Déjà Vu in the Steel City: Miami Enters Pitt with Everything to Play For – and Everything to Lose

Here we are again. The calendar reads late November, the College Football Playoff picture is messy, and Miami finds itself straddling the thin line between contender and cautionary tale. A win today at Pittsburgh could keep the Canes’ ACC title and playoff dreams alive. But as the “pathematicians” love to remind us, even a victory guarantees nothing. Miami still needs help, scoreboard watching other ACC results and hoping for just the right chaos.

And that’s what makes today feel so familiar. Because we’ve seen this movie before in recent memory – twice. The only two other times Miami had a shot at both a ACC Championship and CFP appearance over the last decade, 2017 and 2024. And they choked both times.

The Ghost of 2017: The Black Friday Collapse

In 2017, Miami rolled into Heinz Field at 10–0, ranked No. 2 in the nation, rocking turnover chains and swagger that felt like the glory days reborn. The only thing standing between the Canes and an undefeated regular season was a 4–7 Pitt team with nothing to lose and a true freshman quarterback named Kenny Pickett. You know the rest. Pickett ran wild, Miami stumbled, and a would-be playoff run ended on the cold turf of Western Pennsylvania. The Canes looked tight, disjointed, and ultimately shell-shocked in a 24-14 loss.

That afternoon became a gut punch that still defines how Miami fans approach games like this one, coincidentally against the same team: road trip, cold weather, season on the line – what could go wrong?

The Ghost of 2024: The Syracuse Stunner

Fast forward seven years later to last year, and the scene looked eerily similar on the final Saturday of the month. Led by Cam Ward, Mario Cristobal, and company, no. 6 Miami entered the regular-season finale 10–1, needing only a win to punch a ticket to the ACC Championship – and a likely playoff spot. Instead, the Canes blew a 21–0 lead and watched Syracuse and quarterback Kyle McCord run out the clock on a 42–38 shocker.

It wasn’t just the loss; it was the déjà vu – the inability to finish, the conservative play-calling, and the haunting realization that the Canes’ – and Cristobal’s – margin for error always seems to shrink when the lights burn brightest. The Orange and their coach Fran Brown celebrated on their home field while Miami went home to wait for help that never came.

2025: History Repeating, or Finally Rewritten?

Which brings us to today. A frigid afternoon in Pittsburgh, an ACC berth somehow still possible after conference losses to Louisville and SMU, and the Canes once again walking that same tightrope ranked 12th in the CFP Rankings. The circumstances mirror 2017 and 2024 in many ways. For one, they are back where they played in 2017 and they face a team that has a similar profile to the 2024 Orangemen. It’s also a scrappy opponent with momentum as they are fresh off a convincing victory over Georgia Tech that ironically helped Miami immensely in the ACC hunt. But their remains that familiar mix of pressure, promise, and paranoia.

The difference? We’ll find out if Miami has learned anything from those scars. Especially Cristobal and the many team veterans who witnessed this firsthand last year in upstate New York. Rueben Bain Jr., Markel Bell, Anez Cooper, Francis Mauigoa, Mark Fletcher Jr., Elija Lofton, Ahmad Moten, Akheem Mesidor, Wesley Bissainthe, OJ Freqerique, Damari Brown, Armando Blount, Justin Scott, Marquise Lightfoot and others were all a part of last year’s roster and will need to play pivotal roles today.

This Pitt team isn’t the pushover of old although they have the same head coach in Pat Narduzzi who has gone 16-6 over the last two season. And they are also playing for a lot. Similar to Pickett in 2017, its another freshman quarterback, Mason Heintschel, who has jumpstarted the offense. The Panthers are ranked again (No. 22) and Acrisure Stadium is not an easy place to play, especially for a warm weather team that will be playing in freezing or below freezing temperature. Pitt can still backdoor its way into Charlotte as the 8-3 Panthers have a 3% chance of making the ACC title game. The Canes, meanwhile, cannot control the complicated math dictating the path to the ACC Championship but they can rewrite the narrative.

The Stakes – and the Shadows of Finale’s Past

A Miami win keeps hope alive. Lose, and it’s another “what if” etched into a decade defined by two other near-misses as the Canes have continued to leave a lot to be desired compared to the historic Miami teams. The cold reality: Miami could win, look great doing it, and still watch someone else celebrate an ACC berth. But that doesn’t make today any smaller. If anything, it makes it more defining. Indeed, these are the games that decide narratives. The kind fans remember years later, connecting dots between eras of heartbreak. 2017’s missed chance. 2024’s meltdown. And now 2025 — a chance to prove those ghosts can at least be somewhat buried (the Louisville and SMU losses remain inexcusable as the Canes should not even be in this position).

So, yeah – Miami might need the “pathematicians” to work overtime again. Like many contenders in the ACC, they cannot control anything outside of their own game, and that is not new. What’s new, and what has to be new, is how the Canes finish, as they likely need to win with conviction in order to impress the CFP Committee enough.

If they want to change the story, it starts here with a revenge as a dish best served cold against Pittsburgh and against history.

Canes 35-21