Democrats’ Chances of Flipping Republican Seat in Special...

By Andrew Stanton

Weekend Staff Writer

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Voters in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District will head to the ballot box in one week to vote in the race between Democratic state legislator Aftyn Behn and Republican Matt Van Epps in one week with polls showing a closer-than-expected race in the historically conservative district.

The Van Epps campaign expressed confidence in the race in a statement to Newsweek on Tuesday, stating that there will be "strong conservative turnout."

Newsweek also reached out to the Behn campaign for comment via email.

Why It Matters

Behn’s campaign has garnered national attention as Democrats are hopeful for an overperformance in the district by the lawmaker who has represented the 51st district in the state legislature since 2023. The 7th District encompasses parts of Nashville as well as more conservative suburbs and rural areas near the city. President Donald Trump carried the district by more than 20 points last year, but Democrats have closed margins and done well in elections this year.

The outcome of the special election could have key implications for control of the House of Representatives, where Republicans hold a slim 219-213 majority. The resignation of Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Georgia Republican, in January will bring that to 218-213, and it could get more narrow in the coming months following special elections in more Democratic-leaning seats. If Behn pulls off a victory, it would further shrink the GOP’s slim majority.

What to Know

Van Epps, a veteran, has held a polling lead over Behn throughout the campaign. But surveys have pointed to a more competitive race compared to last November, when former Representative Mark Green won by more than 20 points. He resigned from Congress earlier this year to take a private sector job.

An Impact Research poll from October showed Van Epps up by 8 points (52 percent to 44 percent). Democrats, however, are more motivated to turn out on Election Day, the poll found. Eighty-three percent of Democratic candidates said they are “extremely motivated,” compared to 71 percent of Republicans.

The poll surveyed 700 likely special election voters from October 16 to October 19 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

...

A Workbench Strategies poll also showed Van Epps up 8 points (52 percent to 44 percent).

“Victory in a district that backed President Trump by more than 22 points won’t be easy, but Aftyn’s campaign and the chaos caused by Republican control of Congress have put her within striking distance with six weeks to go until Election Day,” the poll memo read.

It surveyed 400 likely voters from October 15 to October 19 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.65 percentage points.

Betting odds give Van Epps an edge. Polymarket gives Van Epps an 89 percent chance of victory and Behn only an 11 percent chance of winning. Kalshi gives Van Epps an 87 percent chance of winning, and Behn a 13 percent chance of winning as of Tuesday.

Behn has faced some criticism over resurfaced remarks made during a February 2020 podcast where she talked about Nashville, saying, "I hate this city," while listing bachelorette parties, pedal taverns and country music as aspects of the city she does not like.

"I hate all the things that makes Nashville apparently an 'It City,' " she said.

Behn has pushed back on claims that she hates Nashville, saying in a November 20 video posted to X. She acknowledged that she "gets mad" at the bachelorette parties and pedal taverns, but that she has "cried no less than 10 times in the Country Music Hall of Fame."

Former Vice President Kamala Harris campaigned on behalf of Behn earlier in November as the party worked to build enthusiasm among the Democratic voters in the district. The race has also drawn notable outside spending.MAGA Inc., a super PAC supporting Trump, spent more than $1 million to support Van Epps, reported the Associated Press. Meanwhile, the House Majority PAC spent $1 million in television and digital ads to support Behn.

What People Are Saying

The Van Epps campaign wrote in a statement to Newsweek: "Tennesseans are fired up to stop radical Aftyn Behn on Tuesday, December 2nd. Aftyn supports higher taxes, defunding and eliminating the police, transgender surgeries for minors, and even believes men can get pregnant. With strong conservative turnout, Matt Van Epps will win next Tuesday and work with President Trump to lower the cost of living for hardworking Tennessee families."

William Lyons, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, previously told Newsweek: “Were this an election held during the regular cycle, it would not be viewed as one where the Republican is the clear favorite–possibly in the 60-40 range. However, this is shaping up to be a much lower turnout election. That could narrow that range if things fell in place for the Democrats through more intensity among their base coupled with a strong ground game.”

Behn wrote Sunday in a post to X: "WE ARE SO CLOSE, HENCE THE RELENTLESS ATTACKS The margins are shrinking, which is why they're getting louder. Channel all of your upset and frustration into talking to voters. This race is winnable, and together, we will flip this seat on December 2nd!"

National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Reilly Richardson told NBC News: “Democrats are so desperate they’ll burn cash in a district redder than a Tennessee sunset just to distract from Aftyn Behn’s radical agenda. While they waste resources chasing a fantasy, Matt Van Epps is laser-focused on fighting for families, securing the border, and unleashing American energy.”

What Happens Next

Early voting began on November 12 and will continue until November 26. The general election is set for Tuesday December 2.t The Cook Political Report classifies the race as “Likely Republican.”

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