One-Loss Thunder Listed with 16% Probability to Set NBA All-Time Wins Record

The Oklahoma City Thunder are growing increasingly likely to break the NBA’s all-time single-season wins record, although sportsbooks still think it’s a long shot.

According to FanDuel, the Thunder have +520 odds of going 74-8 or better during the 2025-26 NBA regular season.

Key Takeaways

• FanDuel thinks there’s about a one-in-six chance the Thunder set the record.

• The 2015-16 Warriors started 29-1 before they lost their second game.

• OKC has the hardest strength of remaining schedule in the league.

The Thunder finished last year with an NBA-best mark of 68-14 en route to winning their first championship as a franchise.

Rather than rest on their laurels, they came out with their hair on fire and are now up to 21-1 on the season.

Their only loss? A 121-119 defeat to the Portland Trail Blazers, during which three starters (Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, and Lu Dort) did not feature.

The only team to begin their season on a better run was the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors, who won 24 games before they suffered their first loss. The Dubs went on to finish the season 73-9, breaking the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls’ previous mark of 72-10.

In order to pass the 2015-16 Warriors, the Thunder cannot lose another game until after they win their 30th game. That’s because Golden State got to 29-1 before they lost for a second time.

That said, the Thunder are easily on pace to achieve the 74 regular-season wins needed to set the record. With just one loss and 26.9% of the season completed, they’re on pace to finish the season at an astonishing 78-4, or a 95.1% win rate, 6.1 points above the historic Warriors.

Inching toward history

Despite the Thunder’s white-hot start, FanDuel’s +520 odds suggest there’s only a 16.1% implied chance that the reigning champions will make history.

There are also +850 odds (10.5% chance) they win 75+ games, +1260 odds (7.4% chance) they win 76+, and +2200 odds they win 77+ (4.4% chance).

There’s still a long way to go, but these odds have already shortened significantly. The Thunder were given just about a 5.3% chance to win at least 74 games in the middle of November.

Unsurprisingly, the Thunder are also the outright leader in NBA Finals odds (+130). That gives them a 43.5% implied chance to repeat as champs, while the second-place Denver Nuggets only have a 12.5% implied chance.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is also first in NBA MVP odds at FanDuel (+155), just ahead of Nikola Jokic (+165).

That isn’t the consensus across all sportsbooks, however. bet365 has the pair tied, DraftKings and Caesars have Jokic ahead, and BetMGM, like FanDuel, has SGA in the lead.

Gilgeous-Alexander is trying to win his second straight MVP trophy after he received 71 of 100 first-place votes last season. Jokic finished second with 29 first-place votes.

A lucky schedule?

According to Tankathon, the Thunder have the most difficult remaining schedule in the NBA. They have four games against the Nuggets and San Antonio Spurs each, three against the Los Angeles Lakers, and two against the Detroit Pistons, Toronto Raptors and Houston Rockets, among others.

On the flip side, they had the easiest strength of schedule up to this point. Only five of their 22 games were against teams with winning records.

The Thunder’s next marquee matchup will come against the Phoenix Suns in the NBA Cup quarterfinal next Wednesday. They’ll also face the Spurs twice over Christmas, along with possible appearances in the NBA Cup semifinal and final.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here