Morning Bid: Just a blip for risk assets, more Fed pain for the dollar

DX-Y.NYB -0.39%

By Yoruk Bahceli

LONDON, Dec 3 (Reuters) - By Yoruk Bahceli, markets correspondent

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

Risk assets are showing further signs of recovery on Wednesday from a broad selloff that kicked off the month, but bonds are sitting on their losses for now.

And the dollar is down with focus back to the Federal Reserve, with Trump delaying his pick for ​the next chair to 2026. Meanwhile, investors are stuck watching the ADP jobs report in the absence of November payrolls.

I’ll get into all the market news below.

But first check out Mike Dolan’s latest ‌column on why investors should worry less about so-called ‘vigilantes’ and pay more attention to bond-market ‘termites’.

And listen to the latest episode of the new Morning Bid daily podcast. Subscribe to hear Mike and other Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.

Today's ‌Market Minute

* Russia and the U.S. did not reach a compromise on apossible peace deal to end the war in Ukraine after a five-hourKremlin meeting between President Vladimir Putin and DonaldTrump's top envoys, the Kremlin said on Wednesday. * An acute global shortage of memory chips is forcingartificial intelligence and consumer-electronics companies tofight for dwindling supplies, as prices soar for the unglamorousbut essential components that allow devices to store data. * China is likely to stick to its current annual economicgrowth target of around 5% next year, government advisers andanalysts said, a goal that would require authorities to keepfiscal and monetary spigots open as they seek to snap adeflationary spell. * It’s been almost 10 months since the Democratic Republicof Congo, the world’s ⁠dominant cobalt supplier, halted exportsof the battery metal, which has been a booster ‌for thebombed-out cobalt price, writes ROI Mentals Columnist Andy Home. * Benchmark U.S. natural gas prices are ending 2025 just asthey entered it - with a strong rally. And that's bad news forpeople hoping for further cuts to U.S. coal use, writes ROIGlobal Energy Transition Columnist Gavin Maguire.

Was it all just a blip for risk assets?

The broad selloff that kicked ‍the week off for markets is proving to be a blip for risk assets.

After dropping half a percent on Monday, the S&P 500 rose 0.25% on Tuesday and futures were up in early London trading.

Bitcoin was up another 1.7% after rising nearly 6% on Tuesday. But it remains 26% below an October peak.

In other signs that it's not all plain sailing, 10-year Treasury yields dipped on Wednesday but were still up 7 basis points this week, while Japan's bond yields hit multi-year highs.

But in the ​absence of a narrative to drive markets, all focus remains on the Fed, its meeting next week where traders are banking on a rate cut, and who will lead it next.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on ‌Tuesday he would announce his pick for the next Fed chair -- largely expected to be White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett -- early next year, later than previously expected, having previously said he already knows who he'll pick.

Later on Tuesday, Trump said a potential Fed chair was present as he introduced Hassett at a meeting.

Bets on Hassett as the next Fed chair briefly dipped on betting site Polymarket on Tuesday, but quickly recovered.

Investors reckon Hassett, seen as favoring lower interest rates, could dent the dollar further. The euro and sterling reached their highest in over a month against the dollar on Wednesday as Fed rate cut bets continue to weigh on the dollar.

Focus turns to economic data, though the prints are unlikely to sway the Fed.

November's ADP report is expected to show private employers added 10,000 jobs, down from 42,000 in October, another sign of the labor market weakening.

While the ADP doesn't correlate ⁠with the government's jobs report, markets are watching alternatives more closely as November's official one will only be released after the ​Fed meeting, thanks to the U.S. government shutdown.

The ISM services PMI is also due, following data on Monday showing a ninth month ​of contraction for the manufacturing sector.

Elsewhere, it's all about geopolitics.

Russia and the U.S. did not reach a compromise on a possible Ukraine peace deal.

The European Union's executive arm is set to move ahead with a proposal to use frozen Russian assets to fund lending to Ukraine. It's also leaving open the possibility of raising funding through joint EU borrowing -- an option ‍financial markets would also welcome -- or a combination of the ⁠two.

But Belgium, home to Euroclear where the assets sit and concerned over legal repercussions, was quick to say the new proposals still don't address its concerns.

The bloc also agreed to phase out Russian gas imports, which still account for 12% of its total imports, by late 2027.

Chart of the day

White House Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett is still overwhelmingly seen as the candidate Trump will nominate to succeed Jay Powell ⁠as Federal Reserve Chair, according to betting site Polymarket.

Today's events to watch

* ADP national employment report (November)

* U.S. industrial production (September)

* ISM services PMI (November)

* S&P Global services, composite final PMIs (November)

* U.S. corporate earnings: Dollar Tree, Five Below, Macy's, Thor Industries, PVH Corp, Torrid Holdings, Tillys

Opinions expressed are ‌those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

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(By Yoruk Bahceli; Editing by Bernadette Baum)