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T-Mobile US (TMUS) has launched the most aggressive Black Friday holiday promotion for wireless phone subscribers, analysts say. T-Mobile stock and shares in AT&T (T) and Verizon Communications (VZ) have been pressured by investor worries over a wireless price war.
Wireless competition has intensified in 2025, pressuring profit margins, say Wall Street analysts. AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile have increased subsidies on mobile phones amid Apple's (AAPL) rollout of iPhone 17 models. And, the wireless firms have stepped up phone trade-in promotions that offer consumers buyouts if they terminate contracts.
Apple IPhone 17 Drives Promotions
"All three carriers are getting aggressive on promos surrounding iPhone 17s, iPads and Apple watches, with T-Mobile leading the pack with its four lines for $25 per month each and a free iPhone on each line without a trade in," said TD Cowen analyst Gregory Williams in a report.
He added: "As carriers surgically pick and choose holiday offers, pulsing in and out of the market, we'll keep an eye on if Verizon and AT&T release 'me too' offers that look and feel similar to T-Mobile's."
Craig Moffett, analyst at MoffettNathanson, holds a similar view.
"T-Mobile's acquisition offers are richer than last year's, and dramatically so for customers on entry-level plans," said Moffett in a report. "T-Mobile has enormously upped the ante for switchers opting for entry-level plans. But their offers for switchers opting for premium plans have been significantly sweetened, as well."
Moffett added: "T-Mobile's Black Friday offers were similarly eye-catching last year, and the additional devices require new service plans. But in a sign of the times, each element of T-Mobile's offer is richer, and the hurdles to eligibility lower, than last year."
Controlled by Deutsche Telekom (DTEGY), T-Mobile reported third-quarter earnings and revenue that edged by consensus estimates while adding more high-spending phone subscribers than expected.
Also, T-Mobile said it added over one million "postpaid" phone subscribers vs. estimates of 841,000. That topped AT&T, which added 405,000, and Verizon.
What To Do After Big Bullish Market Week
Intensifying Wireless Competition
T-Mobile stock has dropped 5% in 2025 and has retreated from a high of 276.49 set on March 3.
At Oppenheimer, analyst Timothy Horan recently downgraded TMUS stock to market perform from outperform.
"We think the company will have a difficult time beating subscriber and free cash flow estimates after a decade of outsized share gains and margin expansion," Horan said in a report. "We believe that overall industry subscriber growth is set to slow and will intensify competition. In this regard, Comcast (CMCSA) has aggressively lowered its broadband prices, and we expect Verizon to use its $4 billion in expense savings to increase handset promotions and content bundles. We suspect this intense competition will last a year or two, and ultimately T-Mobile will look to increase prices and slow share gains."
T-Mobile Stock Technical Ratings
T-Mobile in September named Chief Operating Officer Srini Gopalan as its next CEO. Gopalan succeeded Mike Sievert, who led T-Mobile after its 2020 merger with rival Sprint.
Further, T-Mobile stock holds an Accumulation/Distribution Rating of E. That gauges institutional buying and selling of the stock over the past 13 weeks. A+ signifies heavy institutional buying; E means heavy selling. Think of a C grade as neutral.
T-Mobile shares hold a disappointing IBD Composite Rating of 40 out of a best-possible 99. IBD's Composite Rating is a blend of key fundamental and technical metrics to help investors gauge a stock's strengths.
Follow Reinhardt Krause on X, formerly Twitter, @reinhardtk_tech for updates on artificial intelligence, cybersecurity and cloud computing.
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