Rock M Pick ‘Em: Week 14

It’s the final week of the College Football regular season. That means it’s rivalry week. Mizzou closes it out in the Battle Line Rivalry at Arkansas and ESPN’s College Gameday heads to Ann Arbor for Ohio State at Michigan. Plus, plenty of other pivotal SEC games with College Football Playoff hopes on the line. Let’s pick ‘em!

Odds provided by our partners over at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Stava: 31-13

Deck: 22-13

Gustafson: 22-12

Hurst: 22-8

Matejka: 19-11

Missouri Tigers (-2.5) at Arkansas Razorbacks (2:30 p.m. CST on SEC Network)

Sammy Stava: Mizzou is the better team on paper, and they should be highly motivated after the Drinkwitz contract extension. Razorbacks will make this interesting, but the Tigers pull away with a 35-24 win.

True Deck: I know a dominated rivalry when I see one. Give me the Tigers to win and cover, 36-14.

Matthew Gustafson: It’s not really Mizzou’s style to win in blowouts, though they have before, and Arkansas has been known as a pesky team this year. The Razorbacks may frustrate the Tigers early on, as they’ve been able to stop some really good running backs throughout the season, but Mizzou should eventually find its stride on offense. Eli Drinkwitz wins his first game after signing an extension, 34-27.

Nathan Hurst: Mizzou does one thing well on offense and that is run the ball down the throats of bad defenses. Arkansas does one thing well and that is lose every game by one score. I think both of these things will happen this week as the Tigers take home the Battle Line Trophy once again, 38-34.

Josh Matejka: If Mizzou can run the ball, they can score points. If they can score points, they can win games. And with a Drinkwitz extension announced, they should have enough lift to propel them past a tricky Arkansas team on the road. Mizzou 35, Arkansas 27.

No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes (-10.5) at No. 15 Michigan Wolverines (11:00 a.m. CST on FOX)

Sammy Stava: This will be a fun one. That’s what rivalries are for, and this is the best rivalry in College Football. With Michigan playing for their CFP hopes this will be a close game but Ohio State is just too talented. 24-20, Buckeyes.

True Deck: I think Bryce Underwood is solid, but I don’t know if he is going to be able to handle the Ohio State defense. I think that Julian Sayin, on the other hand, will be able to take care of Michigan’s defense. I’ll take the Buckeyes to win by a lot, 42-10.

Matthew Gustafson: Ohio State won’t fall to the Wolverines again…. I think. It would certainly make an already messy playoff picture an absolute disaster if Michigan wins. But I’m expecting the Buckeyes to finally take home the victory, 34-21.

Nathan Hurst: Ohio State has to win one of these eventually, right? I think this year is the time they finally break the streak and do so in commanding fashion. They appear to be far and away the best team in the country right now and I think they get some serious payback for recent losses to Michigan. Buckeyes win in a blowout, 45-17.

Josh Matejka: Ohio State’s 2024 season had but one major blemish and that was losing in The Game to a decidedly mediocre Michigan team. That will still be sitting in their minds as they put the Wolverines to the sword. Ohio State 38, Michigan 14.

No. 14 Vanderbilt Commodores at No. 19 Tennessee Volunteers (-2.5) (2:30 p.m. CST on ESPN)

Sammy Stava: Tennessee ruins Vanderbilt’s CFP hopes here. I would take Vandy if this game was in Nashville, but the Vols get the home-field advantage in Knoxville as Neyland is such a tough place to play. 31-27 Volunteers.

True Deck: I continue to lose my picks on the Commodores but I guess it is finally time to say that Vanderbilt is a seriously solid team. I think they’ll end Tennessee’s hopes and bolster their resume. Give me the Commodores to win and cover, 28-21.

Matthew Gustafson: This game is going to mean a lot for both teams… though it likely won’t matter much in the end. Both teams will be motivated, and Neyland can be an incredibly tough place to win if you’re not wearing gaudy orange. But I’ve been more convinced by Vanderbilt this season, and in close games, I’m going to take Diego Pavia — especially in what will (probably) be his final regular season game. Give me the Commodores, 38-35.

Nathan Hurst: Somehow, after being one of the top stories in the country most of the season, Vanderbilt has fallen off the national radar despite being 9-2. They are coming off a blowout win of Kentucky where their offense looked the best it has all season and they are playing a pretty bad Tennessee defense. I think this one will be close, as it’s in Knoxville, but I think Vandy gets the job done 38-34 and makes it impossible for the committee to keep them out of the playoffs.

Josh Matejka: I’m a hater. I still think back to Mizzou’s game against Vanderbilt and remain convinced that they’d have won if one of the Commodore defenders didn’t try to take Beau Pribula’s foot clean off his leg. But while I don’t think the ‘Dores are truly at the level of other playoff contenders, I do think they’re better than Tennessee. But this one is in Knoxville… it’s a tough call. I’ll try some jinx magic and go Vandy 37, Tennessee 30.

LSU Tigers at No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners (-10.5) (2:30 p.m. CST on ABC)

Sammy Stava: Oklahoma gets it done at home and punches their ticket to the CFP with their elite defense. 21-13, OU.

True Deck: Oklahoma’s defense proved how strong they are against the Tigers and I don’t really see LSU’s offense being much stronger. I also think Mateer will have a strong performance, pushing Oklahoma to a blowout win. 35-14.

Matthew Gustafson: After seeing this team in person, it’s clear the Sooners are legit. And even if they weren’t, I wouldn’t pick this year’s LSU team to beat them when the game matters way more to Oklahoma. The Sooners essentially clinch a CFP spot with a 27-17 win.

Nathan Hurst: This game might be an even grosser watch for neutral fans than the Mizzou game against OU was last week. LSU has a worse defense and a worse offense than Mizzou and Oklahoma is close enough to taste a playoff bid. I think the Sooners win 24-10 but it feels like even more than that.

Josh Matejka: Won’t be watching this game as it’s going to be miserable for a neutral. But Oklahoma’s defense is the real deal, and they’ll handle the Tigers pretty easily. Let’s say Sooners win 24-13.

No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide (-5.5) at Auburn Tigers (6:30 p.m. CST on ABC)

Sammy Stava: No matter what, the Iron Bowl is always tough to predict. A night game at Jordan Hare will cause problems for Alabama but Ty Simpson will lead them to a win here. 35-31, Tide.

True Deck: As much as I think Bama is the better team here, I love the rivalry and think it means so much more than the players on the field. I see this one coming down to the wire with Alabama likely leading most of the game. I’ll take the Tigers to pull off the big upset at Jordan Hare, 27-24.

Matthew Gustafson: The Iron Bowl…. at Jordan-Hare…. at night…. and Auburn has an opportunity to knock their forever rivals out of the playoff. Yeesh. This one’s going to be as uncomfortable as it gets for Alabama — but the Tide find a way to survive anyway. Give me Bama, 31-27.

Nathan Hurst: I don’t think I’ve ever in my life correctly picked an Alabama-Auburn game by the spread. Thankfully I don’t have to do that here because I know I’d do it wrong. This should be a really fun game full of drama. So… a normal Iron Bowl. Ultimately, I’ll take Alabama to win because they have more to play for: 24-20.

Josh Matejka: Iron Bowls are a curse to pick, so I’ll just try not to overanalyze this. Auburn sucks and Alabama is pretty good. Alabama wins 27-21.