Rams still hold dominant advantage for 1-seed

The Los Angeles Rams fell out of the top spot in the NFC playoff picture, but the team they fell behind for the number one seed is 16th in point differential. If you’re going to be the 2-seed with five games to go, there are better teams to be trailing than the Chicago Bears.

It’s certainly too early to be worried about the sky falling on the Rams.

The Rams still lead the NFC West despite having the same number of wins as the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers. If the Rams beat the Seahawks in Week 16, it would be nothing short of a mini-miracle for Seattle to win the division regardless of what else happens.

So as long as the Rams beat the Seahawks, they will stand a good chance of overtaking Chicago for the number one seed again.

The Bears are 9-3 and winners of their last five games, but they hold just a +6 point differential on the season. Granted that most of that deficit came all the way back in a 52-21 Week 2 loss to the Lions, but Chicago has a long ways to go before they’re considered threatening. Just consider the fact that quarterback Caleb Williams has completed under 60% of his pass attempts in eight of the last nine games (total: 56.4% completion rate), including going 17-of-36 (47%) in Chicago’s most recent win over the Eagles.

Williams is getting the classic “he just wins” tag because…well, it’s true. He just wins. He doesn’t seem to do much else.

And it’s hard to win consistently in the NFL if you can’t pass the ball.

The Bears remaining schedule:

• at Packers

• vs Browns

• vs Packers

• at 49ers

• vs Lions

Hypothetically if the Bears split their series against Green Bay and lose just one of two games against the 49ers and Lions, then Chicago finishes no better than 12-5.

There’s no guarantee that the Rams will win four of their last five games to finish at least 13-4, but they’re certainly talented enough to do that. Nothing about those chances changed just because the Rams lost to the Panthers this week.

Carolina kind of had to have a perfect day to get Bryce Young his first career win over a great team and that’s sort of what happened. The Rams lost because of turnovers and pass defense. This chart by Sam Hoppen shows that most of the value gained by the Panthers and/or lost by the Rams came on turnovers by L.A. and pass defense against Young:

The Rams lost to a Panthers team that is 7-6. They might not be a great team, but Carolina certainly isn’t the worst team either. I mean, to what degree are the Panthers really that much worse than the Bears?

For the Rams, they know that either the Bears are going to knock the 49ers down a peg or the 49ers are going to knock the Bears down a peg when the two teams meet later this season. L.A. also knows that either the Seahawks will beat the 49ers or the 49ers will beat the Seahawks when the two teams meet in Week 18.

It’s not possible for the Bears, 49ers, and Seahawks to all win out. Only one of them can. But the Rams can win out and that would also give L.A. a win over Seattle.

Per PlayoffStatus.com, the Rams still have a 15% chance to win the Super Bowl (1st) and 44% chance to reach the conference championship (1st in NFC by wide margin). The Athletic estimates a 42% chance of the Rams to earn the 1-seed in the NFC, which is almost 30% higher than second-place Green Bay. 42% chance!

So even though the Rams lost their first game in 2 months, dropped out of the 1-seed, and no longer hold sole possession of first place in the NFC West, realistically very little changed by L.A. losing to Carolina in Week 13. The Rams are still in control of their destiny and have the most ideal path towards the top seed and a bye week in the NFC relative to the other teams — some of whom still look rather pedestrian — in the running.