Housing Market Map Shows Steepest Price Drops Across US

By Giulia Carbonaro

Senior Housing Reporter

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Tampa, Florida, reported the biggest annual home price drop (-4.1 percent) of any U.S. metropolitan areas in September, according to the latest S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index, as property values in the city continued to fall.

Only three other cities reported year-over-year price drops larger than 1 percent, with the South dominating this short list, according to the index. These were Phoenix, Arizona (-2.0 percent); Dallas, Texas (-1.3 percent); and Miami, Florida (-1.3 percent).

Why Are These Cities Facing Such Steep Prices Drops?

All the cities that experienced the biggest annual home price drops in the country in September have one thing in common: They used to be what Nicholas Godec, the head of fixed income tradables and commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, calls "pandemic darlings."

Tampa, Phoenix, Dallas and Miami all experienced a surge in demand and home prices during the pandemic, as they faced a huge influx of newcomers seeking more affordable housing, a cheaper cost of living, lower taxes and good weather.

This spike, however, made these markets much less affordable, overall, than they used to be—often pricing out locals. At the same time, a construction boom—led by developers trying to respond to the pandemic surge in demand—has caused an oversupply of homes now that buyers have withdrawn to the sidelines of the market because of higher housing costs.

The result is the current downturns that these markets are facing.

Tampa has been at the heart of the stark price correction that the Sunshine State has experienced after the booming years of the pandemic. Based on S&P Global data, the decline in September is the city's 11th consecutive annual price drop.

According to the Case-Shiller Index, home prices in Tampa were down 4.1 percent in September compared to a year earlier.

Other real estate platforms report an even starker correction: According to Redfin, the median sale price of a home in Tampa was $410,000 in September, down 8.7 percent from a year earlier. In October, the median sale price of a home in the city had risen to $420,000, but the annual drop was even starker at -13.8 percent.

What Is Happening in the Rest of the Country?

All across the country, the vertiginous home price growth that characterized the pandemic years has slowed down significantly over the spring and summer. In September, according to the Case-Shiller Index, annual home price gain was 1.3 percent for September, down from 1.4 percent a month earlier.

Commenting on the data, Godec called it "the weakest performance since mid-2023."

At a metro level, all 20 U.S. cities analyzed in the index reported month-over-month declines in September. In terms of annual price changes, only 10 cities reported price drops that same month. Besides the top four already mentioned, the list included San Diego and San Francisco in California (both at -0.8 percent); Las Vegas, Nevada, and Denver, Colorado (both at -0.7 percent); Seattle, Washington (at -0.5 percent); and Atlanta, Georgia (at -0.1 percent).

Some cities are faring better than others, especially in the Northeast and Midwest, where tight inventory continues to prop up prices. Among the 20 cities tracked by the Case-Shiller Index, Chicago, Illinois, posted the largest annual home price growth at 5.5 percent, followed by New York City, New York, with 5.2 percent and Boston, Massachusetts, with 4.1 percent.

Anthony Smith, a senior economist at Realtor.com, said in a statement shared with Newsweek that the market was "adjusting unevenly" to "sticky home prices and high borrowing costs," which continue to hinder affordability in the U.S. housing market this fall. This, in turn, has given rise to a sharp regional divide and a bifurcated market.

"Regional results underscore a widening split between resilient Northeastern and Midwestern metros and weakening markets across the Sun Belt and West," Smith said.

"These markets continue to benefit from tighter resale supply and more stable underlying demand. Lower rates of price reductions and limited inventory turnover are helping support firmer appreciation in these parts of the country," he continued.

Godec described this regional divide as "a tale of two markets." While Northeastern and Midwestern metros have "sustained momentum even as broader market conditions soften," he said, Sun Belt markets have shown a "particular weakness" following the "most dramatic" pandemic-era price increases.

"The geographic rotation is striking. Markets that were pandemic darlings—particularly in Florida, Arizona, and Texas—are now experiencing outright price declines," Godec added. "Meanwhile, traditionally stable metros in the Northeast and Midwest continue to post solid gains, suggesting a reversion to pre-pandemic patterns where job markets and urban fundamentals drive appreciation rather than migration trends and remote-work dynamics."

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