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Mountain West Championship Game scenarios hinge on UNLV, computer rankings

2025-11-29 13:00
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Mountain West Championship Game scenarios hinge on UNLV, computer rankings

One result on Friday could’ve made the 2025 Mountain West Championship Game scenario relatively straightforward, but when the San Diego State Aztecs lost in double-overtime at the New Mexico Lobos, it...

Mountain West Championship Game scenarios hinge on UNLV, computer rankingsStory bySan Diego State Head Coach Sean Lewis calls timeout during an NCAA Football game between San Jose State and San Diego State, Saturday November 22, 2025 in San Diego, Calif.San Diego State Head Coach Sean Lewis calls timeout during an NCAA Football game between San Jose State and San Diego State, Saturday November 22, 2025 in San Diego, Calif.Eric EvelhochSat, November 29, 2025 at 1:00 PM UTC·3 min read

One result on Friday could’ve made the 2025 Mountain West Championship Game scenario relatively straightforward, but when the San Diego State Aztecs lost in double-overtime at the New Mexico Lobos, it opened the door for chaos and calculations.

The Aztecs (9-3, 6-2), Lobos (9-3, 6-2) and Boise State Broncos (8-4, 6-2) — who rallied to win at Utah State 25-24 — will all be ranked based on a composite of selected predictive and results-based computer metrics. Since no Mountain West team was ranked in the Nov. 25 College Football Playoff Selection Committee rankings, information from Connelly SP+, ESPN SOR, KPI, and SportSource will determine the title game competitors.

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Depending on whether UNLV can keep the Fremont Cannon for the fourth straight season, they can also earn a spot for consideration. The Rebels (9-2, 5-2) take on the Nevada Wolf Pack (3-8, 2-5) at Mackay Stadium at 6 p.m. and with a win will be figured into the metric rankings. Since all four of the teams did not play each other, the composite averages will be announced on Sunday morning with the head-to-head result determining home field.

UNLV Rebels HC Dan Mullen seen prior to a college football game against the Air Force Falcons on Saturday October 11, 2025, in Las Vegas, Nevada. UNLV Rebels HC Dan Mullen seen prior to a college football game against the Air Force Falcons on Saturday October 11, 2025, in Las Vegas, Nevada.

RJ Forbus - The Sporting Tribune

UNLV Rebels HC Dan Mullen seen prior to a college football game against the Air Force Falcons on Saturday October 11, 2025, in Las Vegas, Nevada.

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Here’s how the four potential 6-2 in conference teams finished against each other:

San Diego State (1-1)
  • Nov 16: Beat Boise State 17-7 at home - SDSU bullies Boise State in the rain to keep inside track in Mountain West

  • Nov. 28: Lost at New Mexico 23-17 (2OT) - Championship clinch chance slips away agonizingly in SDSU loss at New Mexico

UNLV (0-2)
  • Oct. 18: Lost at Boise State 56-31 - UNLV learns harsh lessons about itself after 56-31 loss to Boise State

  • Nov. 1: Lost to New Mexico 40-35 at home - UNLV's defensive woes continue in 40-35 loss to New Mexico

Boise State (2-1)
  • Oct. 11: Beat New Mexico 41-25 at home

  • OCt. 18: Beat UNLV 56-31 at home

  • Nov. 15: Lost at San Diego State 17-7

New Mexico (2-1)
  • Oct. 11: Lost at Boise State 41-25

  • Nov. 1: Won at UNLV 40-35

  • Nov. 28: Beat San Diego State 23-17 (2OT) at home

Boise State has beaten UNLV in each of the last two Mountain West Championship Games, winning 21-7 at home in 2024 and taking a 44-20 win at UNLV in 2023. San Diego State last hosted the title game, losing to Utah State 46-13 in Carson, Calif. In 2021. New Mexico has never competed in the championship game.

The Broncos have the most overall championships (five) and title game appearances (eight), and have been in seven of the last eight. San Diego State won back-to-back championship games in 2015 and 2016 in their only other title game appearances. UNLV is looking for their first Mountain West championship, with the past two seasons being their only title game appearances.

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