusters at $93,000 to $96,000 and $100,000 to $108,000—areas where many recent buyers are likely to take profit or reduce exposure. Breaking above these levels is essential for Bitcoin to continue its upward trend and make a clean move toward a new all-time high.

Will Bitcoin Hit $150K in 2026? What It Takes to Get There

Can Bitcoin hit $150,000 in 2026? The answer isn't about whether it's possible—it's about whether the right conditions can set in. Getting there requires Fed rate cuts to follow through, ETF money to return, and Bitcoin to break cleanly above $100,000.

Bullish Prediction

Getting to $150,000 requires three catalysts to work together. First, the Federal Reserve would need to follow through on rate cuts. Odds are high at 87% for a December cut, and if that eases pressure on bonds while weakening the dollar, risk assets like Bitcoin will benefit.

Second, ETF outflows would need to reverse. November's $3.79 billion drain came largely from year-end tax-loss selling, and if institutions rotate back in during January's allocation cycle, that could stabilize sentiment.

Third, Bitcoin would need to clear $100,000 and hold it as support, breaking through resistance clusters at $93,000 to $96,000 along the way. If those three conditions align, momentum could carry Bitcoin toward the $150,000 to $200,000 range by mid-2026.

Base Prediction

A more conservative outlook sees Bitcoin trading between $100,000 and $130,000 through most of 2026. This assumes the Fed cuts rates modestly, ETF flows stabilize without surging, and Bitcoin holds major support around $90,000 but lacks the momentum to push significantly higher.

Regulatory clarity would help—clear stablecoin rules or spot crypto ETF expansions could provide steady institutional interest without triggering a parabolic rally. In this scenario, Bitcoin spends 2026 building a base for a stronger move in 2027, similar to how it consolidated in 2023 before breaking out in 2024.

Bearish Prediction

The downside scenario plays out if institutions don't return after year-end rebalancing. If ETF outflows persist into Q1 2026, selling pressure could push Bitcoin back toward $70,000 to $85,000, testing support levels that held earlier in 2025.

If the Fed keeps rates high longer than expected, that would add strain. Any financial shock—stablecoin depegging, exchange failures, or a broader stock market selloff—could push Bitcoin lower. A drop below $90,000 would likely trigger automated selling programs, and when trading volume is thin, prices can fall harder and faster.

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