Boise State sneaks out of Logan with one-point win over Utah State, will host Mountain West title game thanks to metrics

Boise State sneaks out of Logan with one-point win over Utah State, will host Mountain West title game thanks to metricsStory byAiden PettersonMon, December 1, 2025 at 5:31 AM UTC·6 min read

Football is a funny thing, ain’t it?

A month ago, the sky was falling after a humiliating loss to Fresno State and Maddux Madsen’s injury

Another defeat a week later against San Diego State further plunged Bronco fans into a state of pessimism.

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But as fate would have it, Boise State got off the mat and responded with a victory against Colorado State that set up a do-or-die scenario at Maverik Stadium.

Madsen remained out, but in a sign of progress, he did not wear a boot.

Utah State set the tone early, gashing the Broncos’ defensive line via the ground game that included a 56-yard touchdown by Javen Jacobs that reclaimed the lead.

However, a pick-six by Boise State’s Jeremiah Earby was waved off due to a more than controversial pass interference penalty. To the naked eye, it looked like a clean effort – one that wasn’t even filibustered by the wide receiver as he attempted to track down Earby.

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Most of the second quarter was lifeless, but with less than two minutes to go, the Aggies extended their lead to 11 thanks to Miles Davis’ 11-yard touchdown run.

Not a positive development for a Boise State team that has gone in fits and starts on offense.

The Broncos salvaged the half with a Colton Boomer field goal to jog into the break down 21-13.

In the third quarter, Utah State largely dominated the clock, but not the scoreboard. A three-minute drive that went as far as the Boise State 20-yard line only ended in a Tanner Rinker field goal to back up 11.

The door was still very much open.

And just as the doctor ordered, Max Cutforth delivered a play-action strike to wide receiver Quinton Brown for a much-needed 66-yard touchdown restored life into Boise State’s sideline.

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Entering the fourth quarter, Utah State returned into enemy territory and had the ball at the BSU 12-yard line, facing a fourth-and-two dilemma.

Kick and go up eight, or take the risk of going for it in hopes of dealing a death blow?

Right or wrong, Aggie head coach Bronco Mendenhall went for the jugular, trusting his Rambo-like quarterback, Bryson Barnes, to make a play.

Bronco linebacker Roman Caywood had other plans as he stifled Barnes prior to the line-to-gain.

Boise State methodically worked its way down the field and made it to the USU 38, but was forced to punt.

Once again, Erik Chinander’s defense was tasked with coming up with another pivotal stop as nine minutes remained.

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And like clockwork, a combo sack by Caywood and Braxton Fely put the Aggies behind the eight ball, forcing a three-and-out.

An unlucky bounce on Landon Rehkow’s punt gave Boise State prime field position at the USU 47.

In a drive looked poised to end in points, they marched down the field. But with snow falling in Logan, running back Sire Gaines entered the game and on a ten-yard run, coughed up the ball that was recovered by Utah State.

The definition of shooting yourself in the foot.

With the ball and eight minutes left, the Aggies chipped their way down the field before stalling out at their own 42-yard line.

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Facing another fourth-and-short situation – this one being fourth-and-one – Mendenhall doubled down and put the ball in the hands of Barnes again.

And once more, Boise State came up with a monumental stop to begin their next drive with great field position.

This time, Dylan Riley was given each carry and eventually punched in a six-yard run to recapture the lead, 25-24.

The two-point conversion was no good.

A game of punt and defend played out the rest of the quarter, and by some miracle, Boise State found a way to win, preserving its chances of reaching a fourth-straight Mountain West title game.

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During the high-pressured moments in Logan, New Mexico was wrapping up a double overtime victory over fellow conference contender San Diego State. It was the loudest I have ever seen an Albuquerque football crowd be.

After the Lobos’ win, all eyes turned to Utah Sate as they needed the Aggies to beat Boise State in order to clinch a spot in the conference championship and hosting the game.

Let’s just say that New Mexico fans weren’t fond of Bronco Mendenhall’s fourth-down bravery.

With Friday’s action concluded, the only influential game remaining was UNLV-Nevada.

And, in short, the Rebels wasted no time ending the suspense in Reno.

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A four-way tie between New Mexico, San Diego State, Boise State, and UNLV had come to fruition.

With head-to-head results not being applicable due to not all four teams playing one another, the computer metrics written into the Mountain West’s tiebreakers would be relied upon.

The conference said the calculations wouldn’t be released until Sunday morning as the four rankings utilized – Connelly SP+, SportSource, ESPN’s SOR and KPI Rankings – needed to be current after Saturday’s results.

As promised, the Mountain West released the composite rankings, and in the end, UNLV and Boise State were the beneficiaries of the almighty computer tabulations.

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Since the two participants were decided, head-to-head then declared who would host.

That would be the Boise State Broncos.

After all the ups and downs of 2025, Spencer Danielson and company stayed the course, now being rewarded with yet another conference championship appearance.

Danielson is a perfect three-for-three in doing so during his tenure, including his spot as an interim head coach in 2023.

It wasn’t the cleanest path, but beggars can’t be choosers.

Now, Boise State will prepare to play UNLV for the second time in 2025 and for the fifth time in the last three years.

In October, the Broncos outclassed the visiting Rebels, winning 56-31 as Dylan Riley ran for more than 200 yards.

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The winner will likely play in the LA Bowl against a former Pac-12 member.

However, there is a non-zero chance that the Mountain West champion could be in the national discussion come next Sunday when the College Football Playoff field is announced.

For those not aware, there is a situation brewing in the ACC that could open the door for a second Group of Five champion to break into the 12-team field.

With a 7-5 record, the Duke Blue Devils have remarkably found themselves in the ACC title game where they will face Virginia.

A UVA win would extinguish any hopes for the Sun Belt or Mountain West.

However, if Duke wins, their 8-5 resume, which features losses to Illinois, Tulane, Georgia Tech, UConn, and Virginia, would be first compared to a possible 12-1 Sun Belt champion via James Madison.

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Give me the Dukes over Duke.

But… if James Madison loses and Duke wins, then the Mountain West champion – either 11-2 UNLV or 9-4 Boise State – could be thrown into the discussion for the final conference champion auto bid spot.

That’s a lot of dominoes to fall in the Mountain West’s favor, but never say never.

Granted, if the inclusion of two “have nots” happens, then expect outrage from a certain news outlet out of Bristol, Connecticut, and a postseason format overhaul this winter.

The Broncos.

The Rebels.

Part two on The Blue.

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