College Football Playoff bracket for conference championship week: Projecting top four seeds, first-round matchups, bubble teams originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
For the second straight year, the ACC championship game is the center of college football chaos. Last year, it helped the conference get two bids.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThis year? Well, that's a loaded question.
Virginia (10-2, 7-1) clinched a spot in the ACC championship game with a 27-7 victory against Virginia Tech. The Cavaliers have two losses – including a 35-31 loss to NC State on Sept. 6 in a non-conference game that didn't count toward the ACC standings.That's the most normal part of this story.
Cal beat SMU 38-35, which sent five-loss Duke (7-5, 6-2) to the ACC championship game. The Blue Devils lost three non-conferences games, but they won a five-team tiebreaker for second place that included Miami (10-2, 6-2), the highest-ranked ACC team in the last College Football Playoff rankings.
The ACC could get two teams in the CFP if Virginia beats Duke and Miami wins the head-to-head debate with Notre Dame, which remains the most controversial debate on the board.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe ACC also could be left out of the CFP if the Blue Devils win because the five highest-ranked conference champions get in. The American Conference champion – either Tulane (10-2) or North Texas (11-1) – and the Sun Belt champion if its James Madison (11-1) could take those two spots. Would Miami get an at-large spot without winning the conference in that scenario? Tuesday's rankings will be significant between the Irish and Hurricanes because neither team is playing on conference championship weekend.
Here is a look at our latest playoff projections, including first-round byes, first-round matchups and bubble teams.
Dropped out: None
Moved in: None
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementProjected College Football Playoff first-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (12-0, 9-0; Big Ten champion)
The Buckeyes ended a four-game losing streak to Michigan with a 27-9 victory in The Game. Julian Sayin (19 of 26, 233 yards, 3 TDs, INT) shook off an early turnover, and Bo Jackson (22-117) helped the Buckeyes out-rush the Wolverines 186-100. Ohio State advances to the Big Ten championship game to face Indiana – and the Buckeyes will get a first round bye win or lose at this point.
MORE: There is a gap at QB between Ohio State and Michigan
No. 2 Georgia (11-1, 7-1; SEC at-large)
Georgia pulled out a 16-9 victory against rival Georgia Tech at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Friday; one where Nate Frazier (16-108) led the rushing attack and the Bulldogs limited the Yellow Jackets to 69 rushing yards. Texas A&M's 27-17 loss to Texas means Georgia will get a chance to win the SEC championship for the third time in four years under Kirby Smart.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementNo. 3 Indiana (12-0, 9-0; Big Ten at-large)
Indiana completed a perfect regular season under second-year coach Curt Cignetti in a 56-3 blowout against Purdue. Fernando Mendoza (8 of 15, 117 yards, 2 TDs) took a back-seat to a rushing attack that compiled 355 yards on 9.6 yards per carry. Roman Hemby (12-152, TD) led the onslaught. The Hoosiers are in the Big Ten championship game for the first time in school history.
No. 4 Texas Tech (11-1, 8-1; Big 12 champion)
The Red Raiders capped their regular season with a 49-0 victory against West Virginia. Texas Tech advances to the Big 12 championship game in a rematch against BYU, and the Red Raiders would be a strong at-large candidate even with a loss. Behren Morton (25 of 32, 310 yards, 3 TDs) helped Texas Tech out-gain the Mountaineers 572-180. The Red Raiders beat the Cougars 29-7 on Nov. 8.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementProjected College Football Playoff first-round matchups
A look at Sporting News projected first-round College Football Playoff matchups heading into conference championship week:
No. 12 Tulane (10-2, 7-1; American champion) at No. 5 Oregon (11-1, 7-1; Big Ten at-large)
The Ducks beat Washington 26-14 to give the Big Ten a third lock in the College Football Playoff. Quarterback Dante Moore (20 of 29, 286 yards, TD) threw just one interception in the Ducks' last four games, and the Ducks limited the Huskies to 283 total yards. That should be enough to host a home game at Autzen Stadium. Tulane beat Charlotte 27-0 to clinch a matchup with North Texas (11-1) in the American Conference championship game – and the winner will likely get an automatic CFP berth. The Green Wave limited the 49ers to 140 total yards and minus-3 yards rushing. Will Jon Sumrall decide to stay with the Green Wave instead of Florida? Mean Green coach Eric Morris already made that decision by taking the Oklahoma State job.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementNo. 11 Virginia (10-2, 7-1; ACC champion) at No. 6 Texas A&M (11-1, 7-1; SEC at-large)
The Aggies lost to Texas, which kept Texas A&M out of the SEC championship game. Marcel Reed was 20 of 32, for 180 yards and threw 2 INTs. The Aggies were outscored 24-7 in the second half, and a weak strength of schedule in the SEC will likely knock Texas A&M into this seeding range. Virginia limited the Hokies to just six first downs, and the Cavaliers can complete a dream season under Tony Elliott – the program's first conference championship since 1995.
No. 10 Alabama (10-2, 7-1; SEC at-large) at No. 7 Ole Miss (11-1, 7-1; SEC at-large)
Ole Miss beat Mississippi State 38-19, and Trinidad Chambliss (23 of 34, 354 yards, 4 TDs) had a monster game to clinch a third straight Egg Bowl victory. With or without Lane Kiffin, the Rebels should be in line to host a first-round playoff game. Alabama edged Auburn 27-20 in a hotly contested Iron Bowl which the Tigers rallied from a 17-0 deficit before Ty Simpson threw the game-winning TD pass to Isaiah Horton (5-35, 3 TDs) with 3:50 remaining. Would a three-loss Alabama team be left out of the CFP if they lose to Georgia in the SEC championship? We don't think so.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementNo. 9 Notre Dame (10-2, Independent at-large) at No. 8 Oklahoma (10-2, 6-2; SEC at-large)
John Mateer (23 of 38, 318 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs) saved the Sooners' CFP hopes with a 58-yard TD pass to Isaiah Sategna with 4:16 remaining to pull out a 17-13 victory against LSU. That should be enough to get Oklahoma in the field under coach Brent Venables. The only question is whether Oklahoma will get a home game in the first round. Notre Dame bludgeoned Stanford 49-20 and gave the committee no reason to drop it below the top 10. Alabama might leap-frog the Irish to build the drama with the Hurricanes, but we still think Notre Dame gets a spot. Miami being locked out of the ACC championship game could be an indirect justification.
Projected College Football Playoff bubble teams
Miami (10-2, 6-2)
Miami did its part to prolong the Notre Dame debate with a 38-7 victory at Pitt that clinched back-to-back 10-win seasons for Mario Cristobal. Carson Beck (23 of 29, 267 yards, 3 TDs, INT) stayed on point, and Rueben Bain led the Hurricanes' defense with 1.5 sacks. The Hurricanes beat the Irish 27-24 on Aug. 31.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementBYU (11-1, 8-1)
BYU advanced to the Big 12 championship game after a 41-21 victory against UCF. Bear Bachmeier (21 of 25, 289 yards, TD) settled in after the Cougars fell behind 14-0 in the first quarter, and LJ Martin (22-95, 3 TDs) added a strong game on the ground. The Knights managed 44 rushing yards. The Cougars' playoff path is clear in a rematch against Texas Tech. BYU is in with a win.
Vanderbilt (10-2, 6-2)
The Commodores capped a historic season with a 45-24 victory against Tennessee. Diego Pavia (18 of 28, 268 yards, TD, 2 INTs) had 20 carries for 165 yards and a TD in a performance that should at least get him to New York as a Heisman finalist. Vanderbilt has averaged 577 yards and 45 points in its last three games against Auburn, Kentucky and Tennessee. The Commodores will be considered, but squeezing a sixth SEC team into the field is too tough.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementMORE: Diego Pavia's brother arrested after win in Knoxville
Texas (9-3, 6-2)
Texas brings the most compelling case as a three-loss team, and Longhorns coach Steve Sarkisian made his pitch after a 27-17 victory against Texas A&M. Arch Manning (14 of 29, 179 yards, TD) and Quintrevion Wisner (19-155) led a huge second-half effort against the Aggies. A 29-21 loss to Florida on Oct. 4 is the reason why Texas will be left out.
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