Frederick: History suggests Max Brosmer’s first NFL start won’t go well. Our eyes say otherwise

Seattle sports the NFL’s fifth-best defense this season by yardage allowed (301 per game) and seventh by points (19.7).

Minnesota is set to roll into Seattle with a struggling offense that has eclipsed the 20-point plateau and thrown for north of 150 yards one time in its last five games.

Now the Vikings are forced to hand the keys over to an undrafted rookie quarterback for his first career start. All signs point to disaster.

So why does it feel like this may just work?

Perhaps it’s the Vikings’ recent history of offensive success. Wins haven’t always followed, but this passing game has delivered high volumes of production largely regardless of who’s been under center up until this season.

The combination of Kevin O’Connell, Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson is a lethal one.

Or maybe this is about Max Brosmer.

An undrafted quarterback who spent the bulk of his collegiate career at the FCS level doesn’t scream instant NFL success.

But this is the same guy who re-introduced the forward pass to P.J. Fleck’s Gophers football program. Who nearly beat a Penn State team that reached last year’s CFP semifinals with little help from his pass protection. Who scored 21 fourth-quarter points against a Michigan defense that concluded its 2024 campaign by dominating Ohio State and Alabama.

The guy who, by season’s end, was routinely posting some of Pro Football Focus’ best passing grades of any college quarterback in the country.

The guy who went into the Vikings’ preseason finale against Tennessee’s starters in August and, surrounded by a bunch of reserves, led a functioning offense, consistently ripping on-time, on-target passes in the face of perilous pressure.

Brosmer went 15 for 23 for 161 yards and a score that evening.

Watch the tape of Brosmer from last year against the Nittany Lions, or this fall against Tennessee, and the number of times he throws his receivers open via his anticipation starts to pile up.

There’s a throw against Penn State where, on third and 10, eventual No. 2 overall draft pick Abdul Carter is in Brosmer’s grill within 2 ticks of the ball being snapped. Brosmer proceeded to fire a dart off his back foot to an empty dot of space between four Penn State defenders. Daniel Jackson arrived at the same time as the ball for a 22-yard gain.

Every time Brosmer has taken snaps, those watching walk away thinking, “That guy knows how to play quarterback.” He just gets it.

The Vikings clearly held the same belief. Which is why they chose to roster Brosmer coming out of the preseason rather than dangling him out on the practice squad, where he could be snatched up by any team with an admiring eye.

Brosmer noted Friday that he prides himself on being “the most prepared guy on the field at all times.” Gophers offensive coordinator Greg Harbaugh has detailed the preparation in advance of last fall’s Penn State game, in which he and Brosmer spent all night noting the opposing blitz packages and how to identify and counteract them.

Back in the spring, O’Connell said Brosmer is “as smart as any young player that I’ve been around.”

Brosmer takes pride in that, noting it “caters to my strengths.”

“I was never the most athletic guy, never the strongest guy. But I felt like I could do it better with my mind on the field,” Brosmer said. “That’s playing NFL quarterback, in my opinion.”

Getting your team into the right play calls and checks with tempo is probably 80% of the battle. Then it’s simply down to execution: Can you trust it, grip it and rip it? Nothing we’ve seen from Brosmer suggests otherwise.

He has routinely shown the ability to make whatever play is necessary to compensate for deficiencies around him and keep the offense moving in a positive direction.

That’s how you play the position.

Generally, when O’Connell has been armed with someone like that, fireworks have ensued. Will that take place Sunday? History involving similar circumstances suggests, “No.”

But everything our eyes have told us over the past 14 months says this might be different. With Max Brosmer, it always has been.