Ceasefire Speculation Tests Oil’s Floor

XOM -1.16% COP -1.28% EC -2.08% HON +0.97%

Oil fell 2.5% on Tuesday morning following reports that Ukraine has mostly agreed to a peace deal with the U.S.

European Gas Prices Chill at Lowest Levels Since May 2024

- European gas prices have fallen below the €30 per MWh threshold (the equivalent of $11 per MMbtu) as the triple whammy of Russia-Ukraine peace talks, warmer weather and ample supply lowered the TTF benchmark to its lowest since May 2024.

- Following a brief cold spell that brought this winter season’s first snow, temperatures across key consumption hubs are expected to trend back to 8-9° C, lowering heating demand over the first week of December.

- Moreover, Europe’s gas inventories are currently 78% full, with Germany remaining the laggard of the continent with a 70% stock rate whilst France and Italy boast an 88% and 89% rate, respectively.

- Supply is plentiful across the Atlantic Basin, even if freight rates continue to balloon out of control, with Europe expected to import 12 million tonnes of LNG this month, with US supplies accounting for a whopping 60% thereof.

Market Movers

- Australia's Woodside Energy (ASX:WDS) started to assess the commercial viability of building a 5 mtpa LNG plant in East Timor, to be supplied from its Greater Sunrise fields in the country.

- Nigeria's leading refiner Dangote has contracted engineering giant Honeywell (NASDAQ:HON) to help double its refining capacity to 1.4 million b/d by 2028 with the help of its catalysts and equipment.

- US oil major ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) signed a deal with Syria’s Syrian Petroleum Company to develop the Middle Eastern nation’s gas sector after a decade-long Civil War damaged most of existing infrastructure.

- US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) has indefinitely postponed its Baytown blue hydrogen project, developed alongside the UAE’s XRG, citing weak customer demand as it encountered no readiness for offtake agreements.

Tuesday, November 25, 2025

Media reports that the Trump administration is inching ever closer to a comprehensive peace deal between Russia and Ukraine has exerted additional pressure on crude prices, sending ICE Brent to $62 per barrel immediately after the first ABC News scoop came out. Beyond peace talks, surging refinery margins have so far capped the downside for oil prices, but a plunge below $60 per barrel for all major benchmarks cannot be fully ruled out further down the line.

Saudi Arabia Keeps on Selling Out. Saudi Arabia’s national oil company Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) is reportedly considering selling assets worth of billions of dollars to offset the impact of lower prices, looking to divest stakes in its oil export and storage terminals.

Hedge Funds Short WTI, For the 1st Time Ever. As the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission resumed the publishing of Commitment of Traders data, the first tranche of WTI hedge fund positioning data shows that the US crude futures moved net short for the first time in records dating back to 2007.

Moscow and Beijing Eye Oil Export Boost. Meeting for a bilateral energy business forum in Beijing, Chinese and Russian authorities have confirmed talks to expand the former's crude exports to China via Kazakhstan, in addition to the 1.4 million b/d seaborne and 0.7 million b/d direct pipeline flows.Suriname Opens Itself Up for Appraisal. Suriname is planning to offer 60% of its offshore territory for exploration, launching an ‘open-door offering’ to kickstart its own E&P drive similar to neighbouring Guyana, currently producing only 17,000 b/d from its onshore Tambaredjo field.

UAE Boasts About AI-Driven Reserve Growth. ADNOC, the national oil company of UAE’s Abu Dhabi, said that its oil reserves climbed 7 billion barrels to a total of 120 billion barrels, reinforcing its position as the 6th largest reserve holder globally, citing a boost in AI-powered appraisal.

Bangladesh Drops Another Giant LNG Tender. Bangladesh’ state energy firm Petrobangla has decided to import 7 spot LNG cargoes over the upcoming weeks, financed by proceeds from an 82% hike in natural gas tariffs for fertilizer producers, seeking to restart its domestic urea production.

China Doubles Down on Fake ‘Indonesian’ Oil. Chinese buyers have imported almost 400,000 b/d of (assumedly Iranian) crude oil from Indonesia, according to Beijing’s customs data that run contrary to Indonesia’s own statistics, showing a mere 25,000 tonnes of crude exports to China in all of 2025.

Russia’s LNG Risks the Suez Canal Route. The Novatek-led Arctic LNG 2 project, under US sanctions since November 2023, has sent its first cargo via the Suez Canal to China, eyeing quicker delivery routes as the previously used delivery conduit via the Northern Sea Route froze up by now.

Gold Supply’s Top Gridlock Suddenly Resolved. Canada’s miner Barrick Mining (TSO:ABX) said it had reached an agreement with the government of Mali over the Loulo-Gounkoto mining complex, dropping the arbitration case against the African state as it agreed to sign the 2023 mining code.US Copper Stocks Soar to Record Highs. Continuously favorable arbitrage for copper has led to inventories of the red metal held in warehouses approved by the US Comex exchange exceeding 400,000 short tonnes for the first time in history, with futures still $250/mt above LME prices.

Tehran Mulls Scrapping Costly Subsidies. The Iranian government is planning to raise the price of its heavily subsidized gasoline ‘under limited conditions’, with Tehran seeking to avoid public protests as it lifts the price of fuel from $0.27 to $0.44 per litre for drivers who don’t own government smart cards.

Protests Hinder Colombia’s Gas Supply. Colombia’s Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) has warned of natural gas shortages in the country after protests from the indigenous Carrapinapule community jeopardized the physical integrity of staff at its Guajira field, currently producing some 70 MMCf/day. Louisiana Restores Key Commonwealth LNG Permit. Louisiana’s regulatory body has reissued a coastal use permit for the 9.5 mtpa Commonwealth LNG project after a state court ruling vacated it just a month ago, with environmentalists claiming it had a deficient climate impact assessment.

By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

• Iran Oil Stockpile Surges to Two-Year High on China Demand Slowdown

• Indian Banks Eye Return to Russian Oil Trade

• Shell and Ferrari Forge 10-Year Renewable Power Partnership

Oilprice Intelligence brings you the signals before they become front-page news. This is the same expert analysis read by veteran traders and political advisors. Get it free, twice a week, and you'll always know why the market is moving before everyone else.

You get the geopolitical intelligence, the hidden inventory data, and the market whispers that move billions - and we'll send you $389 in premium energy intelligence, on us, just for subscribing. Join 400,000+ readers today. Get access immediately by clicking here.