Texas didn’t receive the CFP help it needed on Saturday

Although a College Football Playoff resume that now features three wins after Friday’s 27-17 victory over the No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies in Austin speaks loudly, the No. 16 Texas Longhorns are looking forward to Tuesday’s rankings to determine how close they are to the 12-team field heading into championship weekend.

Here’s the criteria the committee uses to separate comparable teams:

• Strength of schedule,

• Head-to-head competition,

• Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory), and,

• Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.

The AP Top 25 and the Coaches Poll both slot the Longhorns at No. 14 this week, providing some perspective on where the committee might rank Texas on Tuesday night. The frustrating aspect is that the two-loss Sooners and Commodores are both ranked ahead of head coach Steve Sarkisian’s program despite the Longhorns beating both teams this season. Ditto for one-loss Texas A&M, which dropped to No. 7 in both polls.

So while Texas could jump Vanderbilt with the strength of its Friday win, the separation between the Sooners and Longhorns remains significant with the committee clearing weighing Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer’s health against Texas in its rankings.

Beyond the discussion of whether the Horns are worthy of playing in the playoff for a third straight year, it’s impossible to ignore the poor results over the weekend — of the six Saturday games that featured teams ranked ahead of Texas, only one result went in favor of the Longhorns.

With No. 1 Ohio State finally breaking through against No. 15 Michigan with a 27-9 victory after four straight losses, the Wolverines dropped behind the Horns in the two polls released on Sunday.

Texas also moved in front of No. 13 Utah, which beat Kansas 31-21 on Friday, thanks to the win over A&M.

The other unfortunate development for the Longhorns? A bid steal from the ACC — with No. 18 Virginia and unranked Duke facing off in the championship game with an automatic berth on the line, a team ranked behind Texas will receive that bid.

Beyond the win by the Buckeyes, the other five games went against the Horns, including the No. 12 Hurricanes soundly beating the No. 22 Panthers, 38-7, with the final score bolstered by a last-minute touchdown scored by Miami. But since the Canes aren’t playing for the conference title, it’s possible that the ACC is a one-bid league.

No. 11 BYU was only up 17-14 against UCF at halftime before outscoring the Knights 24-7 in the second half. With the No. 32 strength of schedule in ESPN’s SP+, the Cougars certainly haven’t faced the quality of opponents the Longhorns, increasing the possibility that the committee moves three-loss Texas in front of two-loss BYU with a loss against No. 5 Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship game.

In the other game between a high-level team and a weak opponent, No. 9 Notre Dame blew out Stanford, 49-20. But since the Fighting Irish lost to the Aggies team that the Longhorns just beat, Texas could move in front of Notre Dame this week because of that win. It’s unlikely, but possible.

No. 10 Alabama pulled out the Iron Bowl in a 27-20 win thanks to a go-ahead touchdown with 3:50 remaining in the fourth quarter, landing a spot in the SEC Championship game in the process. Would the committee punish the Crimson Tide for a loss to the Bulldogs? It’s unlikely, but possible.

A major blow to Texas was No. 14 Vanderbilt beating No. 19 Tennessee convincingly, notching a 45-24 win on Rocky Top thanks to a dominant second half that favored the ‘Dores, 24-3. That outcome will make it more difficult for the committee to vault the Longhorns ahead of Clark Lea’s team.

So although wins by Tech and Georgia next weekend could help Texas, those outcomes might not move the needle for the committee, resulting in the Horns sitting at +2500 to make the playoff on FanDuel.