Bowl projections for Tennessee football after loss to Vanderbilt

Tennessee football likely will land in the Gator Bowl or Music City Bowl after losing 45-24 to Vanderbilt in the 2025 regular-season finale.

The Duke’s Mayo Bowl also could be a possibility.

Tennessee (8-4, 4-4 SEC) is not assured of a Florida bowl like it would’ve been with a win over rival Vanderbilt (10-2, 6-2). That lopsided loss on Nov. 29 and the College Football Playoff scenarios have reshuffled the deck.

For non-playoff teams, the SEC office tries to serve as matchmaker for its schools and affiliated bowls. Each school submits its preferred bowl games, and the bowls choose their preferred schools. The conference office gets the final say, considering the records and rankings of each team.

The only exception is the Citrus Bowl, which independently gets first choice of non-playoff SEC teams. The CFP and bowls selections will be announced on Dec. 7.

Here are Tennessee’s projected bowl scenarios.

How Tennessee could play in Gator Bowl

The Gator Bowl will be played on Dec. 27 in Jacksonville, Florida. It’s generally considered third or fourth in the pecking order of SEC-affiliated bowls outside the CFP. But that’s in the eye of the beholder.

How it happens: If the SEC gets five teams into the CFP, the Vols have a decent chance of going to the Gator Bowl. For now, those CFP teams would be Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss, Oklahoma and Alabama.

The Citrus Bowl would select Texas. The ReliaQuest Bowl would take Vanderbilt. Tennessee and Missouri would be next with 8-4 records.

Why the Vols?: If Missouri goes to the Texas Bowl (Dec. 27 in Houston) or Duke’s Mayo Bowl (Jan. 2 in Charlotte), Tennessee could choose the Gator Bowl over the Music City Bowl. It’s far from a no-brainer, but teams often prefer warm weather bowls.

Why not the Vols?: Missouri played in the Music City Bowl last season, so it won’t go there in consecutive years. That could open the door for Missouri to go to the Gator Bowl rather than the Texas or Duke’s Mayo bowls, pushing the Vols to Music City.

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How Tennessee could play in Music City Bowl

The Music City Bowl will be played on Dec. 30 in Nashville. It’s generally considered comparable to the Gator Bowl, albeit in a colder climate.

How it happens: Tennessee could go to the Music City Bowl with four or five SEC teams in the CFP. The Vols could slide there in some scenarios or choose Nashville as their best option. There are numerous scenarios.

Why the Vols?: The Music City Bowl has a more favorable date because players and coaches can spend Christmas at home before traveling to the site. Travel costs would be much lower going to Nashville compared to Jacksonville, and ticket sales would be better. With schools budgeting NIL money for building a roster, that matters. So UT may choose the Music City Bowl over the Gator Bowl.

Why not the Vols?: Teams usually opt for Florida bowls when they’re available. Plus, the optics aren’t great for UT in the Music City Bowl. Its last trip there was in 2021, coach Josh Heupel’s debut season. And the Vols probably would practice at Vanderbilt before the Music City Bowl. That could be uncomfortable.

How Tennessee could play in Duke’s Mayo Bowl

The Duke’s Mayo Bowl will be played on Jan. 2 in Charlotte. It’s technically on the same level as the Gator, Music City and a few other bowls. But the matchup and location make it more or less preferable to those games.

How it happens: If only four SEC teams make the CFP, the non-playoff teams would be bumped down one level further than expected. Texas would make its first Citrus Bowl appearance. Vanderbilt and another playoff-snubbed team would fill the ReliaQuest and Gator bowls, pushing Tennessee to the next tier.

Why the Vols?: The Music City Bowl may choose LSU, which hasn’t played there since 2014. That likely would push Tennessee to the Duke’s Mayo Bowl as a geographic fit.

Why not the Vols?: It’s hard to believe Tennessee would choose the Duke’s Mayo Bowl over the Music City Bowl. And it’s hard to believe the Music City Bowl would pass on the Vols if they were available. UT certainly doesn’t want to play on Jan. 2, when the transfer portal opens, so that's a knock against the Duke's Mayo Bowl.

Tennessee has never played in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. But it played in the regular season version of the game in the 2024 Duke’s Mayo Classic. So there are better fits in this game than the Vols.

Adam Sparks is the Tennessee football beat reporter. Email [email protected]. X, formerly known as Twitter@AdamSparks. Support strong local journalism by subscribing at knoxnews.com/subscribe.

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This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Tennessee football bowl projections after loss to Vanderbilt