Miami vs Pittsburgh Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today — College Football Week 14

Miami and Pitt meet in the final week of the college football season, and both teams have plenty riding on the outcome.

The Hurricanes must win to stay in any realistic CFP discussion, while the Panthers need a victory and some outside help — an SMU or Virginia loss — to clinch a spot in the ACC title game.

I break it down in my Miami vs. Pittsburgh predictions and college football picks for Saturday, November 29.

Miami vs Pittsburgh prediction

Miami vs Pittsburgh best bet: Girard Pringle Under 47.5 rushing yards (-110)

You can make the argument that freshman Girard Pringle has passed up Mark Fletcher in the Miami Hurricanes depth chart.

If his carries are any indication, that would certainly be the case. Over the last two weeks, Pringle has gotten more carries (37) than in any of the previous weeks combined (17). All that said, this feels like a good spot to sell high on him against a vaunted Pittsburgh Panthers rushing defense.

Even though he had a breakout game of sorts against NC State with 117 rushing yards, it comes with a few massive caveats. Most importantly, the Wolfpack defense has been an atrocious unit all season.

Secondly, despite this breakout, Pringle only has a rush success rate of 29% on the season, pointing to just how ineffective he’s been. I don’t see him having much success here.

This Pitt rush defense is a legitimately elite group that ranks eighth in EPA/rush allowed and third in rush success rate allowed (33.8%).

The game script plays a part here as well. If Miami’s strong passing efficiency (Top-10 in EPA/pass and pass success rate) attacks Pitt’s weaker pass defense, the Canes are more likely to move the ball through the air.

For him to clear 47.5, you’re essentially betting on a long run against one of the best rush defenses on the schedule. That’s a low-probability outcome, especially with a role that is still unassured.

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Miami vs Pittsburgh same-game parlay

Miami turns to the air for multiple reasons, but the biggest is that it’s the easiest way to attack a stingy Panthers defense. I’ll pair this with the Under as well. My projection (49.2) was nearly exactly on market, but this non-correlated price boost is too much to pass up.

Miami vs Pittsburgh SGP

• Girard Pringle Under 47.5 rushing yards

• Carson Beck Over 274.5 passing yards

• Under 49.5

Our deep-ball SGP: Miami to the air

The Miami pass rush and secondary, which rank 16th nationally in EPA allowed per dropback, make a fade of a young quarterback like Mason Heintschel enticing. We’ll see limited volume, especially in the red zone, so I'm taking the Under on his passing touchdowns.

I paired this with Malachi Toney to go over his receiving yards. He’s the best playmaker on the field, and he’ll have one of the friendliest matchups of almost any player.

Miami vs Pittsburgh SGP

• Girard Pringle Under 47.5 rushing yards

• Carson Beck Over 274.5 passing yards

• Under 49.5

• Mason Heintschel Under 1.5 passing touchdowns

• Malachi Toney Over 72.5 receiving yards

Miami vs Pittsburgh game predictions

Miami vs Pittsburgh moneyline prediction

I think Miami will win this game outright due to its superior passing attack.

Miami vs Pittsburgh spread prediction

A touchdown is too rich here in what I expect to be a low-scoring contest, so I'll go with the Panthers to grab a cover.

Miami vs Pittsburgh Over/Under prediction

I lean towards the Under here as I noted in my same-game parlay. It's not a strong lean, but both defenses can create havoc in the backfield and get the opposing offense out of rhythm.

Miami vs Pittsburgh odds

• Spread: Miami -6.5 (-120) | Pittsburgh +6.5 (-102)

• Moneyline: Miami -245 | Pittsburgh +200

• Over/Under: Over 49.5 (-115) | Under 49.5 (-105)

Miami vs Pittsburgh trend to know

Miami (FL) has hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+6.90 Units / 5% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Miami vs Pittsburgh.

How to watch Miami vs Pittsburgh

Location

Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA

Date

Saturday, November 29, 2025

Kickoff

12:00 p.m. ET

TV

ABC

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