Merab Dvalishvili, Alexandre Pantoja are sizable favorites at UFC 323

Heading into the final pay-per-view of 2025 (and possibly ever), both the UFC is expected to have the same champions at the start of 2026.

This Saturday, UFC 323 goes down in Las Vegas, headlined by a bantamweight title fight between Merab Dvalishvili and Petr Yan, and featuring a flyweight title fight between Alexandre Pantoja and Joshua Van. And as things stand, both men enter the event as betting favorites.

Per FanDuel, Dvalishvili is a -500 betting favorite over Yan, with the comeback on Yan at +340. That implies Dvalishvili has an 83 percent chance to emerge victorious on Saturday. That’s a dramatic shift from the first time these two men met in 2023, where Dvalishvili was a +210 underdog. Dvalishvili won a dominant decision that night and has gone on a generational run since then, winning the bantamweight title and defending three times this year. Should he succeed in the rematch against Yan, Dvalishvili will be the first UFC fighter to ever win four title fights in a year.

Meanwhile, Pantoja is a smaller favorite at -265, with the comeback on Van at +200, an implied win probability of 72 percent. Pantoja has firmly established himself as the second-greatest flyweight of all time, with four successful title defenses to his name already.

UFC 323 takes place this Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.