Bryce Young's 2026 is cloudy. The former first overall draft pick — the player for whom the Carolina Panthers mortgaged their future — has been uneven this fall. He's thrown for fewer than 160 yards in half his games. He found a way to lose to the New Orleans Saints and had just 111 total yards in Carolina's upset win in Green Bay.
Despite those struggles, he's once again showing the late-season improvement that speaks to both head coach Dave Canales' adjustments as a playcaller and Young's malleability as a passer. Two weeks ago, Young exploded for 448 yards and three touchdowns in an overtime win against the Atlanta Falcons. In Week 13, with the difficulty ratcheted up as high as it can go against the NFL's top-ranked defense, Young managed to out-do himself.
Young threw for 206 yards on only 20 attempts. He threw three touchdowns without a turnover for a 147.1 passer rating against a defense that had held opposing quarterbacks to a 79.8 average rating. With nearly his full complement of skill players back and healthy, he continued to be the rocket boosters to Tetairoa McMillan's rookie of the year campaign and reminded as all how good Jalen Coker had been in stretches as an undrafted rookie last winter.
Look at those clips. Two fourth-and-short situations for an offense saying damn the torpedoes. Young didn't check down. He played fearless, spotted single coverage and put the ball exactly where it needed to be. His offense converted 10 of 18 third- or fourth-down situations (three for three on fourth down) against a defense whose 35 percent conversion rate allowed was fifth-best in the league before Sunday.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementWe've seen moments like this before, albeit largely against the Falcons. Young went to Los Angeles with his team eying the top spot in the NFC South and shined as brightly as he ever has. But there's a familiarity here that is a bit disconcerting.
In 2024, his first season with Canales, Young was responsible for a 1-5 record over the first half of the year, threw three touchdowns against six interceptions and was briefly benched for Andy Dalton. his expected points added (EPA) per dropback in that stretch was -0.26 per dropback, 37th best among 38 quarterbacks to play at least 100 snaps in that span. He finished the season on a relative heater, going 3-5 and slinging 12 touchdown passes against three picks. His 0.141 EPA per dropback ranked 14th among starters.
His progress hasn't been as linear this season. He's had four games this season with an EPA of -11 or worse, including in last week's loss to the San Francisco 49ers. He's only had two weeks with an EPA higher than 0.7, and those were double-digit explosions sandwiched around the Niners game.
Consistency remains a virtue lost to Young. But his big performances after the season's halfway point are nearing a trend. He's got one season left on his rookie contract before a potential (and expensive) fifth-year team option kicks in. The Panthers need to figure out if there's a way to unlock Sunday's version of him full time before investing heavily in a player who has been awful more often than he's been good.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementStill, Week 13 was proof Young can be the kind of quarterback who out-duels an MVP candidate on the road with the postseason looming. If nothing else, Carolina knows what he's capable of.
Now let's talk about the guys who played like Young in the first half of 2024.
To get a better idea of who performed best relative to expectations in Week 13, I've compared every starting quarterback's expected points added (EPA, found here in real time thanks to some exceptional work from The Athletic's Ben Baldwin) to their 2025 average. The players who sunk below their own standard the hardest? They're the ones who get written about. Max Brosmer may have stunk, but expected that and came into Week 13 lacking any previous data to which we can compare him.
But before we dig into the passing schadenfreude, let's talk about the quarterbacks who exceeded their standard in Week 13.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementJordan Love, Green Bay Packers
2025 EPA/game: 7.3
Week 13 EPA: 18.3
Difference: 11.0 points better
Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons
2025 EPA/game: -6.4
Week 13 EPA: 6.6
Difference: 13.0 points better
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
2025 EPA/game: -4.2
Week 13 EPA: 10
Difference: 14.2 points better
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
2025 EPA/game: 5.7
Week 13 EPA: 19.9
Difference: 14.2 points better
Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
2025 EPA/game: -4.6
Week 13 EPA: 15.1
Difference: 19.7 points better
Now, onto the guys who stunk (noticeably more than usual, in some cases)
4. Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers
PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA - NOVEMBER 30: Aaron Rodgers #8 of the Pittsburgh Steelers reacts after a play against the Buffalo Bills in the third quarter of a game at Acrisure Stadium on November 30, 2025 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images)2025 EPA/game: -1.9
Week 13 EPA: -9.6
Difference: 7.7 points worse
Rodgers returned from a broken wrist in time to be treated to a new type of pain against the Buffalo Bills. While the Baltimore Ravens' Thanksgiving night loss opened the door for the Steelers to reclaim the top spot in the AFC North (and left Lamar Jackson a fraction away from making this list as well), Rodgers' uncharacteristic lack of pocket awareness helped give it right back.
Rodgers alternated between looking uncomfortable and entirely *too* comfortable in the pocket. He was only sacked once but flushed from the pocket multiple times, only for the throws he once used to crush NFC North opponents' hopes to be slung into traffic. Only two of his 10 completions came more than six yards downfield. Approximately 89 of his 117 passing yards came after the catch.
After looking slightly revitalized early in the season — hey, when you're 41 and two years removed from a torn Achilles, just being able to execute a play-fake and roll out counts — Rodgers looks every bit his age. He appeared to be a man ready to shatter into pieces from one wrong hit, suddenly lacking the preternatural flight response that had served him so well throughout his career. The Steelers trailed throughout the second half, yet Rodgers only threw six passes that traveled more than 10 yards downfield against a flawed Buffalo secondary.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThat's not just a Rodgers problem — DK Metcalf is the easiest double-team in the world right now and only Kenneth Gainwell and Darnell Washington have stepped up on anything approaching a consistent basis in the passing game. Even so, it's clear the Steelers quick-hit offense has been figured out and their quarterback lacks the capability to create a consistent downfield game to buttress it.
The only upside is that Mason Rudolph entered the game for one series after Rodgers left to get his nose bandaged up after the brutal sack above. He attempted three passes and completed more to the Bills (one) than his own teammates. It's entirely possible Mike Tomlin is calling fourth-and-two plays like this just so he can earn his sweet release from the football purgatory that is Pittsburgh.
3. Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans
2025 EPA/game: -9.3
Week 13 EPA: -17.9
Difference: 8.6 points worse
Ward was trending upward. His EPA over the last six games before Week 13? -16.8, -15.8, -11.1, -5.1, -1.4, 4.5. That was progress! Real, optimism building, recognizable progress!
Anyway, all that's gone to hell now.
Ward dropped back 42 times against the league's 27th-ranked passing defense. He gained 128 total yards — a shade over three yards per play. He threw 10 passes that traveled more than 10 yards downfield and completed two of them for a grand total of 29 yards.
That's all concerning, but understandable. Ward's top target Sunday was Gunnar Helm, a fourth round rookie tight end. His top wideouts are Chimere Dike, Elic Ayomanor and Van Jefferson (five catches on 13 targets).
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementAt the same time, Ward was the quarterback putting those guys in tough situations by leading them into big hits. He was the one throwing a five-yard checkdown on 4th-and-18, albeit with seven minutes left in a game the Titans trailed by 22. He was the one in the midst of arguably his least accurate game as a pro.
Whatever modest steam Ward's hype train had built up dissipated into the atmosphere Sunday afternoon. He's capable of much more. Whether we'll see it over the final five weeks of a lost 2025 is a different story.
2. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Nov 30, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) is sacked by Carolina Panthers defensive end Derrick Brown (95) during the fourth quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Kinser-Imagn Images2025 EPA/game: 6.2
Week 13 EPA: -3.5
Difference: 9.7 points worse
Stafford did some of the things we've come to expect from him this season. He zeroed in on Davante Adams in the red zone (two touchdowns). He let Puka Nacua do absolute superhero stuff.
He also did things we haven't seen from him this fall. He hadn't thrown an interception since Week 3. His first came on the tip drill equivalent of a volleyball set, which took points off the board but could be chalked up at least partially to bad luck.
The second was a bad decision on a tightly covered out route that Stafford couldn't laser out of Mike Jackson's grasp, leading to seven Carolina points.
After two total turnovers his previous eight games, Stafford had three against Carolina — one returned for a touchdown, one deep in the red zone and the final one a strip-sack on third down with Los Angeles inside field goal range in the final three minutes of a 31-28 game. In terms of EPA, the Rams' three most impactful plays were those three Stafford mistakes, racking up -18 points of expected value in roughly 30 seconds of game time.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThat was enough to overpower his positive impact on the game — an 18 of 28 performance with a pair of touchdowns and 243 passing yards. His lapses let the Panthers escape with a win behind the power of Week 13's biggest quarterback improvement.
Will this crush Stafford's MVP chances? Probably not, though it'll give Drake Maye some shorter odds depending on how he does against the New York Giants' pass rush without two starting offensive linemen (with a 105.8 passer rating under pressure, I imagine he'll be OK). He'll catch a modest breather next week against the Arizona Cardinals before a three-game stretch that could decide the MVP vote AND top seed in the NFC against the Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks and Atlanta Falcons (hey! They've got a pass rush that doesn't suck eggs right now!).
1. Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks
2025 EPA/game: 4.5
Week 13 EPA: -7.5
Difference: 12 points worse
It wasn't the focus, because Darnold was playing against a Vikings quarterback who was secretly three 10-year-olds in a trench coat. But while Max Brosmer was busy finding a way to get sacked twice on the same possession after throwing an interception, Darnold was sort of a mess. Minnesota figured out the best was to limit Jaxon Smith-Njigba was through disinterest. His quarterback's efforts to spread the ball around against an overmatched foe failed to pay off.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementSmith-Njigba had just two catches on four targets and Darnold gained 94 net yards on 30 dropbacks. The game's lone offensive touchdown came on a 17-yard Zach Charbonnet run long after the outcome had been decided. Maybe Darnold could have turned things around, but it was abundantly clear there was no need.
Even so, the veteran's passing was sloppy. Only three of his 14 completions came more than five yards downfield. He blanked an early, very telegraphed five-man blitz that gave Seattle its only possession inside Seattle's 28-yard line.
His offense's decision to block Andrew Van Ginkel with a tight end (and some theoretical tailback chipping help) took another touchdown opportunity off the board.
In true Vikings fashion, Darnold was blitzed on 63 percent of his dropbacks by his former team. On Sunday, he looked every bit a player whose EPA per snap flips from 0.40 without pressure to -0.46 when his pocket is collapsing. The Seahawks have the defense to hang with just about anyone in the NFL. Their offense, however, could be in real trouble if teams can consistently make Darnold nervous behind center.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThis article originally appeared on For The Win: Matthew Stafford's rapid disassembly and the 4 grossest QBs of Week 13
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