Oscars 2026 prediction custom image with One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Wicked: For Good, KPop Demon Hunters, Sinners, and Marty Supreme
By
Cooper Hood
Updated
29 minutes ago
Cooper Hood is the Associate Editor for all new movie releases, in theaters and on streaming. In addition to writing articles about these titles and upcoming releases, he also oversees content planning for each, ensuring that ScreenRant continues to cover major releases for months after their release.
He has written various reviews for ScreenRant that appear on Rotten Tomatoes, coordinated Oscars and San Diego Comic-Con coverage, appeared on CNN to talk about Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning, and done select interviews with talent over the years.
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Welcome to ScreenRant's hub for the Oscars 2026 and predictions in all the categories. While we've got individual prediction pieces for some of the biggest categories, there are 24 different awards that will be handed out at the 98th Academy Awards when they happen on March 15, 2026.
All the usual categories are back, but there is also a new one: Best Casting, which recognizes the casting director of the nominated film. While the Academy has confirmed that a Best Stunt category is coming, it won't take effect until the 100th ceremony. This gives us 24 categories to sort through and predict this award season.
Key Oscars 2026 Dates:
- Oscars shortlists announcement: December 16, 2025
- Oscars nominations voting period: January 12-16, 2026
- Oscars nominations announcement: January 22, 2026
- Final voting period: February 26–March 5, 2026
- 98th Academy Awards: March 15, 2026
Leading up to the official Oscar nominations, here are my predictions for what movies will be nominated in each category, and what will be the victor. Keep checking back, as I will be updating this as the Oscars season continues to unfold.
Oscars 2026 Predictions Leaderboard
Movie
Predicted # Of Nominations
Predicted # Of Wins
Sinners
13
5
Hamnet
11
3
One Battle After Another
11
2
Wicked: For Good
9
2
Marty Supreme
8
1
Sentimental Value
7
2
Frankenstein
7
2
Avatar: Fire and Ash
5
1
Commentary and predictions updated on November 28
Best Picture
Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal stand in Hamnet
The 10 nominees for Best Picture are still very much in flux, but a few titles are firmly positioned as contenders. Hamnet, One Battle After Another, and Sinners remain the top three, with Marty Supreme moving ahead of Sentimental Value in the top five as buzz from its premieres and screenings keeps picking up
Rank
Movie
Release Date
Distributor
1)
Hamnet
December 12, 2025
Focus Features
2)
One Battle After Another
September 26, 2025
Warner Bros.
3)
Sinners
April 18, 2025
Warner Bros.
4)
Marty Supreme
December 25, 2025
A24
5)
Sentimental Value
November 7, 2025
Neon
6)
Frankenstein
November 7, 2025
Netflix
7)
It Was Just an Accident
October 15, 2025
Neon
8)
Wicked: For Good
November 21, 2025
Universal Pictures
9)
Avatar: Fire and Ash
December 19, 2025
20th Century Studios
10)
Train Dreams
November 21, 2025
Netflix
The latest changes are all placement-related, as no new movies were moved into the top 10 with the last update. Marty Supreme, Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident, and Avatar: Fire and Ash all moved up one spot, while Train Dreams dropped one spot, and Wicked: For Good slid two spots following its less feverish reception.
Currently, Hamnet is my predicted winner in this category. One Battle After Another is neck and neck with Chloé Zhao's movie, it seems, but there's a lot of room for Sentimental Value, Marty Supreme, and others to make a run at winning depending on how various precursors play out.
ScreenRant's full analysis for the Best Picture category: Oscars 2026 Best Picture Predictions: Nominees & Winner
Best Director
Warner Bros. / Courtesy Everett Collection
Best Director is another tight and highly competitive race early on. Paul Thomas Anderson, Chloé Zhao, and Ryan Coogler have been tipped as contenders for a while, and it would be a real surprise if any of them missed out on a nomination this year.
Rank
Director
Movie
1)
Paul Thomas Anderson
One Battle After Another
2)
Chloé Zhao
Hamnet
3)
Ryan Coogler
Sinners
4)
Josh Safdie
Marty Supreme
5)
Jafar Panahi
It Was Just An Accident
There were no changes made to the ranking of these contenders in the latest update. Though if someone is bound to play spoiler and emerge in this group, Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein) and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) are best positioned to do so.
My prediction at the moment is for PTA to win the Best Director Oscar, which would be the first of his career. Whether he can hold onto that spot for the rest of the season or lose ground to a current predicted nominee.
ScreenRant's full analysis for the Best Director category: Oscars 2026 Best Director Predictions: Nominees & Winner
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley as Agnes Shakespeare in Hamnet
Competition is fierce for Best Actress, with two-time winner Emma Stone looming as a major contender. There's a strong sense she'll be nominated, even if Jessie Buckley appears to be the frontrunner to win at the moment.
Rank
Actress
Movie
1)
Jessie Buckley
Hamnet
2)
Renate Reinsve
Sentimental Value
3)
Amanda Seyfried
The Testament of Ann Lee
4)
Emma Stone
Bugonia
5)
Cynthia Erivo
Wicked: For Good
The biggest change to this category comes with Amanda Seyfried, who rises two spots. That pushed Emma Stone and Cynthia Erivo down a spot apiece. The Testament of Ann Lee may be too unusual to get into consideration elsewhere, but Seyfried's Gotham and Astra nominations show she's got plenty of people in her corner.
This category could still change a lot in the months to come. Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another) and Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) have a good amount of support, as do Jennifer Lawrence (Die, My Love), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs, I'd Kick You), and Tessa Thompson (Hedda).
ScreenRant's full analysis for the Best Actress category: Oscars 2026 Best Actress Predictions: Nominees & Winner
Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet in Marty Supreme
Best Actor looks to be a stacked category, featuring former winners, Hollywood rising stars, and more. Leonardo DiCaprio is viewed as a major contender to win his second Academy Award, while Michael B. Jordan is becoming a safer bet to get recognized too.
Rank
Actor
Movie
1)
Timothée Chalamet
Marty Supreme
2)
Leonardo DiCaprio
One Battle After Another
3)
Wagner Moura
The Secret Agent
4)
Michael B. Jordan
Sinners
5)
Ethan Hawke
Blue Moon
Yet, Timothée Chalamet is the predicted winner currently. He's earned career-best praise from Marty Surpeme's first reactions. After challenging Adrien Brody for the win last year with his A Complete Unknown performance, this could be the movie that makes him an Academy Award winner.
For this update, Jordan's position strengthens as Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) falls one spot after a surprise miss from the Astra Film Awards nominations. This could leave room for Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere), and others to get nominated over him.
ScreenRant's full analysis for the Best Actor category: Oscars 2026 Best Actor Predictions: Nominees & Winner
Best Supporting Actress
Glinda (Ariana Grande) smiling in Wicked: For Good
Ariana Grande was a popular pick last year in the category after dazzling viewers with her performance as Glinda. Even though she lost to Zoe Saldaña, Grande is positioned as a frontrunner to win in 2026 thanks to Wicked: For Good.
Rank
Actress
Movie
1)
Ariana Grande
Wicked: For Good
2)
Teyana Taylor
One Battle After Another
3)
Elle Fanning
Sentimental Value
4)
Gwyneth Paltrow
Marty Supreme
5)
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
Sentimental Value
The question for her is whether she can stay in this spot after the sequel's response. There's more room than ever for Teyana Taylor to take home the win, especially if she's One Battle After Another's sole nominee in this category, as I'm now predicting - with Regina Hall falling out.
She's no longer a nominee because I believe Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas will give Sentimental Value two performances in this category. This is shaping up to be a competitive race that various precursor awards will help determine.
ScreenRant's full analysis for the Best Supporting Actress category: Oscars 2026 Best Supporting Actress Predictions: Nominees & Winner
Best Supporting Actor
Stellan Skarsgård in Sentimental Value
Best Supporting Actor could be a wildly tight race that only really takes shape as precursors start. Previous winners and nominees are contending in this category, while performers like Adam Sandler hope to earn a career-first nomination.
Rank
Actor
Movie
1)
Stellan Skarsgård
Sentimental Value
2)
Sean Penn
One Battle After Another
3)
Paul Mescal
Hamnet
4)
Jacob Elordi
Frankenstein
5)
Adam Sandler
Jay Kelly
Stellan Skarsgård also fits into that latter category, and he's my pick to win right now. He turned heads with his performance in Sentimental Value, vaulting him into the award conversation. So long as the movie's general reception is strong and he can hold off challengers like Sean Penn and Paul Mescal, he can win.
Jacob Elordi continues to rise in this race, moving him into fourth in the latest update. Adam Sandler stays in the top five as we wait for Jay Kelly to hit Netflix and really shape its awards season status.
ScreenRant's full analysis for the Best Supporting Actor category: Oscars 2026 Best Supporting Actor Predictions: Nominees & Winner
Best Casting
Three characters from Sinners in the car
In the debut of the Best Casting category, there are plenty of movies and their casting directors who deserve to be among the first group of nominees. This is especially true of large ensemble films that nailed casting across the board.
Rank
Movie
Casting Director
1)
Sinners
Francine Maisler
2)
One Battle After Another
Cassandra Kulukundis
3)
Hamnet
Nina Gold
4)
Marty Supreme
Jennifer Venditti
5)
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Bret Howe and Mary Vernieu
I'm choosing Francine Maisler to win the category for Sinners. There's not a bad selection in the ensemble cast. And while this award goes to the casting director, a win would be a great way to recognize the movie's talented cast as a whole.
For this update, I'm keeping everything where it was previously. Wicked: For Good and Jay Kelly lurk as other contenders who could earn nominations, though.
Best Original Screenplay
Michael B. Jordan as Smoke in Sinners ending
Original Screenplay has plenty of contenders, but Ryan Coogler's script for Sinners appears to be in pole position. The brilliant writing, characterizations, and sharp dialogue have stuck with viewers, making this one way that the movie could became an Oscar winner.
Rank
Movie
Screenwriter
1)
Sinners
Ryan Coogler
2)
Marty Supreme
Josh Safdie
3)
Sentimental Value
Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
4)
Jay Kelly
Noah Baumbach and Emily Mortimer
5)
It Was Just An Accident
Jafar Panahi
Lurking in this race are the screenplays for Sentimental Value and Marty Supreme. Joachim Trier is a prior nominee for The Worst Person in the World, while Josh Safdie has earned acclaim elsewhere for prior works. Meanwhile, Baumbach has three screenplay nominations across both categories, making him a threat here once more.
I've swapped Marty Supreme and Sentimental Value's placements in this update, as Safdie's movie continues to gain steam.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Jessie Buckley as Agnes in Hamnet
Winning one of the screenplay categories is often a means to support a Best Picture win, as it's happened 62 times previously. Adapted Screenplay accounts for 40 of those instances, and it could happen again this year with Hamnet and One Battle After Another vying to win.
Rank
Movie
Screenwriter
1)
Hamnet
Maggie O’Farrell and Chloé Zhao
2)
One Battle After Another
Paul Thomas Anderson
3)
Frankenstein
Guillermo del Toro
4)
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Rian Johnson
5)
Train Dreams
Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar
If Hamnet is going to win Best Picture, an Adapted Screenplay win would be a crucial piece of support. You have to go back over 20 years to The Artist to find a movie that won Best Director and either screenplay category but lost Picture to a movie that didn't win the other screenplay category.
For this update, Guillermo del Toro's Frankenstein has joined the race, knocking Bugonia out. Del Toro is a two-time nominee in the Original Screenplay category, but his work adapting Mary Shelley's iconic piece of literature could make him a force in Adapted.
Best Animated Feature
Mira, Rumi, and Zoey wagging their fingers in KPop Demon HuntersNetflix / Courtesy Everett Collection
This is one of the easiest categories to predict right now. The worldwide phenomenon of Netflix's most-watched movie ever has vaulted KPop Demon Hunters to Oscar contender, even beyond the Best Animated Feature category.
Rank
Movie
1)
KPop Demon Hunters
2)
Zootopia 2
3)
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
4)
Arco
5)
In Your Dreams
This is certainly KPop Demon Hunters' category to lose. Disney will make a run to try and end its cold streak in a category it used to dominate with Zootopia 2, while international animated movies in Little Amélie or the Character of Rain and Arco hope to follow in Flow's footsteps.
While no changes have been made to the standing of this category, the incredible reviews for Zootopia 2 do suggest that KPop Demon Hunters' win will not be easy going. The power of Disney will look to unseat the year's animated phenomenon.
Best International Feature Film
Best International Feature Film still has some time to take shape, but there are already several major contenders from various countries. At the top of the list is Norway's submission, Sentimental Value, which is arguably the international film with the best chance to be in the Best Picture race.
Rank
Movie
Country
1)
Sentimental Value
Norway
2)
It Was Just an Accident
France
3)
No Other Choice
South Korea
4)
The Secret Agent
Brazil
5)
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Tunisia
Historically, an international movie also getting a Best Picture nomination leads to a win here. Emilia Pérez became the first international Best Picture nominee ever not to win Best International Feature, as fellow Picture nominee I'm Still Here won.
For this update, No Other Choice and The Secret Agent swap places, as Park Chan-wook's movie is starting to make some more noise.
Best Original Song
The girl group Hunterx posing in Kpop Demon Hunters
In the midst of Wicked's success last year, it seemed inevitable that Wicked: For Good would win Best Original Song at the Oscars 2026 thanks to its new ballads for Elphaba ("No Place Like Home") and Glinda ("The Girl In The Bubble"). But now, that's a lot less certain.
Rank
Movie
Song
1)
KPop Demon Hunters
"Golden"
2)
Sinners
"I Lied To You"
3)
Diane Warren: Relentless
"Dear Me"
4)
Wicked: For Good
"The Girl In The Bubble"
5)
Avatar: Fire and Ash
"Dream as One"
It's hard not to pick "Golden" as the winner of this category right now. This could all change in a month once Wicked: For Good comes out and its original songs catch fire. But, KPop Demon Hunters has one of the songs of the year. While the franchise's future could allow more chances in the future, there's no guarantee anything else will hit as big as "Golden."
Surprisingly, Wicked: For Good loses one of its nominations in this update, as "No Place Like Home" drops out of the prediction. The original songs weren't quite as spectacular as most imagined, weakening their position in this race. There's even a world where both songs miss, which would've seemed unthinkable a few weeks ago.
Rising into the top 5 as a result is Diane Warren's new song, "Dear Me." She's been nominated in the category 16 times but has never won. That level of prestige makes the chances of another nomination more likely, even if she'll likely fail to win the trophy once more.
Best Original Score
Miles Caton as Sammie singing in Sinners
Composers have brought their A-game once again this year, positioning the Original Score category as a highly competitive one. One Battle After Another's piano-heavy score by Johnny Greenwood has caught on, while Ludwig Göransson's work on Sinners remains memorable.
Rank
Movie
Composer
1)
Sinners
Ludwig Göransson
2)
One Battle After Another
Johnny Greenwood
3)
Hamnet
Max Richter
4)
Marty Supreme
Daniel Lopatin
5)
Jay Kelly
Nicholas Britell
Göransson is already a multi-time Oscar winner in this category thanks to Black Panther and Oppenheimer, so he's looking to win his third in as many nominations. That would further cement him as one of Hollywood's greatest modern composers.
This category hasn't changed in this update, but it could in the next if Alexandre Desplat (Frankenstein), Hildur Guðnadóttir (Hedda), or others gain support.
Best Sound
Great sound can really elevate a movie, as the sound design and mixing (which used to be two separate categories at the Oscars) shape how audiences experience what they're hearing. There are terrific examples of this at work in 2025's best movies, with Sinners a premium example.
Rank
Movie
1)
Sinners
2)
Avatar: Fire and Ash
3)
Wicked: For Good
4)
One Battle After Another
5)
F1: The Movie
While I'm going with this movie to win, blockbusters like Wicked: For Good and Avatar: Fire and Ash have a strong history in the category. The same is true for racing movies like F1, with similar films having won in the last decade.
The winner has changed in this update, with Sinners surplanting One Battle After Another, as it slides to fourth. With the movie likely to secure victories elsewhere, this could become a category where voters look to recognize something else.
Best Visual Effects
If there's a new Avatar movie out in theaters, odds are it will be an Oscar contender, especially in Best Visual Effects. James Cameron's last two movies won the category with relative ease, and there shouldn't be much that really challenges Avatar: Fire and Ash.
Rank
Movie
1)
Avatar: Fire and Ash
2)
Wicked: For Good
3)
F1: The Movie
4)
Superman
5)
Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning
With the threequel adding new locations and characters, upping the scale, and doing more with fire, there are plenty of opportunities for Fire and Ash to impress visually. That makes this pick a confident one, even before anyone sees the movie.
No changes have been made to this category in this round of predictions.
Best Film Editing
Leonardo DiCaprio drives a car in One Battle After AnotherWarner Bros. / Courtesy Everett Collection
Film editing could come down to two of the year's longest movies, as their pacing makes them fly by. This is certainly the case with One Battle After Another, which breezes through its 2-hour and 50-minute runtime. Reactions to Marty Supreme's two-and-a-half-hour story also praised how quickly it goes by, in a good way.
Rank
Movie
1)
One Battle After Another
2)
Marty Supreme
3)
Sinners
4)
F1: The Movie
5)
Hamnet
Other contenders in this category could come from various Best Picture nominees. The majority of Best Picture winners are nominated in this category, which is why Hamnet slides into this prediction. If it becomes a bigger powerhouse, then a win could come here too.
A House of Dynamite has fallen out of this race in this update, with F1: The Movie jumping in and even going ahead of Hamnet.
Best Cinematography
Smoke and Stack watching the sunset in Sinners.
There are plenty of beautiful-looking films that have already come out, and many more are still to come based on reviews and trailers. Continuing its strong performance in below-the-line categories, Sinners is the presumed favorite here for now.
Rank
Movie
Cinematographer
1)
Sinners
Autumn Durald Arkapaw
2)
Hamnet
Łukasz Żal
3)
One Battle After Another
Michael Bauman
4)
Train Dreams
Adolpho Veloso
5)
Frankenstein
Dan Laustsen
Autumn Durald Arkapaw winning this category would be a notable outcome. She'd become the fifth female cinematographer to get a nomination, but she'd be the first to win. Arkapaw has major competition to hold off if she's going to make history.
The biggest change to this category is Marty Supreme falling out, with Frankenstein taking its place.
Best Production Design
Wicked took home the win in Production Design last year, and while the sequel looked primed to repeat that success, that's no longer what I'm predicting.
Rank
Movie
1)
Frankenstein
2)
Hamnet
3)
Wicked: For Good
4)
Sinners
5)
Avatar: Fire and Ash
The gothic horror appearance featured throughout Frankenstein makes it really stand out. The sets are immaculate, with the ship, workshop, and more having an incredible level of detail that voters can appreciate.
Wicked: For Good slides two spots in this update, with Frankenstein leapfrogging Hamnet for first place in the process.
Best Costume Design
Glinda (Ariana Grande) walking down the aisle surrounded by yellow butterflies in Wicked: For Good
Wicked's win in Costume Design could carry over to more success for Wicked: For Good. Elphaba, Glinda, Fiyero, and others have new costumes, with the appearance of Dorothy, Scarecrow, and Tin Man also presenting new opportunities for the costume department to shine.
Rank
Movie
1)
Wicked: For Good
2)
Sinners
3)
Frankenstein
4)
Hamnet
5)
The Testament of Ann Lee
The fantastical, Ozian costumes of Wicked: For Good are unique among this year's race. Any number of period-set films could emerge throughout award season, with Marty Supreme and Hedda among the other titles hoping for a nomination.
There are no updates here, even if Wicked: For Good's lower status overall does make it more vulnerable to win this category.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Frankenstein remains the pick to win this category in this update. It's in a strong position to hold off Wicked: For Good and The Smashing Machine, especially as more about the makeup and hairstyling process is revealed.
Rank
Movie
1)
Frankenstein
2)
Wicked: For Good
3)
The Smashing Machine
4)
Sinners
5)
28 Years Later
The fifth spot here is certainly up for grabs, with Weapons, Kiss of the Spider Woman, and more hoping to get in. For now, I've gone with 28 Years Later.
Best Documentary Feature
Best Documentary still has a lot to sort through, with the shortlist announcement in December providing a much clearer picture of this race. As of today, Geeta Gandbhir's The Perfect Neighbor appears to be at the front of the pack after a Sundance premiere and acquisition by Netflix, where it's already streaming and shocking audiences.
Rank
Movie
1)
The Perfect Neighbor
2)
2000 Meters to Andriivka
3)
The Alabama Solution
4)
Sly Lives! (aka the Burden of Black Genius)
5)
Apocalypse in the Tropics
Elsewhere, 2000 Meters to Andriivka lurks as a big contender. It comes from director Mstyslav Chernov, who previously won the category two years ago for 20 Days in Mariupol. Those are the two nominees I feel most confident in, as the rest could change dramatically in the months ahead.
There's been no change made in this update.
Best Documentary Short Subject
Oscars poster with statue
Coming in December
Best Animated Short Film
An Oscar statuette in front of a swirly orange backgroundCustom image by Debanjana Chowdhury
Coming in December
Best Live-Action Short Film
Three Oscars statues against a dark backgroundCustom image by Debanjana Chowdhury
Coming in December
Oscars
8/10
Location
Los Angeles, CA
Dates
March 15, 2026
Network
ABC
Website
https://www.oscars.org/
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Where is Thunderbolts? The soundtrack was amazing and it was the best movie I’ve seen all year
2025-10-31 21:25:43 Upvote 1 Downvote Reply CopyNah man Ryan coogler should win that best director oscar
2025-10-12 05:23:39 Upvote 1 Downvote Reply CopyNe zha 2 deserves to win best animated feature.
2025-11-04 09:41:34 Upvote Downvote Reply 1 Copy