Examining Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt CFP resume with Miami, BYU, Utah

Vanderbilt football hasn't been eliminated from the College Football Playoff. But even after doing its part, finishing the regular season 10-2 with a 45-24 win over Tennessee on Nov. 29, the Commodores may not receive a bid.

As of the committee's most recent rankings, released before the Tennessee game, Vanderbilt was sixth in the SEC pecking order, behind Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss, Oklahoma and Alabama. Texas A&M, Georgia and Ole Miss all have 11 wins. Texas also threw a wrench into things by defeating the Aggies. The Longhorns are 9-3 but with a head-to-head win over the Commodores.

Vanderbilt will gain clarity on its standing in the College Football Playoff rankings release Dec. 2. If the Commodores are ranked below No. 11 in the rankings, their chances of receiving a bid are effectively zero. Ranked at No. 10 or 11, there is a chance of receiving a bid but it is not guaranteed, depending on conference championship game results.

Here's where Vanderbilt's resume stands:

Vanderbilt's standing among other SEC teams

Vanderbilt has remained behind Oklahoma and Alabama ever since the Sooners' win over the Crimson Tide. It seems unlikely that a win over Tennessee would be enough to pass either team since both also beat the Vols.

The Commodores did not play Oklahoma, but the two teams had seven common opponents. They had the same results over six of those seven opponents, with both teams beating South Carolina, LSU, Missouri, Auburn and Tennessee and both losing to Texas. The difference is that the Sooners won their road game against Alabama while Vanderbilt did not. In the one SEC game that was not in common, Vanderbilt blew out Kentucky while Oklahoma lost to Ole Miss. The Sooners also rank higher than the Commodores in strength of schedule and strength of record.

The head-to-head loss hurts Vanderbilt in its comparison against Alabama, which has a much better win than any the Commodores have (over Georgia) but also a much worse loss (to Florida State). The Crimson Tide can remove any doubt by winning the SEC Championship Game. If they lose, however, that dampens the value of Alabama's best win. The committee's previous behavior indicates that they are unlikely to leave out a conference championship game loser for a team from the same conference that lost head-to-head, but it's not out of the question.

Texas, meanwhile, has the head-to-head win as well as two wins better than Vanderbilt's best (against Oklahoma and Texas A&M), but the Longhorns have three losses overall, including one to Florida. Texas has a worse strength of record than the Commodores against a more difficult schedule. It is unclear whether the committee would rank a three-loss Texas over a two-loss Vanderbilt, but the updated rankings will provide clarity.

Can Vanderbilt pass Miami, Utah or BYU?

In order to have any chance to pass a potential SEC Championship Game loser, Vanderbilt also will need to be ranked ahead of Miami, Utah and BYU, all of which are ahead of the Commodores in the latest rankings.

Utah (10-2) has the flimsiest resume of the three. The Utes don't have a standout win and lost to both BYU and Texas Tech, while also not looking good at the end of the season. Utah ranks below Vanderbilt in both strength of schedule and strength of record.

Miami and BYU are more difficult cases.

BYU (11-1) is in the Big 12 Championship Game against Texas Tech, a team that gave it its only loss. A second loss to the Red Raiders would probably eliminate the Cougars, but if BYU wins, there is a good chance it would be a bid thief with both the Cougars and Texas Tech getting in. BYU has a worse schedule strength but better strength of record than Vanderbilt. (It's unclear how those metrics would be impacted by the Big 12 championship game.)

Miami (10-2) has become a media darling of late, with many in the national sphere calling for the ACC to change its rules to let the Hurricanes in the ACC Championship Game despite its losses to SMU and Louisville. Miami is potentially problematic for Vanderbilt due to its head-to-head win over Notre Dame, which is safely in the field. But how heavily will that one win weigh? The Hurricanes are below the Commodores in strength of schedule and strength of record.

Aria Gerson covers Vanderbilt athletics for The Tennessean. Contact her at [email protected] or on X @aria_gerson.

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: How Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt CFP resume compares to Miami, BYU, Utah