XRP Clings to Crucial $1.90 Floor as TD Sequential Buy Signal Hints at Explosive 18% Rebound

XRP-USD +0.97%

Quick Read

• XRP is testing support at $1.90 after falling 18% over five months from a July high near $3.65 to $2.20 by late November.

• A TD Sequential buy signal has appeared at the $1.90 level where previous declines stopped.

• Four XRP ETFs now hold over $700M in combined assets with consistent institutional inflows through November.

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XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) is testing a make-or-break support level as traders debate whether $1.90 holds or the price drops toward $1.80. After weeks of selling pressure and thin liquidity, the XRP price has found temporary footing at the $1.90 level, which has stopped previous declines from getting worse.

At the same time, the TD Sequential buy signal has flashed, suggesting that the pressure from sellers may be running out of steam. With ETF inflows building steady institutional demand, traders are watching to see if this setup leads to a rebound or if XRP slips deeper toward $1.75-$1.80.

XRP Price Performance Over the Last 5 Months

The XRP price fell 18% over the last five months, dropping from its July all-time high near $3.65 to roughly $2.20 by the end of November. The decline happened gradually. September brought prices down to the high $2.70s, then October pushed them lower to the mid-$2.50s as XRP’s momentum stalled.

November was tougher. XRP fell below $2.00 for the first time in months and briefly dropped to $1.82 as nervous holders sold. Even positive news about ETF launches and regulatory progress couldn't get buyers to step in with confidence.

As November ended, price swings got tighter and trading volume stayed light. Rallies toward $2.25 were met by strong rejections as sellers showed up again. After testing $1.90 multiple times, that level became the boundary between a potential recovery and further downside.

The five-month pattern shows buying interest weakened and rebounds lacked follow-through. The market now needs stronger catalysts before committing to the next rally.

TD Sequential Buy Signal Flashes at $1.90 Support

XRP has reached a price level that traders are paying close attention to. The support at $1.90 is holding, selling pressure looks exhausted, and institutions are still buying through ETFs. Together, these factors are creating the first real technical setup for a potential short-term bounce.

Why the TD Sequential Signal Matters Now

The TD Sequential helps traders spot moments when a trend is running out of steam. It tracks how prices close each day and signals when selling pressure starts to fade. XRP just printed a new buy setup over the past two weeks, and the last two times this signal appeared, XRP rallied 14% and 18%.

What makes this signal more important is that it showed up right at the $1.90 support level, which has stopped declines before. This tells traders that sellers are getting tired right where bigger buyers have stepped in during past drops. Institutional trading desks watch for this kind of setup because it offers a low-risk entry point without much downside left.

But the signal alone doesn't guarantee anything. It needs confirmation from three things: higher trading volume, continued ETF buying, and more activity on Ripple's payment network. If those pieces start falling into place, short-term traders and trading algorithms could jump in and push the price higher. If they don't, any bounce might not last long.

The Importance of the $1.90 Support Zone

The $1.90 level isn't just another number on the chart. It's acted as a floor during past corrections, where larger buyers tend to show up when prices drop. It also lines up with XRP's 20-month exponential moving average—a long-term indicator that's marked important turning points before.

When XRP trades above $1.90, momentum usually picks back up. When it falls below this level, the price tends to drop further. That's why holding $1.90 matters so much right now. If it breaks, the next support levels sit around $1.75 to $1.80, and that would erase the current bullish setup.

If $1.90 holds while volume increases and ETF buying continues, it gives traders confirmation that sellers are running out of steam. That would support the case for a 14% to 18% bounce and help restore confidence after weeks of steady selling.

XRP ETF Flows and Market Positioning

The new spot XRP ETFs have changed how institutions can buy the token. Four providers—Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, and Canary Capital—now hold more than $700 million in combined assets. Late November saw some of the strongest buying days since the ETFs launched, and the inflows have stayed consistent.

What's happening is a slow but steady shift in who's buying XRP. Institutions aren't making huge bets all at once. Instead, they're adding exposure gradually through regular portfolio adjustments, which creates constant demand underneath the market instead of short-lived spikes.

This pattern helps during price drops because ETF buying gets spread across multiple trading sessions, which absorbs some of the selling pressure. It also shows that professional money managers see these price levels as reasonable entry points, even if they're still being cautious about putting in larger amounts. If the inflows keep coming at this pace, they'll build a stronger foundation for XRP to break through resistance levels above.

What Could Undermine the Rally Setup

The bullish setup looks decent, but several things could wreck it quickly. The biggest worry is volume. Trading activity dropped off in late November, which suggests buyers aren't fully committed yet. Any bounce might die out fast if sellers push back hard, because thin liquidity turns even good technical signals into false starts.

Broader market problems pose another risk. If stock markets tumble or fear spreads through crypto markets, XRP's technical setup won't matter much. Ripple's payment network activity matters too. If banks slow down their use of RLUSD or cross-border payments stall, it removes the fundamental reason for XRP to rally beyond just technical bounces.

The biggest danger is losing the $1.90 support. If XRP closes below that level on a daily chart, it erases the bullish case and puts $1.75 to $1.80 back in play. That would tell traders that buyers gave up right when they needed to show strength.

2026 Outlook: Where XRP Could Head Next

XRP starts 2026 at an important moment. Whether the $1.90 support holds, how ETF money keeps flowing, and what happens with Ripple's payment network will shape how the year plays out. The path forward depends on whether buyers finally step up or if the waiting game continues.

Bullish Scenario

In the best case, XRP holds $1.90 and the TD Sequential signal pulls in more buyers. ETF inflows keep growing as financial advisors add XRP to client portfolios, creating steady demand. Ripple's payment network sees more banks and payment companies using it for cross-border transfers, which adds real-world demand beyond just speculation.

The XRP Ledger's DeFi features start attracting users looking for yield on their holdings, which increases network activity. If all these pieces come together, XRP can break through the $2.05 to $2.15 resistance zone and climb toward $2.30 to $2.45 in the near term. From there, a push to $3.00 or even $5.00 by mid-2026 becomes possible.

Base Scenario

In a more realistic scenario, XRP holds the $1.90 floor but can't break above resistance with any conviction. ETF inflows stay consistent but not aggressive enough to drive a major rally. They just keep the price from falling further. Ripple's payment network keeps growing but at a pace that doesn't shift market sentiment dramatically.

DeFi adoption on the XRP Ledger picks up slowly, adding utility without creating excitement. XRP tests the $2.05 to $2.15 range several times but can't push through, eventually settling into a sideways pattern between $1.95 and $2.15 through early 2026. The structure stays intact, leaving room for a cleaner breakout attempt later in the year when conditions improve.

Bearish Scenario

In a severe case, XRP loses $1.90 during a broader market selloff or if ETF inflows dry up. Selling accelerates as leveraged traders get stopped out, pushing the price down to $1.75 or $1.80 and destroying the technical setup.

Institutions hit pause on buying while they wait for clearer signals from regulators, which removes the steady demand that's been supporting prices. Ripple's payment network expansion slows down and DeFi activity on the XRP Ledger stalls, leaving no fundamental support for higher prices.

Under these conditions, XRP could drift lower through the first quarter of 2026, eventually finding support around $1.50 to $1.60 where long-term holders typically start buying again.

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